Adaptation can't outrun climate change, and rich farming nations — including the U.S. — face jeopardy despite their resources, according to a major new paper on global warming and crop production.

Why it matters: It's the first look at climate effects on staple crops to weigh farmers' "real-world adaptation measures" and fold them into projections of future damage, a summary states.

• The study projects losses for all staples analyzed except rice, though there's lots of regional variation.

The big picture: The Nature paper estimates that for every 1°C of temperature rise, global food production capacity falls by 120 calories per day per person.

• "If the climate warms by 3 degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast," said co-author Solomon Hsiang, a Stanford environmental policy professor, in a statement.
• Hot and relatively low-income regions show more adaptation to date than wealthier breadbaskets in more moderate climates. That's one reason future risks are so high.

State of play: The authors analyze over 12,600 regions in 54 countries, looking at six staple crops — corn, soybeans, rice, wheat, cassava and sorghum.

• It's "one of the most comprehensive samples of subnational crop yields ever assembled," the study states.
• It sees future gains in some areas but declines on a global basis for most crops.

Threat level: One reason for the conclusions? Realism.

• A clear-eyed look at how farming evolves is needed, the paper states, comparing its work to prior models that assume optimal responses.
• In reality, financial constraints, market failures, human error and more influence what happens on the ground.

What they found: Under a moderate emissions growth case, central estimates in 2100 — with adaptation and income growth — are -12% for corn, -13.5% for wheat, and -22.4% for soybeans, to name three.

• But the uncertainty bands are quite big because they're looking well into the future.

What's next: Adaptation and higher wealth alleviate 6% of global losses in 2050 and 12% in 2100 in that moderate emissions scenario.

• That's RCP 4.5 for you wonks out there, which still sees enough emissions to warm the world beyond Paris Agreement targets.
• The paper also explores a runaway emissions case (RCP 8.5), though many scientists no longer consider this CO2 growth likely.

Zoom in: Check out the country-level projections for various crops.

• The paper estimates that even with adaptation, parts of the U.S. could see corn and wheat declines in the 25% range in the moderate emissions case. Here's the same map under runaway emissions.
• Nearer term, climate change will drag global crop yields down by 8% in 2050, "regardless of how much emissions rise or fall in the coming decades," a separate Stanford summary notes.

The bottom line: Adaptation to a hotter world is vital and helps temper crop losses — but it has its limits.

⏱️ Lobbying efforts are raging as Senate GOP leaders look to pass reconciliation plans before July 4 — and hundreds of billions of dollars in IRA tax credits hang in the balance.

• The latest: New efforts to sway lawmakers include all seven regional hydrogen hubs, which are urging reversal of plans to kill hydrogen credits. The quick sunset would thwart hundreds of thousands of projected jobs and $140 billion in economic benefits, a letter states.
• What we're watching: Elsewhere, domestic battery supply chain companies are pushing for several changes, including longer extension of tax credits for critical minerals projects.

⚛️ DOE is inviting industry applications to build test reactors outside of the national labs through an agency authorization process.

• Why it matters: The pilot program is an early step under White House exec orders aimed at speeding commercialization of next-wave designs.
• What we're watching: DOE is seeking three plans that have a "reasonable chance" of operating by July 2026.

👍 Commonwealth LNG said it received the final FERC go-ahead for its planned Louisiana project.

• Why it matters: The Kimmeridge-owned project says it's planning a final investment decision this year and first LNG production in 2029.

⏯️ DOE is reviving the National Coal Council, an advisory body that lapsed in 2021 after nearly four decades, it announced.

• Why it matters: It signals further Trump 2.0 efforts to bolster coal, which has been on a long-term decline in the power mix.

Fresh info is emerging about Ford's affordable EV project, due in 2027.

Why it matters: Ford, like other global automakers, is scrambling to make EVs profitably and still compete with lower-cost Chinese brands.

Catch up quick: In early 2024, Ford CEO Jim Farley revealed a small California-based "skunk works" team, led by a former Tesla engineer, to develop a low-cost EV platform.

• The project called the Advanced Electric Vehicle Program has grown to 500 team members with offices in three locations.

Driving the news: Ford is keeping most details under wraps, but Lisa Drake, who leads Ford's EV industrial plan, revealed nuggets to investors last week at a dinner hosted by Bernstein's lead automotive analyst, Daniel Roeska.

State of play: The EV platform will support up to eight body styles, she told the group, including trucks, crossovers, and possibly sedans.

• "With eight body styles and potential global applicability, it's intended to underpin Ford's EV strategy for much of the next decade," Roeska wrote.

Zoom in: Ford has already said the first product will be a mid-sized pickup truck, but Roeska inferred from Drake's comments that it may resemble an electric Ranger.

• It will use prismatic LFP batteries, developed with China's CATL and produced in the U.S., to keep costs low.

The bottom line: "Lisa Drake was explicit: Ford intends to match the cost structure of leading Chinese players. That means not just battery pricing, but full system cost from chassis and thermal systems to inverters and electronics," he wrote.

• But Ford's math hinges on federal EV support that's now hanging by a thread.

The Supreme Court has been busy since our last edition, with three key decisions landing Wednesday...

🏭 SCOTUS unanimously ruled that EPA decisions to reject multiple state ozone pollution plans can be challenged separately in regional appellate courts.

• Why it matters: It enables more sprawling legal battles over implementation of federal standards for smog-forming pollution that moves across state borders.
• Yes, but: A separate 7-2 ruling favored the D.C. circuit as the place to challenge EPA rejection of small refiners' requests for exemptions from ethanol blending mandates.
• The bottom line: Justice Clarence Thomas, who authored both rulings, made clear that venue disputes rest on whether a "nationwide scope or effect" is the "primary reason" for an EPA action. Go deeper.

⚛️ Elsewhere, SCOTUS held that Texas and oil interests can't challenge the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's permit for a privately owned temporary nuclear waste storage site.

• Why it matters: The 6-3 ruling is a win for the commission's efforts to make progress in finding a home for high-level spent fuel from commercial reactors — a longtime source of gridlock among federal and state officials.
• What's next: Look for more tussles over waste. The case was decided on procedural grounds and didn't wade into whether the NRC can license private off-site storage facilities. Full story.

"Of course China is worried...If this situation continues to escalate, then they lose quite a bit, both in terms of their energy security and Iran as a strategic card that China holds."

He's quoted in this helpful Financial Times look at the Israel-Iran war's energy and influence stakes for China.

Giphy

That's the massive amount of power needed for proposed U.S. data centers that research firm and consultancy Wood Mackenzie is tracking, per a new report.

Why it matters: Who knows how much will materialize, but it's going to be a lot — and Woodmac analysts conclude that regulated utilities are best poised to meet the growth.

• But they need to "build the plane while flying it" as massive new power users arrive that differ from traditional customers, the report finds.
• Full analysis.