Solid growth. Jobs aplenty. Falling inflation. Low recession odds. That, in nine words, is the Axios Macro Consensus — what readers of this newsletter expect to see in the year ahead.

Why it matters: To the degree your outlook is shared by other consumers and business decision-makers, it bodes well for the economy. Much of last year's apprehension has evaporated this time around.

The details: Among the nearly 600 Macro readers who answered our call, the median participant put recession odds at 25%. The consensus figure was 50% this time last year.

• The median entrant saw 2.5% GDP growth over the next year.
• You saw the economy adding 195,000 jobs a month, which would be only a mild deceleration from 232,000 jobs a month added so far in 2023.
• Your median expectation for the unemployment rate at the end of next year was 4% — barely above the current 3.7% and low by any historical standard.

By the numbers: Macro readers anticipate inflation of only 2.8% over the next year.

• And we asked about the Consumer Price Index, which usually runs a bit hotter than the Personal Consumption Expenditures indicator the Fed targets. As a result, your 2.8% CPI expectation is only a few ticks above the 2% PCE inflation the Fed aims for.

State of play: That anticipation of falling inflation aligns with your expectation for Fed policy rates, which the median entrant saw falling to 4.5% by year-end, from about 5.4% now. Your projection roughly aligns with that of Fed officials themselves.

• You see the 10-year Treasury yield falling further, to 3.5% next December from 3.91% this morning.

Between the lines: Your consensus forecast — falling inflation, monetary easing, continuing growth — would amount to a Goldilocks scenario for financial assets, justifying the stocks rally over the last few weeks.

Of note: It's not just reader consensus being rosy. There was also much less variance in the responses than one year ago.

• Only 11 entrants, for example, forecast inflation of 4% or higher. Not 11% of entrants, 11 individuals!
• One year ago, the standard deviation — a statistical measure of variance — in your projections for job growth was 266,000. This year, it's down to 54,000.

The bottom line: Not only do most Macro readers anticipate benign economic conditions in 2024 compared with a year ago, but the degree of consensus is stronger.

We asked you to predict the biggest economic surprise in 2024. Here is a sampling:

Many of you predicted the biggest shock would involve a potential recession.

• Lomar, an investor, said: "We actually stick the soft landing without collapsing on jobs, though we see continued modest cooling." (Many others agreed.)
• By contrast, economist Mike D. said there would be "a short and shallow recession."

T. Grant, an entrepreneur and business owner, said: "A majority of Americans finally understand the economy remains strong."

🦅 🕊️ There were plenty of predictions about what the Fed does in 2024.

• One Macro reader, JW, said the Fed will slash rates and "consumers will seize the opportunity of lower rates," which will stir inflation and the "Fed will raise rates again."

🏢 Mike, a business owner, predicted 2024 would be the year of the office comeback. Relatedly, Bill G. said "commercial office space comes back strong via repurposed uses."

• Angel R. predicted more banking issues next year "due to commercial real estate loan defaults."
• Jesse W. an economist, said the biggest economic surprise would be a shadow banking crisis: "Some hedge funds/PE funds reveal some big unrealized losses and the Fed has to step in to prevent contagion."

Two other topics were top of mind for readers: artificial intelligence and the 2024 elections.

• Wilbert, an entrepreneur, said AI will impact GDP less than expected. Meanwhile, D. Naquin said that AI won't be "much of a factor."
• On 2024, James V. predicted a "razor-thin" victory in the presidential election, in which the result is "too close to call."

💥 Finally, this may be the prediction we most hope comes true: Doug, a financial industry professional, says in 2024 "a joint Taylor Swift/Beyonce world tour is organized to single handedly avert a recession."