CEO optimism jumped this quarter — but America's top executives are split over how aggressively to hire, according to a new survey by the Business Roundtable, first seen by Axios.

Why it matters: The sentiment rebound is driven by a surge in plans to increase capital spending, as companies pile into an AI investment boom that has become a critical growth engine.

• It fits with broader evidence that the economy may have firmed up a bit at the start of 2026.
• The central question for the economy in the months ahead is whether that spending translates into demand for more workers, especially as CEOs navigate a new war and an unresolved trade policy.

What they're saying: "This quarter's survey shows a notable improvement in CEO sentiment," Business Roundtable CEO Joshua Bolten said in a release.

• "The rise in the headline index is encouraging, especially the solid gains in sales and capex, but the employment picture remains a concern, with as many CEOs planning to reduce employment as increase it," Bolten added.

Between the lines: Notably, the group — comprising CEOs of America's biggest companies — surveyed about 170 members between Feb. 23 and March 6, a period that covers the first seven days of the Iran war.

• It also captures the days after the Supreme Court's landmark decision to overturn a suite of President Trump's tariffs, which the administration has vowed to reinstate through other authorities.

By the numbers: The Business Roundtable's measure of CEO confidence rose 9 points, to 89, above the index's historical average of 83 for the first time since early 2025.

• The index has steadily rebounded since sinking to a five-year low in the second quarter of 2025 in the aftermath of "Liberation Day" and the administration's whipsawing trade policy.

Yes, but: The 32% of respondents who envisioned increasing payroll in the coming months were matched by the same share who envisioned cutting.

Zoom in: The sentiment index's bounce back is mainly due to rosier plans for capital expenditures — investment in new buildings, equipment, technology and more — in the next six months.

• That was the case this quarter. A sub-index for capex soared 12 points, bringing the index to the highest level in four years. Sales expectations rose 6 points.

"The survey shows stronger CEO expectations for sales and capital, despite global uncertainty," Cisco Systems CEO Chuck Robbins, the chair of the Business Roundtable, said in a statement.

• Robbins says the results show the impact of the administration's tax and spending bill, deregulation and "the resilience of the U.S. economy."

The intrigue: Hiring plans improved 9 points, bringing the sub-index to a neutral threshold between employment growth and contraction.

• About 36% of CEOs anticipate no change in employment levels.

What to watch: The survey points to a key tension watched by economic policymakers: a potential "jobless boom," in which soaring AI-related investment helps top-line economic growth while the labor market limps along.

The bottom line: CEO sentiment spiked higher in the early days of the Iran war, with top executives firming up hiring, sales and spending plans.

• The big question is whether that cheerier mood holds.

Consumer prices were well-behaved last month on the eve of a war that has caused a March spike in energy prices.

Driving the news: Year-over-year inflation was 2.4% in February, the same as in January. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy, also was stable, at 2.5%.

• Core CPI rose 0.2% for the month, decelerating a bit from the 0.3% in January.

By the numbers: Big movers in the February numbers include apparel (up 1.3%), medical care services (up 0.6%) and airfare (up 1.4%, following a 6.5% January rise).

• Shelter prices, however, were mild, up just 0.2%. Grocery prices — "food away from home," in the BLS terminology — were up a slightly warm 0.3%.

Zoom in: There was a steep rise in the price of fuel oil in February, (up 11.1%), as well as in piped gas service (up 3.1%).

• Those and other energy prices are poised to rise further in March, reflecting a 29% rise in the price of crude oil since Feb. 27.

What they're saying: "Consumers are already seeing the impact when they fill their gas tanks; the question is how much more could prices rise and how long could the crisis last," Jim Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors, wrote in a note.

• For now, core inflation is running higher than the headline measure, "ironically held in check by energy prices over the last year," he said.