Axios Macro

July 24, 2023
The week ahead will be a busy one with a packed calendar (Interest rate decisions! GDP! Inflation and wage data!) of huge macro events. We have everything you need to get ready below.
- But first, a state-level look at the strong employment conditions across the country. πΊπΈ
Today's newsletter, edited by Javier E. David and copy edited by Katie Lewis, is a 674-word, 2Β½-minute read.
1 big thing: Jobs boom at the state level

The job market is humming nationally, but zoom in and you get another extraordinary snapshot: Many states across the country are experiencing all-time lows in unemployment.
Why it matters: Labor market boom times are supporting local economies, with parts of the country experiencing tighter conditions than some residents have seen in their lifetimes.
By the numbers: From Pennsylvania to Washington to Alabama, 17 states saw jobless rates hit new record lows or hold at a previously notched low in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- That group includes New Hampshire and South Dakota. Both are tied for lowest unemployment rates in the nation at 1.8% in June, both ticking down from 1.9%. (Nationally, the unemployment rate was 3.6%).
- Fourteen other states, including Florida (2.6%), Kentucky (3.8%) and Montana (2.4%), have unemployment rates hovering 0.1 or 0.2 percentage points above all-time low levels.
The intrigue: The strong labor market conditions may be politically awkward for red-state politicians who are touting big job gains and have also criticized the state of the economy under the Biden administration.
- That dynamic was on display after the state-level employment data was released Friday. Republican governors of South Dakota and Mississippi praised record-low unemployment rates β a fact the White House gleefully pointed out to reporters.
- Axios' Hans Nichols found that a number of these states are also benefiting from the manufacturing jobs boom, something to which Biden-era legislation has contributed.
What to watch: There are signs of deteriorating labor market conditions in a few states β a reality not reflected at the national level.
- That includes the nation's most populous state, California. The unemployment rate has jumped 0.8 percentage points to 4.6% since hitting a record low in August 2022.
- Nevada had the highest jobless rate among U.S. states in June, at 5.4%.
2. Get ready for a big week ahead
Fed chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference last month. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images
A month's worth of economic news is packed into three days this week. Here's what to expect β and what we'll have learned once the dust settles.
Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve's policy committee announces results of its two-day meeting and chair Jerome Powell holds a news conference. The Federal Open Market Committee looks highly likely to raise interest rates another quarter percentage point, to just under 5.5%.
- The intrigue: How firmly the committee (in its statement) and Powell (in his news conference) will stick to tentative plans to hike one more time this year. Given signs inflation is coming down, will they even crack the door to this being the end of the rate-hiking campaign?
On Thursday morning, the Commerce Department releases its first estimate of second-quarter growth. Analysts expect it to show a 1.7% rate of growth in the April through June period, which would represent a mild deceleration from the start of the year.
- Also Thursday, the European Central Bank holds its policy meeting, which could feel a little repetitive to those who follow the Fed the day before. The ECB is on track to raise its target interest rate another quarter-point, and ECB watchers will be scrutinizing President Christine Lagarde's news conference for hints of how much more is to come.
Thursday afternoon, the Fed's Board of Governors holds an open meeting to discuss tighter capital rules for big banks that have been developed by Michael Barr, the Fed's vice chair for supervision.
- There could be some fireworks, as governor Michelle Bowman, a Trump appointee, has pretty explicitly said she thinks the approach is misguided.
Thursday evening (Friday morning in Tokyo), the Bank of Japan concludes its policy meeting and could reevaluate its policy of yield curve control.
Friday, it's about the data. June personal income, spending and Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data β the latter the inflation measure the Fed focuses on β are all out, and expected to show decelerating inflation.
- Then, the Employment Cost Index is to be released. The gold standard measure of worker compensation is expected to show a 1.1% rise in wages and benefits in Q2, continuing a gradual deceleration that gives the Fed some comfort that a wage-price spiral is not setting in.
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