Axios Markets

January 13, 2026
Stocks hit another record even as the independence of the Federal Reserve was called into question. Tech led the way, with Alphabet entering the $4 trillion club. More on that below, but first:
- Wall Street gets hit with a Washington fire hose.
- And: Gold keeps climbing. Investors say it has more room to run.
Let's get into it. All in 995 words in 4 minutes.
1 big thing: Wall Street gets hit with Trump's economic policy fire hose
Threats to Fed independence, a $200 billion mortgage bond purchase, a possible cap on credit-card interest rates and more didn't stop stocks from hitting records.
Why it matters: The fire hose of policy from Washington hasn't shaken investors, yet, who are happy to keep their eyes on the AI prize.
What they're saying: "My sense is that the bar for selling risk is set quite high," Ed Al-Hussainy, portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle, tells Axios.
- While the Trump administration is ratcheting up policy announcements that could impact markets and the economy, investors are still struggling to look away from the AI trade.
- At this point, any market selloff would have to be around "the questioning of the profitability around AI," Trevor Slaven, global head of asset allocation and multi-asset portfolio solutions at Barings, tells Axios.
Between the lines: Investors' heads are swiveling, and while they don't quite know where to look, they're certain they can't afford to sell as the Big Tech rally rages on.
- Indeed, gains in the equity market are broadening beyond Big Tech, making it an even healthier bull market than before.
- Still, the bond market's response to the investigation of Fed chair Jerome Powell could change that.
What we're watching: "It's time for the bond vigilantes to engage with the president," Henrietta Treyz, co-founder of Veda Partners, said via text.
- Bond vigilantes are the Batman of the markets: They swoop in to sell bonds to protest fiscal or Fed policies they deem misguided.
- The Fed has control over short-term rates. But bond investors have more sway further out, in particular, the yield on the 10-year Treasury. That's what the administration is focused on, because the 10-year is tied to all kinds of consumer loans, like mortgages and auto loans.
- If the bond batmen sell their bonds, prices drop, pushing up yields, and leaving rates higher —the opposite of what the administration wants.
Threat level: "Higher bond yields are likely to cause pain to your growth portfolios, due to the interest-rate sensitivity of growth stocks," Mark Malek of Siebert Financial wrote in a note to clients.
- If the bond vigilantes rebel against threats to Fed independence or even the administration's push to lower yields through mortgage bond purchases, rates could rise, weighing on tech stocks that rely on cheap money (especially to fund their data centers).
State of play: So far, certain assets have moved in reaction to Trump administration moves.
- Gold prices rose sharply yesterday in a rush to safe havens following the Powell investigation.
- "You're seeing the bond vigilantism in gold," Slaven of Barings says.
- Bank stocks slid yesterday after Trump proposed a credit-card interest rate cap.
- Treasury yields have had some sharp swings of late, falling about 20 basis points after the mortgage bond plan was announced Thursday, and then rising some 16 basis points yesterday in the wake of the Powell investigation.
Yet, but: Did I mention that the S&P 500 and the Dow had record closes yesterday?
The bottom line: The market to watch when it comes to a response to policy from Washington will be the bond market.
2. Alphabet is Wall Street's AI darling


Alphabet's market cap hit $4 trillion, making it the second-most-valuable company in the world, right behind chip giant Nvidia.
Why it matters: The market is voting on the AI winners and losers constantly. Alphabet is king. For now.
What they're saying: "Gemini is the GOAT here," Sarah Kunst, an angel fund investor, tells Axios.
- If you look at Alphabet as Tesla (robotics, AI self-driving cars) meets OpenAI, on top of their core businesses, it's "way undervalued," she adds.
State of play: Alphabet and Nvidia are the only two members of the so-called Magnificent 7 basket of Big Tech stocks that beat the S&P 500 in 2025.
- Alphabet was considered behind in the AI race until last fall.
- That's when investors started caring about fiscal responsibility: Alphabet spends the lowest proportion of its revenue on AI capex among the hyperscalers.
- Alphabet's AI model, Gemini, is also getting serious street cred: Apple confirmed yesterday that it would use Gemini to run its AI-powered Siri.
- Walmart, meanwhile, is using it as part of an AI-powered shopping effort.
Yes, but: A price-to-earnings ratio of 32 isn't exactly screaming more room to run for Alphabet.
- But growth investors would caution that valuations are always elevated for tech winners.
- If you paid attention only to valuations, you would have missed out on all the major Big Tech stocks that now define our market.
The bottom line: The AI winners and losers are still being defined, especially for those who believe we are in the first inning of this technological revolution.
- But for now, Wall Street has a front-runner.
3. The gold rally keeps going


Gold continues defying gravity and climbing higher, after already rallying over 60% in 2025.
Why it matters: The precious metal could have more room to run as policy uncertainty drives investors away from the dollar and toward alternative "real" assets.
What they're saying: "The vast majority of investors are totally underweight gold," Bob Elliott, chief investment officer at Unlimited Funds, tells Axios.
- Gold continues to prove itself as the ultimate "hard currency," he says.
Zoom out: Investors are seeking alternatives to the U.S. dollar as faith in American financial institutions as the best place to store your cash erodes.
- Enter gold.
What we're watching: Whether the gold party can keep going.
Got tips? Email me at [email protected]. I would love to hear from you about anything that may be of interest for our investor audience.
Thanks to Jeffrey Cane for editing and to Carolyn DiPaolo for copy editing. See you tomorrow!
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