The Social Security trust fund is on track to run out of money in a decade — but that day would come three years earlier if several of former President Trump's proposed policies are enacted, according to new analysis from a fiscal watchdog group.

The big picture: Under current law, the trust fund is set to be depleted in 2034, triggering automatic benefit cuts absent Congressional action. Trump's policies would move that day of reckoning to 2031, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget finds.

• Trump seeks to eliminate the taxation of Social Security benefits and end taxes on tips and overtime income, which would reduce tax revenue to support the program.
• He also seeks tariffs that CRFB finds could add to inflation — and hence the Social Security cost of living adjustment — and reduce taxable income. Moreover, amped-up deportations would reduce the number of workers paying into the system.
• The group finds that Vice President Kamala Harris' proposed policies would have only modest effects, speeding up insolvency by "several weeks or months."

By the numbers: In CRFB's analysis, the combined Trump policies are projected to worsen the net financial position of the Social Security system by $2.3 trillion in 2035, about 1.8% of that year's projected payroll.

• That would mean a 33% automatic cut to benefits in 2035, not the 23% projected under current law.
• (It's worth noting that Congress would almost certainly take some action to prevent benefits from falling so precipitously.)

Reality check: Both candidates have pledged to protect the wildly popular Social Security program. But neither has offered proposals that might delay or prevent its insolvency.

• Every year that passes, the scale of the policy changes needed to bring the program into fiscal balance increases because there is less time remaining to phase them in.
• It has been known for decades that demographic forces would eventually strain Social Security's finances as the extra-large Baby Boom generation leaves the workforce and goes from paying into the system to receiving benefits.
• But there has been no political consensus — or will — to either gradually trim benefits or raise taxes to stabilize the program.

What they're saying: "While we can still protect current retirees if we act quickly, they will be hit with annual benefits cuts of roughly $16,000 if our political leaders continue to drag their feet," CRFB president Maya Macguineas tells Axios.

• "Frankly, every lawmaker should explain to today's retirees why that is the plan they are currently embracing," she adds. "And the last thing we should do is adopt measures that make the program's finances even worse."

The other side: "The so-called experts at CRFB have been consistently wrong throughout the years," said Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt in a statement to Axios.

• "President Trump delivered on his promise to protect Social Security in his first term, and President Trump will continue to strongly protect Social Security in his second term."

The Federal Reserve is in the process of bringing down interest rates to roll back increases during the inflation crisis.

• The same is true of the Fed's other policy tool. Since 2022, it has been unwinding the massive balance sheet built up during the prior crisis: COVID-19.

Why it matters: There's no playbook for when this process should stop. The last time the Fed tried shrinking its balance sheet — also known as quantitative tightening — it ended in market chaos and a return to bond buying. Officials want to avoid a repeat.

• In a speech this morning, Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan said that scenario looks unlikely: Bank reserves are ample enough to keep funding market rates steady, despite unusual fluctuations in rates in recent weeks.

What they're saying: "As the supply of liquidity declines, the financial system needs to redistribute liquidity to the firms that need it most. That process isn't always frictionless," Logan said at an annual meeting of The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

• "[F]rom a policy perspective, I think it's important to tolerate normal, modest, temporary pressures of this type so we can get to an efficient balance sheet size," Logan added.
• Logan is an influential voice on the balance sheet: Before the Dallas Fed, she ran the markets group at the New York Fed.

Between the lines: The Fed's balance sheet doubled to more than $9 trillion at the beginning of 2022 as it stepped in to support the economy. Bonds purchased then are now rolling off the balance sheet, which is gradually shrinking.

• On its face, it might appear the Fed's policy tools are working against one another: cutting rates on the one hand while withdrawing support for financial markets on the other.
• Logan says that is not the case, that both tools keep a level of restrictiveness on the economy. "Those two normalization processes work in tandem and are consistent in my view," Logan said.