Investors around the world are losing faith in traditional safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and Treasuries, fueling a fierce rally in gold.

Why it matters: Gold prices have rallied more than 17% so far this year as investors hedge exposure to Washington policy.

What they're saying: "Investment dollars flowing into gold are largely a function of the risk associated with unpredictable policy in the American political authority," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM U.S., tells Axios.

• Gold is acting as insurance against "policy fragmentation," says Paul Karger, CEO of TwinFocus, a wealth advisory firm.

Zoom in: Global investors are "calling bunk on currencies," Karger adds.

• Central banks globally are still buying U.S. Treasuries, which requires dollar exposure, however, the pace of those purchases has slowed.
• As of October, central banks owned more gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time in 30 years. This trend has continued into 2026.

Follow the money: Countries that used to keep cash in the dollar or Treasuries are looking for new stores of capital to diversify away from the U.S. Enter gold.

Zoom out: The gold rally is not just about central banks diversifying away from the policy decisions of the Trump administration, says Hakan Kaya, a senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman.

• Demand for metals broadly is spiking. Data centers that use metals are booming, which is why silver is also rallying. Geopolitical risks are also increasing. One analyst says the biggest risk to gold is if risk itself ebbs.

Reality check: Can the gold rally really keep going at this rate?

• Yes, says Russ Koesterich, a portfolio manager for the BlackRock Global Allocation Fund.
• "Unlike other assets, we can't say [gold] is overvalued. The value of gold is always what people are willing to pay [for]," he says in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

What to watch: Whether anyone in the administration starts to take the rally in gold personally.

The bottom line: The gold rally reflects a new kind of appetite for safety, driven by policy uncertainty from Washington.

• The durability of that trend depends on whether that uncertainty persists.

Four members of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks report quarterly results this week, with earnings for the group expected to grow by nearly 17%.

Why it matters: This is the "most eventful week" of the earnings season as investors weigh whether the AI darlings can keep fueling this bull market, writes José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers.

What they're saying: Earnings results from the Big Tech players come as investors have been moving out of AI names and into stocks that would benefit from additional interest rate cuts, Torres says in a note to clients.

• If tech companies can't deliver on new AI initiatives or expected profits, investors are ready to "keep rotating into the re-acceleration trades that benefit disproportionately from rate cuts amidst faster growth," he says.

State of play: Earnings this week could make or break market leadership.

• Options markets are pricing in a bigger market reaction to tech earnings from Meta and Microsoft than to the next decision on interest rates from the Federal Reserve, which comes tomorrow.
• Nvidia earnings, scheduled for late February, are being priced as the most important market event over the next month, per data from Stuart Kaiser, head of U.S. equity trading strategy at Citi.

Zoom in: Investors will focus on the "AI monetization timeline vs. AI capex guidance," writes Savita Subramanian, equity and quant strategist at Bank of America.

• Translation: How long until you make money, and how much are you wiling to spend in the meantime?
• Those questions say a lot about why Google parent Alphabet has outperformed other tech giants.
• Alphabet is the market favorite because of its monetization efforts surrounding its own chips business combined with what is seen as responsible capital expenditure.

Zoom in: Here's what to watch from each company reporting this week.

• Microsoft: Watch Azure growth, revenue performance obligations, any update on data-center spending and any signal about OpenAI's balance sheet, which also has contracts with several other Big Tech companies.
• Meta: Check its spending spree. Meta was dinged last quarter for plans to increase its capex. "The company also needs to develop AI-based revenue streams," JPMorgan notes.
• Apple: Watch for demand resilience from customers and any AI surprises. Morgan Stanley expects shares to trade sideways to slightly lower due to seasonal headwinds.
• Tesla: Focus on any full self-driving updates and customer demand amid increased competition. The stock doesn't typically trade on fundamentals, though consensus is that earnings will be lower than this time a year ago.

The bottom line: Investor reactions to earnings beats or misses could be very telling about sentiment. So far, it has been the most punishing earnings season since 2000, according to Bank of America.

• If you miss on earnings, your stock gets hammered.

The price-to-earnings growth ratio of the tech behemoths has declined to just 1.4 times, the lowest level since the bear market of 2022, according to Goldman Sachs.

Why it matters: Tech stocks now look cheaper relative to their expected returns than they have in years.

Reality check: Lower forward-looking valuations could also reflect investor uncertainty about an AI bubble.

The bottom line: Maybe tech stocks aren't so pricey after all?