Axios Macro

April 05, 2023
When the payrolls report is released on Friday, macroeconomic watchers (including us!) will be looking for the usual information about job gains, wage growth and more. But it will also be worth checking out another indicator tucked inside the report. More below.
- Plus, in a very jobs-themed edition of Macro, we look at hiring trends in the private sector. ๐ผ
Situational awareness: The services side of the U.S. economy was still expanding in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management. But its index of activity slumped to 51.2% from the prior month's 55%, thanks in part to a slowdown in new orders.
Today's newsletter, edited by Javier E. David, is 638 words, a 2ยฝ-minute read.
1 big thing: Milestone for Black workers
The economy hit a quiet milestone in recent months: The labor market is seeing more equitable employment outcomes across racial groups than it has in years.
Where it stands: For the half-century data has been available, white workers have enjoyed higher rates of employment than Black workers. That gap still exists, but it has been shrinking notably.
Why it matters: Overall, America's labor market has continued to surprise, to the upside. One real-world effect is the lasting favorable job conditions necessary for marginalized workers, including Black Americans, to reap the benefits others get much sooner.
- "The tighter that the labor market gets, the more incentivized employers are to pull [in] workers they have overlooked in the past," says Daniel Zhao, an economist at career site Glassdoor.
By the numbers: In the sluggish recovery that followed the 2008 financial crisis, the white employment-population ratio โ or the share of that population with a job โ was more than 8 percentage points above the comparable measure for Blacks, according to the Labor Department.
- But as of February, that gap has nearly shut: It's 0.3 percentage points โ the smallest differential on record, helped by big employment gains for Black men.
What they're saying: "Not every issue of inequity is resolved here โ not every job is equal," says Skanda Amarnath, executive director at research firm Employ America. "But employment is an important part of people's welfare."
Between the lines: Stronger employment gains for Black workers are the notable side effect of the hotter-than-desired labor market. That was also true in 2019, when the Black unemployment rate hit an all-time low after the decade-long expansion.
- The unemployment rate among Black Americans was 2.1 percentage points higher than the overall rate in February, a narrower spread than any time on record โ except for a four-month span in 2019, when it reached an all-time low of 1.6 percentage points.
- "On the one hand, Black workers, largely men, are enjoying a fairly robust labor market," says Michelle Holder, an economics professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice. But on the other hand, wage gains in some cases are being pressured by inflation, Holder adds.
The bottom line: It's not enough to knock them off course, but the Fed has acknowledged moves to cool inflation could ultimately hit a subset of workers particularly hard.
2. ADP says hiring cooled last month
Photo: Mario Tama via Getty Images
The private sector payrolls report released by ADP is an imperfect barometer of the government's more comprehensive jobs release.
Why it matters: It still offers insight into general hiring and pay trends among private firms. And as of March, those pointed in the direction of a cooler labor market.
What they're saying: "The jobs market shifted to a slower gear in March," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told reporters this morning.
- "Hiring demand is now coming a little more into balance with the supply," Richardson said.
By the numbers: ADP says that the private sector added 145,000 jobs last month, with the smallest firms (those with fewer than 50 employees) accounting for the bulk of hiring.
- Wage gains, as tracked by ADP, also cooled, alongside a slower pace of job gains for those who stayed in their job and for those who switched work.
- On an annual basis, wages for job-stayers rose 6.9%, the slowest pace in over a year. For context, wage growth was below 3% in the months heading into the pandemic, Richardson said.
- For job-switchers, pay growth was up 14.2% year-over-year (down from 14.4%).
The bottom line: The big-picture takeaway from ADP's data is that the labor market is less hot than in recent months, broadly in line with other jobs figures like Tuesday's report that showed a step-down in job openings.
- The government jobs report gets the final word: Economists expect the economy to have added roughly 240,000 jobs in March.
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