Axios Macro

November 14, 2024
Companies are already trying to move more production activity closer to home, reflecting global economic shifts, even as President-elect Trump promises a new wave of economic nationalism. We look at a new survey offering evidence below.
- Plus, the latest sign that inflation is still on the warm side.
Situational awareness: Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is to speak on the economic outlook in Dallas this afternoon at 3pm ET. Webcast is here, or look for our coverage on Axios.com.
Today's newsletter, edited by Ben Berkowitz and copy edited by Katie Lewis, is 717 words, a 3-minute read.
1 big thing: The shift to global reshoring is already happening
The global trade order is set to come under new pressure as Trump returns to the White House. But companies' pushes to reshore business activity and reduce dependence on China are already well underway, per a new survey.
Why it matters: The incoming Trump administration — with its promises of big tariffs and pressure on companies to move activity inside U.S. borders — may accelerate shifts in how multinationals manage their supply chains. But it doesn't change their direction.
- Companies have been adjusting to a fragmented world by relocating more activity closer to where goods are sold, reading the tea leaves that geopolitical fragmentation is here to stay.
State of play: The latest evidence is from a survey, conducted by management consultancy Bain, of CEOs and COOs of mostly $1 billion-plus multinational companies.
- It found that 81% plan to bring their supply chains closer to home, up from 63% just two years ago.
- Those efforts are underway, but far from finished. Only 2% of respondents had fully completed their reshoring or near-shoring plans.
- The share of companies looking to move activity out of China is up to 69%, from 55% two years ago.
Flashback: For a decade, a series of challenges made businesses seek to shorten supply chains and shift manufacturing activity closer to where those goods are sold.
- The election of Trump in 2016 and other nationalist leaders, ensuing trade wars, and tension between China and the West have made companies more eager to guard against geopolitical risk.
- The experience of supply disruptions due to the pandemic and worries about the carbon footprint of long, complex supply chains fueled a new focus on resilience.
Zoom out: All that has translated into "reshoring," bringing production back to home markets; "nearshoring," moving production to closer geographies; and "friendshoring," locating more activity to places with good diplomatic ties.
- Add one more to that lexicon: "split-shoring," or locating more production to within the markets where goods are ultimately sold.
What they're saying: "The desire to shift has not weakened," Hernan Saenz, a Bain senior partner, tells Axios. "Instead, it has strengthened in the last couple of years."
- "What I find surprising is there was already a push in this direction, even before all of these nationalistic governments were elected, and what people found was the push is really hard."
- "And yet, even in a world where people have already tried to do this and found it hard, they're still going to do more of it."
Of note: The survey was completed before last week's election results. But Trump's victory, and his emphasis on economic nationalism, will likely be "yet another accelerator" for the underlying trends.
- "The next time I run this survey, I won't be surprised if the numbers go even higher," Saenz said.
2. Wholesale prices show still-simmering inflation


Another day, another data point signaling the war on inflation may not be completely won just yet.
Driving the news: The Producer Price Index showed a 0.2% rise in wholesale prices in October, or 0.3% when food and energy are excluded. The core number is a bit above analysts' forecasts — a reminder that while inflation has receded, it hasn't entirely dissipated.
- Year-over-year PPI was up 2.4% for the 12 months ended in October, up from 1.9% in September.
Yes, but: One of the biggest drivers of the surge was a rise in prices for portfolio management services, up 3.6%. That mainly reflects buoyant financial markets rather than broader inflationary pressure.
- Because many asset managers charge a fixed percentage of a portfolio as their fee (1% of assets per year, for example), when the stock market soars, as it did in October, their fees rise mechanically as well.
Between the lines: Combining data from yesterday's Consumer Price Index and today's release allows forecasters to predict with reasonable accuracy where the inflation measure preferred by the Federal Reserve will end up when released later in the month.
- The Personal Consumption Expenditures index is likely to come in at 0.23%, with core PCE inflation at 0.27%, according to a tracking estimate from Oxford Economics.
- "The details from the CPI and PPI reports this week signal that prices rose at a faster pace in October, but the details don't point to accelerating inflation," senior U.S. economist Matthew Martin wrote, "leaving the door open for a rate cut in December."
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