Maybe it's the wisdom of the crowds or involves a little luck. But we prefer to attribute the accuracy of your 2024 economic predictions to the fact that Macro readers are a smart and savvy group.

The big picture: You saw solid growth, diminishing inflation and an intact job market in the cards for this year, and that's precisely what materialized.

By the numbers: The Axios Macro consensus — the median prediction of about 600 people who logged their guesses last December — was for 2.5% GDP growth with just 25% odds of a recession.

• The U.S. has indeed skirted recession, and GDP rose 2.7% for the relevant period (year-over-year change as of Q3).
• Inflation moderated just as Macro readers expected. The Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% in the 12 months ended in November, in line with the 2.8% that was the median reader projection.

State of play: You correctly foresaw modest cooling in the job market — but it cooled a bit more than you anticipated.

• The unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in November, slightly above the 4% of the median forecast.
• You anticipated payroll job growth averaging 195,000 a month in 2024; through November, that number was 180,000.

You also correctly projected the scale of Federal Reserve monetary easing that would arrive in 2024.

• Last December, the Fed's target interest rate was around 5.4%, and you anticipated it would fall to 4.5%.
• It's currently around 4.6%, and if the Federal Open Market Committee acts as expected at today's policy meeting by delivering another quarter-point cut in its target range, it would fall to about 4.4%.

Reality check: Macro readers' one forecasting whiff was in anticipating that those Fed rate cuts would translate into significantly lower long-term interest rates.

• The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.4% this morning, nearly a full percentage point higher than the 3.5% readers anticipated.
• Those longer-term yields are set in global bond markets, which are essentially betting that we aren't returning to the 2010s regime of persistently low inflation and low rates.

The bottom line: In making any major economic decisions this year, if you stuck with the Axios Macro consensus as your baseline, you did pretty well for yourself.

• Here's that link again, if you'd like to participate in shaping the 2025 projections.

Much of what plagued the housing market last year has persisted throughout 2024. That is one big takeaway from new data out today.

The big picture: The number of homes under construction continues to decline from the peak seen two years ago — and in November, homebuilders broke ground on new construction at a slower pace.

• Housing starts fell almost 2% from the prior month, to an annualized rate of 1.3 million, a four-month low.
• Multi-housing construction fell more than 20%, offsetting the roughly 6% increase in single-family units that were started last month.

Yes, but: While homebuilders were slow to start new projects, there are elevated rates of finished housing projects across the country — a sign that more supply might be coming online.

• Housing completions were about 2% lower than in October, but more than 9% higher than the same period a year ago.
• An indicator of building activity in the future was also positive. Housing permits — that is, approvals for construction projects — rose 6%, overwhelmingly due to higher approvals for multifamily construction.

Fed rate cuts have not translated into significantly lower mortgage rates. That is weighing on affordability and keeping homeownership out of reach for prospective buyers.

• Meanwhile, existing homeowners are hesitant to give up their low-rate mortgages.
• "The main factor that will determine the direction of the housing market will be mortgage rates, which we think will take a long while to reach a comfortable range for many buyers," analysts at Bank of America wrote in a note today.
• "Given that many homeowners locked in low rates during Covid, a mortgage rate above 6% would still be too high to promote significant activity," they added.