The U.S. and Great Britain announced a deal that marks the first de-escalation of trade tensions in the Trump era.

Why it matters: Trump imposed across-the-board tariffs that shocked global financial markets and major allies alike. This is the clearest evidence yet, though, that there exist off-ramps and potential for de-escalation.

• But a deal with the U.K. is the low-hanging fruit of trade deals, and there are no guarantees that the dealmaking with be as fast and smooth with bigger trading partners that have more fraught trade and geopolitical relationships with the U.S.

Details: The universal 10% tariff on U.K. imports will remain. However, tariffs on U.K. autos will be lowered from 27.5% to 10%, with a quota of 100,000 vehicles.

• "We started at 10% and ended at 10%, and the market for America is better," Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters today.
• The White House says the U.S. will get new access to U.K. markets for exports of beef, ethanol and machinery.

The big picture: It's not hard to see why the U.K. deal is the first off the blocks. The degree to which this deal is a guidepost for other nations is unclear.

• Trump hates trade deficits, but the U.S. sells more across the pond than it buys — a fact highlighted by Prime Minister Keir Starmer during his White House visit earlier this year.
• That trade surplus — roughly $12 billion in goods, as of 2024 — was among the reasons many were skeptical that Trump would target the U.K.
• The two nations have a "special relationship" that is unparalleled by other global allies. Starmer had been hesitant to retaliate against Trump's tariffs.

Between the lines: The deal shows how sticky the universal minimum 10% across-the-board tariff Trump has implemented might be.

• Much of the focus has been on the triple-digit rates on Chinese goods that have effectively cut off trade between the two nations.
• That is a huge economic blow, but the universal 10% rate — on top of 25% duties on steel, aluminum and autos — on a slew of countries adds to the economic turmoil, even if the higher reciprocal rates are paused until July.

The backdrop: Trump's trade agenda has dampened expectations for economic growth in the U.S. and around the world.

• The Bank of England cut interest rates for the fourth time since last summer, with some policymakers pushing for a larger cut to shield the U.K. economy. The rate decision came as news of the U.S.-U.K. trade deal leaked.
• Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey cheered the news. "It will help to reduce uncertainty," he said of the deal.
• "The U.K. is, though, a very open economy and is affected by the tariffs affecting other economies," Bailey added. "I say that because I hope the U.K. agreement, if it is the case this afternoon, is the first of many."

The big takeaway from Powell's news conference yesterday is this: The Fed thinks the job market is still quite solid and is nowhere close to seeing enough evidence of a downturn to preemptively cut rates.

Why it matters: Despite Trump's calls to enact preemptive interest rate cuts, Powell and his colleagues see an economy that is basically in balance as the trade shock begins to have its effects.

• It implies there is a high bar for making a rate move at the Fed's next policy meeting in mid-June, given a fairly limited set of new information about underlying economic conditions between now and then.
• In effect, the central bank isn't going to try to get ahead of the curve when it lacks confidence in which way the road is turning — toward higher inflation or higher unemployment.

What they're saying: "It's not a situation where we can be preemptive, because we actually don't know what the right response to the data will be until we see more data," Powell said.

• He contrasted this moment with 2019, when the Fed cut interest rates three times as a preemptive move. The downshift in the economic data was mild, and inflation then was also below the central bank's 2% target.
• This time, he noted, inflation has been above target for four straight years, and remains elevated. That leaves the central bank with fewer degrees of freedom to react quickly to weaker job market data.

The bottom line: Don't expect interest rate cuts unless and until the unemployment rate or other job market indicators get a lot worse, and fast.