Add a new term to your list of global economics catchphrases: the triple pivot.

The big picture: That's what IMF leadership believes the world's nations need to accomplish over the coming years to ensure a prosperous future. But as the term suggests, it won't be easy — and contains some internal contradictions that will bedevil global policymakers.

• The first pivot, already underway, is for central banks to cut interest rates to adjust to the return of more modest inflation.
• The second pivot is for nations to tighten fiscal policy to improve global public debt's (currently ominous) trajectory.
• The third is to make reforms and investments that will lift productivity, ease the burden of aging and shrinking populations, and adapt to climate change.

State of play: This is all occurring against a backdrop of a global economy which, at a minimum, no longer can enjoy the tailwind created by deepening global trade ties that helped propel the world economy for decades.

• At a news conference this morning, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva noted that the fund's projection for 3.1% annual growth five years from now is the lowest medium-term outlook in decades.
• Trade "is no more a powerful engine of growth," she said. "We live in a more fragmented global economy."

Reality check: The elements of the IMF's recommended pivots include tensions with each other.

• Central bank monetary easing may reduce governments' urgency to tighten their fiscal policies because lower interest rates make the carrying cost of debt less burdensome.
• Reducing deficits while simultaneously making long-term investments to enhance growth potential is theoretically plausible but harder to execute in practice, particularly in a world of wary bond investors.

Driving the news: These tensions are already apparent in today's headlines.

• The French government is facing backlash from bond markets on its fiscal plans.
• Moreover, the U.K. government is preparing a budget that will aim to both put revenues and spending in balance for day-to-day government activities while investing in projects with longer-term payoffs. (Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves outlined the plans in an op-ed this morning).

Between the lines: Given those challenges, Georgieva didn't sound particularly confident this morning that the triple pivot will land.

• "The global economy is in danger of getting stuck on a low-growth, high-debt path," she said.
• "That means lower incomes and fewer jobs," she added. "It also means lower government revenues, so less investment to support families and fight long-term challenges like climate change. These are anxious times. "

Economists expect recent economic disruptions — the Boeing strike and hurricanes in the southeast — to weigh on labor market data. But the impact on unemployment insurance filings last week was lower than expected.

By the numbers: There were 227,000 new unemployment filings for the week ending Oct. 19, dropping from the 242,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said this morning.

• Continuing claims, or the number of Americans on unemployment rolls, rose to roughly 1.9 million — the highest since November 2021 and a sign that finding a job is getting harder.

What they're saying: "The assumption was that Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike (having knock on effects at suppliers who were furloughing staff) would keep claims more elevated," ING chief economist James Knightley wrote in a note.

• Instead, it might be the case that the "previous spike caused by Hurricane Helene had faded more quickly and significantly than thought," Knightley added, noting he expects labor market data volatility in the coming weeks.

Why it matters: The Boeing strike, which is expected to hit the plane-maker's suppliers, alongside effects from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, makes it difficult to get a read on the labor market.

What to watch: Boeing workers rejected a new contract offer, prolonging a strike that has lasted for six weeks and risking more job market fallout.

• One of its suppliers, Spirit AeroSystems — which Boeing plans to acquire — furloughed hundreds of workers, effective next week. It also warned of layoffs if the Boeing strike continued.

What's next: October jobs numbers are due out next Friday. A Fed official said the strike and hurricanes may subtract more than 100,000 jobs from U.S. payrolls.