Investors have all but priced in a quarter-point reduction in interest rates at the Federal Reserve meeting next week.

• The path for rates going into next year, however, is not entirely clear.

Why it matters: Year-end trading could be more volatile than usual, thanks to delayed government data, tariff uncertainties and the persistent worries of an AI bubble.

Zoom out: The central bank will be meeting without the benefit of some key economic data. The November jobs report, which would normally come out today, will be released on Dec. 16.

• That report and the November report on consumer prices, scheduled for Dec. 18, could reshape the market consensus about the outlook for rates if the data reignites fears of a recession or an inflationary upswing (or both).
• "With markets being forward-looking, such a development could turn risk assets lower well before evidence of an economic downturn shows up in the data," says Tyler Richey, an editor with the Sevens Report, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Zoom in: Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said last week on Fox Business that private sector and anecdotal data point to a soft labor market, justifying a rate cut in December, Reuters reported.

• But "January could be a little trickier, because we're going to get a flood of data that's released," he noted.

By the numbers: The CME federal funds tracker is now factoring in an 87% possibility of a quarter-point rate cut by Fed policymakers in December, but only a 27% chance of another such reduction at the Fed meeting in January.

What to watch: There are several wild cards that could turn up.

• More data points could emerge for either side of the AI bubble debate, in particular when Oracle releases its quarterly earnings next Wednesday.
• The Supreme Court could rule on the legality of President Trump's tariffs.
• And we may get a Fed chair nomination. If it is the odds-on favorite, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, market worry could shift from the Fed not cutting quickly enough to the Fed slashing rates much too sharply.

More investors could be gaining access to custom bond portfolios that once belonged almost entirely to the ultra-wealthy.

Why it matters: Better software is bringing fixed-income separately managed accounts, or SMAs, to smaller accounts, reshaping how high earners generate tax-efficient income.

Driving the news: IMTC, a startup that builds software that helps managers construct and trade customized bond portfolios, raised $12 million in Series A funding.

• The round, co-led by Lord Abbett, highlights rising demand for tools that move bond desks off spreadsheets and into more automated workflows.

The big picture: Municipal SMAs have become one of the largest corners of the bond market, with assets climbing from roughly $100 billion in 2008 to about $1.2 trillion today, according to Cumberland Advisors.

• The surge reflects a decade of rising advisor demand. Plus, higher yields today make such portfolio customization feel worth the effort.

State of play: The appeal is mostly about taxes, control and transparency.

• SMAs give high earners direct ownership of bonds, clearer visibility into their holdings and the ability to harvest losses when rates jump, says Jason Kephart, senior principal of multi-asset manager research at Morningstar.
• Investors can tell managers to avoid certain states or sectors, such as tobacco bonds, or lean into areas such as hospitals or specific income brackets, which they cannot do within a single fund ticker, he adds.

Zoom in: Until lately, building those portfolios was slow and messy.

• Many managers used to begin each day with an approved list of bonds, then manually matched it against what dealers were offering, often in sprawling spreadsheets, Kephart says.

By the numbers: Minimums are coming down, just not to Robinhood levels.

• IMTC says some clients have used its optimizer to shrink SMA minimums from around $10 million to $100,000 in specific strategies by automating the allocation of small bond pieces across accounts.
• Brooks Friederich, principal director of investment solutions strategy at Envestnet, says on his platform that diversified fixed-income SMAs that once required around $500,000 often now start closer to $200,000.

Reality check: The tax benefits may be available to anyone, however, the most significant dollar gains still accrue to investors with large taxable balances and meaningful state and federal tax bills.

• The biggest wins tend to come after clients max out tax-advantaged accounts and want to fine-tune what happens within a large taxable portfolio, according to Kephart.
• Kyle Gerberding, managing director at Asset Preservation Advisors, says his firm keeps its minimums higher than some rivals because very small accounts tend to trade more on emotion and may not stick with the muni portfolios during bouts of volatility.

The bottom line: Better technology is making custom fixed-income portfolios easier to build and maintain, but for now, the real edge still flows to investors with the income, assets and time horizon to use them.

Ryan Lawler covers fintech for Axios Pro Deals. If you need smart and quick intel on fintech dealmaking talk to our sales team.

Copper prices have been on a tear, rising to record highs, spurred by supply disruptions and worries over Trump's tariffs.

Why it matters: When it comes to the digital economy, copper is a precious metal vital for computer chips, EVs, data centers and just about everything that is electrified.

Zoom in: Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange have risen over 31% so far this year, touching a record high of $11,485 a metric ton on Wednesday.

• Copper prices in the U.S. have also been sharply higher in recent months, with futures climbing yesterday to nearly $5.37 a pound.

Zoom out: Disruptions at mines, including a September accident in Indonesia that killed seven workers at the second-largest copper mine in the world, have tightened supplies.

• Copper shipments were also front-loaded earlier this year in an effort to get ahead of any tariffs on the precious metal.

Threat level: The supply-demand imbalance will likely only get worse.

• "Despite strong copper demand from electrification, the current mine project pipeline points to a potential 30% supply shortfall by 2035," the International Energy Agency forecast in May.

What comes next: JPMorgan expects the copper rally to run into next year, with prices reaching $12,500 a metric ton in the second quarter of 2026.

• A key variable is demand from data center growth, which could translate into a 30% increase in copper demand from data centers next year, writes Greg Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy at JPMorgan.