Axios Macro

September 03, 2025
🫣 Today, we look at the latest job openings and turnover data, out this morning — and don't like what we see. (Hint: Neither will the Federal Reserve.)
- Plus, what's next in the legal battle over whether President Trump can fire Fed governor Lisa Cook.
Today's newsletter, edited by Ben Berkowitz and copy edited by Katie Lewis, is 897 words, a 3½-minute read.
1 big thing: New evidence the job market is softening


On the surface, the latest data on job openings, hirings and firings points to a steady-as-she-goes labor market. Beneath that surface, it shows a job market with widening cracks.
Why it matters: Today's release adds to the evidence that the labor market could use some help, as the Federal Reserve weighs an interest rate cut two weeks from today.
- Revisions to June numbers pointed to much higher rates of firings and discharges than first reported, matching a pattern of negative revisions seen in job growth data.
- In July, the number of unemployed people surpassed the number of job openings for the first time in four years.
Driving the news: The number of job openings fell by 176,000 in July and the rate ticked down to 4.3%, matching its lowest since mid-2020.
- At the height of the post-pandemic job market boom, in the spring of 2022, there were more than 2 job openings for every unemployed person. As of July, that ratio has fallen to 0.99.
- "This is yet another data point underscoring how this job market is frozen and it's difficult for anyone to get a job right now," wrote Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, in a note.
By the numbers: Other key data points in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey were of the nothing-to-see-here variety. The hiring rate was stable, as were the rates at which people voluntarily quit their jobs and were discharged or laid off.
- There were, however, sharp negative revisions to June numbers, particularly in layoffs and discharges.
- The number of job openings in June was revised down by 80,000, and the number of people who lost their jobs involuntarily that month was revised up by a whopping 192,000 from the earlier estimate.
The intrigue: The July jobs report published in early August also showed huge negative revisions to payroll employment for May and June.
- That the pattern has repeated in JOLTS implies that employers who submit their survey responses to the Bureau of Labor Statistics promptly are doing fine, but that those who submit surveys late — and thus are only incorporated in revisions — are flashing signs of weakness.
Of note: There was a particularly steep drop in the number of job openings in health care, which has been an outsized contributor to overall job creation in recent years.
- The job openings rate in health care and social assistance was 5.1% in July, down from 5.8% in June and 6.3% a year earlier.
Between the lines: This all adds up to ammunition for monetary doves on the Fed's policy-setting committee who believe that the labor market has more underlying weakness than the headline unemployment rate — a still-low 4.2% — would suggest.
What's next: Friday brings the August employment report, which takes on outsized importance at this delicate policy juncture. Will it affirm the weak job growth reported for June and July or revise it away?
- Key inflation data then arrives next week, in advance of the Fed meeting.
2. What's next for Lisa Cook
Cook is denying allegations of mortgage fraud for the first time as the Trump administration looks set to dial up its attacks.
Why it matters: Cook's lawyers appeared to separate the legitimacy of those attacks from whether Trump can legally fire her — an issue they see at the heart of the legal battle.
- Now they are confronting the allegation head-on in a historic case that will decide how much Trump — and presidents down the line — can control the central bank.
What they're saying: Attorney Abbe Lowell says that Cook "did not ever commit mortgage fraud," according to a new filing asking a federal court to keep Cook in the post throughout litigation.
- In a previous statement, Cook said she was "gathering the accurate information to answer any legitimate questions," with no outright denial.
The big picture: In the filing, Lowell also argued that inconsistencies amounted to "pre-office conduct" that should have been addressed by the White House and the Senate before her initial confirmation in 2022.
- Lowell added that such conduct is "generally not grounds for removal," noting it "removes the incentive to sit on evidence of pre-office conduct to be used for a subsequent administration to remove."
Between the lines: When Cook first sued Trump, Lowell said in the complaint that the potential that Cook "mislabeled" properties would not amount to cause — that is, whether Trump has legal cover to oust Cook.
- During Friday's hearing, D.C. federal Judge Jia Cobb asked Lowell and Department of Justice lawyers if the legitimacy of the allegations mattered for the question of "cause."
- DOJ lawyers argued that the courts should defer to the president for the definition of cause.
What to watch: Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulte, the administration's most outspoken Fed critic who led the charge against Cook, will host a press conference tomorrow at 10am ET, he posted on X.
- At the same time, top White House economist Stephen Miran will make his case to be a Fed governor at a hearing before the Senate Banking Committee.
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