Axios Macro

November 28, 2022
We're full and thankful after a holiday break. But it will hardly be a restful week. More below as we look ahead to a jam-packed week of data and central bank communications.
- But first, a look at how the structure of the mortgage market across different countries means not all interest rate increases are created equal. 🇨🇦 🇦🇺 🇳🇴
Today's newsletter, edited by Javier E. David and copy edited by Katie Lewis, is 681 words, a 2½-minute read.
1 big thing: Where homeowners are hit the hardest


As central banks around the globe rapidly raise interest rates, policymakers outside the U.S. may find they pack more punch in terms of curbing demand.
- The reason boils down to the unique way Americans finance their homes.
Why it matters: Americans tend to take out mortgages with interest rates fixed over long periods, as much as 30 years. It means when the Fed tightens, most homeowners are unaffected.
- That's not the case in other countries in much of Europe, Australia and Canada, where spiking mortgage rates can result in higher monthly payments.
From the central banks' point of view, rate rises can cool demand in a very direct way.
Yes, but: That may be good for bringing down inflation, but it means economic pain for at least some homeowners.
Between the lines: In nations where mortgages are overwhelmingly of the variable type, "the required tightening and reduction in demand is spread broadly," says Krishna Guha, vice chair at Evercore ISI. "Rates might not have to go up as much because the increase hits incomes broadly."
How it works: When mortgage rates reset, homeowners tend to alter spending patterns in response, according to a paper released by the Dallas Fed earlier this year.
- When a reset resulted in a higher rate and steeper monthly payments, consumers didn't appear to pull back spending on big-ticket durable goods items. But there are signs they cut back elsewhere, including a corresponding decline in credit card balances.
Where it stands: As of the end of last month, about half of all variable-rate mortgage holders in Canada — those with fixed payments, roughly 13% of all mortgages — have reset at the level that would result in higher payments, the nation's central bank said last week.
- "These borrowers may need to adjust spending or use savings to meet their higher debt obligations," researchers write.
The big picture: On the one hand, officials in these countries may see the effect of tighter money ripple through the economy sooner, as existing borrowers curb spending (thus slowing demand) as a result of higher mortgage payments.
- On the other, it means the burden of policy overwhelmingly falls on homeowners. The result could be political backlash: Philip Lowe, Australia's top central banker, today delivered an unusual apology to regretful mortgage holders who leaned on the central bank's early guidance that rates wouldn't rise until 2024.
- Economists have started to warn about "mortgage dominance," the idea that central bankers let up on aggressive interest rate hikes for fear of the impact on homeowners.
What to watch: The problem may be most acute in the U.K., where rates recently soared amid broader market fallout from the failed tax cuts proposed earlier this fall.
2. Crazy Macro week ahead
Fed chair Jerome Powell at a Nov. 2 news conference. Photo: Liu Jie/Xinhua via Getty Images
Hope you enjoyed the holiday break, because we'll all be making up for it in a jam-packed week of Macro news. Here's a non-exhaustive preview of the stories we'll be watching in the days ahead.
Tomorrow: Things warm up with the release of September home price indexes, expected to show how higher rates are starting to translate into lower home prices.
Wednesday: New European inflation data is out in the early (Eastern time zone) morning, followed by a revision to Q3 GDP at 8:30am. Then, the increasingly important Job Openings and Labor Turnover data for October is out at 10am, shedding light on the inner workings of the job market.
- But the big event will be Fed chair Jerome Powell speaking on "The Economic Outlook, Inflation, and the Labor Market" at 1:30pm. It's Powell's last chance to communicate the Fed's plans before the central bank enters its public blackout in advance of a Dec. 13-14 policy meeting.
Thursday: Data on October personal income, spending and PCE inflation is due out at 8:30am. We'll be watching for whether the Fed's preferred inflation measure flashes the same benign signals that the Consumer Price Index did two weeks ago.
Friday: The big event is the jobs report for November, which will be the first major reading on whether the softening in the job market the Fed is aiming for has materialized lately.
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