The decisive Democratic wins yesterday contain a simple message to people who set economic policy: Americans really, really want stuff to be cheaper.

The big picture: Economists take comfort in the fact that the rate of inflation has come down dramatically from its 2022 peak, and that tariffs are likely to cause only a one-time price bump.

• But the level of most prices has continued drifting upward for years, amounting to a significant increase in the cost of many necessities.

• It suggests that Trump administration and Federal Reserve officials who see the war on inflation as pretty much won are out of step with voters, who want to see prices fall (though that implies economy-wide deflation, which can be highly unpleasant in its own ways).

Between the lines: Republicans learned a dire lesson about economic vibes yesterday: You can't convince people your policies are working if they're paying 20% more for a cup of coffee.

• The GOP, usually seen as stronger on economic questions, suddenly finds itself in the same hole Democrats have been struggling to climb out of for years.

State of play: The economy, in a lot of ways, is just fine. Growth is robust, inflation is a fraction of what it was, and the labor market is, for now, in a (tenuous) equilibrium.

Yes, but: The vibes are awful and getting worse. The thing that doomed Democrats in 2024 hasn't gotten particularly better since.

By the numbers: Headline inflation has been 3% over the last year, not a particularly scary rate. But that's on top of years of elevated inflation, such that the cumulative price change is creating ongoing sticker shock.

• Grocery prices are up 29.2% since February 2020, rents of primary residences about the same, and household energy prices are up 40%.
• This year, the subdued headline inflation masks some individual, frequently purchased items that have surged in price in 2025. Coffee costs 20% more than it did a year ago, when then-candidate Trump promised grocery prices would go down; ground beef, 15% more; and so on.

Zoom out: Fox News' exit polling of the New Jersey governor's race found voters who prioritized the economy backed Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a former prosecutor, over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a lifelong businessman.

• ABC exit polling found the economy was the top issue for Virginia voters — and they broke for Democrat Abigail Spanberger by 20 points.

The bottom line: Trump says he's solved inflation. So far, voters don't seem enthusiastic about the solution.

With government-issued jobs reports on ice thanks to the shutdown, new numbers from payroll processor ADP will have to sate our thirst for employment data.

Driving the news: The firm says private sector employers added 42,000 jobs in October — a rebound after shedding more than half as many positions the previous month.

• It was the first time employers added jobs since July in ADP's data.

Why it matters: "There has been a recovery from the relatively short-lived period of negative jobs growth, but the recovery is tepid and it is not broad-based," ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told reporters this morning.

• "While we cheer positive job gains in the month of October, we note that the hiring is a slowdown from what we reported earlier this year — and more concentrated," Richardson added.

Between the lines: As the Fed debates whether to cut interest rates again in December — and with little government employment data to go on — the ADP numbers offer some ammunition to both sides.

• On the one hand, the rebound into positive territory points to a job market that isn't completely falling apart, in which case a rate cut would not be needed.
• On the other hand, 42,000 jobs isn't a particularly robust reading, so job market worriers still have plenty to fret about.

Zoom in: Among the few categories that added jobs were education and health care; trade, transportation and utilities; and financial activities.

• Other sectors, including leisure and hospitality and professional/business services, shed positions.
• The October jobs report, originally scheduled to be released Friday, will be delayed as the government shutdown drags on.

Of note: Also out this morning, the New York Fed released its quarterly data on household credit and debt. It showed household debt increased by $197 billion in Q3.

• Delinquency rates were stable for most categories of debt, except for student loans, for which missed payments are now appearing on credit reports.