It appears that the U.S. job market continued its long, gradual slowing in October, but did not make a clear break for the worse (or for the better).

The big picture: We're getting a labor market that is distinctly less favorable for job seekers, but it's not the kind of full-on rout you see when a recession is imminent.

• That's the cumulative implication of data released by various private firms, Federal Reserve banks and state government agencies shedding light on the October employment situation.
• With the longest government shutdown on record, now in its 38th day, economy watchers are left with artisanal economic data, which currently offers a relatively consistent picture.

By the numbers: The Chicago Fed's estimate of the unemployment rate, based on a mix of public- and private-sector data, is up to 4.36% in October. The last official government reading of the jobless rate in August was 4.32%. Not exactly a seismic shift.

• Similarly, despite a slew of announced layoffs, the actual number of people filing for unemployment benefits — as revealed by states' releases of their weekly claims numbers — remains low for now.
• JPMorgan economists peg last week's initial claims at 229,000, up a bit from 220,000 the previous week but well within the low range that has prevailed all year.
• Private-sector employment rose by 42,000 jobs in October, per data from payroll processor ADP, a rebound to positive territory after two months of contraction.

Yes, but: The ADP numbers do not incorporate government employment — and there was likely a steep decline in federal government employment in October because of the Trump administration's "deferred resignation program" that kept paying them through Sept. 30.

• That means it would be unsurprising if overall nonfarm payrolls contracted, due to the one-time reduction in federal payrolls.

Reality check: Indicators of where the job market is heading, as opposed to where it stands, do include some ominous warnings.

• Job listings site Indeed reports that postings fell to their lowest levels in four years as of Oct. 31, and that year-over-year posted wage growth has fallen to 2.5%, below the recent inflation rate.
• The New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, out this morning, shows that expectations the unemployment rate will be higher a year from now rose for the third consecutive month in October, to 42.5%.

The bottom line: There are some reasons to worry about what lies ahead for the job market, particularly in light of layoff announcements, falling job postings and workers' perceptions of conditions.

• But the actual state of things — how many people were working and earning wages — looks to have been stable in October.

Go deeper: Economist Jed Kolko has a lovely essay here on what the alternative sources of economic do and don't accomplish relative to the major government-issued reports.

Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson said it is likely that AI is already leaving a mark on the economy, though it's difficult to say how much.

What they're saying: "Some of the recent changes in hiring patterns, productivity growth, and inflation are likely to represent AI-driven change, but it is difficult to know the degree," Jefferson said in a speech at an event hosted by Germany's top central banker.

The intrigue: It was the first AI-specific speech for the Fed's second-in-command.

• Jefferson said that it is too early to tell whether AI will replace labor or complement it. He also said that the technology could ease inflationary pressures as it drives up productivity and lowers costs for businesses.

Yes, but: Jefferson added that the inflation effects could also go the other way, as many communities face spiking utility bills as a result of data center buildouts.

• "AI technology also requires data centers, which compete with other production processes for land, energy, and other inputs," he said. "I think that AI's effect on inflation is not solely downward pressure."

What to watch: Jefferson's speech comes at a tricky moment for the Fed, which is split over whether to move forward with another rate cut in December.

• We told you about the "fog" metaphor earlier this week: how Fed chair Jerome Powell described moving forward without the usual clarity provided by government data.
• Jefferson seemed to come out on the side of slowing down while driving through the fog.

"The current policy stance is still somewhat restrictive, but we have moved it closer to its neutral level that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy," Jefferson said.

• "Given this, it makes sense to proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate," he said.