A central economic fact of the Biden years has been that Americans' attitudes about the economy have been highly negative despite economic data that has been good, and sometimes great.

The big picture: Economists — in the White House and elsewhere — are increasingly taking public opinion seriously, relying on a skill not often taught in the halls of academia where they earned their Ph.D.s: empathy.

• That means understanding the sense of misery facing sticker-shocked consumers as an important input, even if the data shows the rate of inflation has declined precipitously from 2022 highs.

The intrigue: This disconnect has posed a communications challenge for White House economists. Officials couldn't brag about inflation's plunge from record levels without acknowledging that average Americans feel pinched by high prices.

• Along with the usual reams of economic data, Council of Economic Advisors chair Jared Bernstein consults a Gen Z staffer, dubbed in-house as the "vibe-rarian."
• This staffer, Molly Opinsky, at times updates Bernstein on the economic vibes observed on social media platforms including TikTok.
• One example: Groceries started showing up in TikTok videos of shopping "hauls" — when influencers post videos about their purchases — along with complaints about the high prices at the supermarket.

What they're saying: The feeling among Biden's top economists is that such posts are not the definitive economic narrative, but they shouldn't be totally discounted.

• "People are the best arbiters of how they're feeling about the economy," Bernstein tells Axios.
• Bernstein added: "I just think it's very hard to do this job effectively absent empathy, absent trying to understand what people are going through."

The big picture: Most economists taking stock of key indicators in recent years still see good news: rising, though still historically low unemployment, and inflation rates almost back to normal.

• Consumer sentiment as measured by the University of Michigan has rebounded from its historic low. It rose slightly in August for the first time in months, but remains unusually low for an economy with an unemployment rate of 4.3% and inflation below 3%.
• "I've never seen a divergence between the hard economic statistics and the vibes as large as we saw in the past few years — not even close," said Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan.
• "The greater the disjunction between vibes and reality, the more it calls for [an] understanding of what people are feeling," Wolfers adds.

Flashback: How to communicate good news alongside a backdrop still considered bleak by voters is not new. As the economy continued a slow recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, the unemployment rate was falling but remained at high levels.

• "There was a running debate on the communications team between people who wanted to celebrate good news and those who thought the American people weren't ready to hear that celebration," Jason Furman, the former CEA chair under Obama, tells Axios.
• "Our communications team did not want to talk about things getting better when they thought people still felt bad."

Some economists outside government have tried to understand the mismatch between sentiment and data in an effort to gauge how it might ultimately impact economic activity.

• "I would love to give more credit to my people for trying to understand the true feelings of consumers," Camelia Kuhnen, an economics professor at the University of North Carolina, tells Axios. "But this is not an exercise in empathy. It is just a mathematical calculation."
• Kuhnen acknowledged that the post-pandemic economy has upped the profile of sentiment gauges: "Are there other questions we should be asking of the American public that will provide us with a level of understanding that's way better than what we have now?"

Between the lines: Economists tend to focus on rates of change, while everyday consumers tend to focus on levels. That is the disconnect now: The rate of price growth is slowing, but the level of prices is still high.

Zoom out: Throughout the inflation shock, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged pain felt by the American public in opening remarks at a press conference.

• Two years ago at Jackson Hole, Powell warned about "pain to households and businesses" from higher interest rates — but acknowledged the failure to bring inflation under control would mean far greater pain.
• This year's Jackson Hole symposium begins Thursday evening, with Powell scheduled to speak Friday morning.