Axios Generate

April 28, 2025
☕ Welcome back! We're sprinting toward May with 862 words, 3 minutes.
🎙️ Bulletin: The U.S.-Ukraine resources deal could be signed this week, the FT reports.
- The paper and other outlets report that Ukrainian officials secured a concession that past U.S. military aid will not be included.
🎸 This week in 1988, genre-bending rock greats Living Colour dropped their debut album "Vivid," which provides today's intro tune...
1 big thing: Battle lines over deep-sea mining
The UN-affiliated body that governs the seabed in international waters came out swinging — by diplo-speak standards — against White House efforts to spur deep-sea mineral mining.
Why it matters: The International Seabed Authority's statement circulated Saturday is a fresh sign of geopolitical and legal conflict that could greet new commercial efforts outside its purview.
Driving the news: "Any endeavor undertaken outside the recognized and consensual international framework, or in an attempt to circumvent international law, may incur legal, diplomatic, economic, security, financial and reputational risks," the group said.
- It adds that "circumventing" the ISA's regulatory authority would breach international law and "silence" the voices of poor and developing nations.
The big picture: The ISA, under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, is tasked with overseeing deep-sea mineral harvesting in international waters.
- But long-delayed regulations have yet to be completed. The U.S. has never ratified the treaty but has historically participated as an observer.
- Deep-sea regions could hold major deposits of manganese, nickel, copper, and cobalt bound up in nodules. But many scientists fear major damage to fragile ecosystems and species.
Catch up quick: The weekend statement adds to criticism of President Trump's executive order last Thursday.
- China, a dominant player in mineral supply chains, called the U.S. move a violation of international law.
- The country holds five ISA exploration licenses. No country or company has begun commercial extraction of mineral-rich nodules.
The other side: The White House order's section on international waters cites authority under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act.
- It also envisions regulating exploration and extraction in U.S. waters under the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act. But the industry's greatest focus to date has been in remote international tracts.
- "Both of these laws require comprehensive environmental impact assessments and compliance with strong environmental protection standards," Anna Kelly, a White House spokesperson, tells the NYT.
What we're watching: Center for Strategic and International Studies analysts have a lucid primer on the whole topic and White House moves.
- They note it's possible that the U.S. could issue licenses in the coveted Clarion-Clipperton zone that overlap with areas the ISA has designated to other nations — including China.
- "This could lead to a number of unprecedented complications and international disputes over resource governance and ownership," they say.
2. 🧁 Bonus policy notes: EVs, oil, LNG, Navy
🚗 Prominent EV startup Rivian has retained Charlie Ellsworth, a former high-level Chuck Schumer aide, as an outside lobbyist via Pioneer Public Affairs.
- State of play: The firm will work on topics including IRA tax credits and efforts to overturn an EPA waiver for California tailpipe pollution rules, a filing shows.
- Catch up quick: Across the aisle, Rivian also recently retained former Trump campaign adviser David Urban via LGL Advisors (h/t Politico Influence).
- The bottom line: EV players need muscle on both sides of the aisle with so much policy in flux.
🛢️ New Interior Department rules aim to increase oil production in the Gulf of America (renamed by the U.S. from the Gulf of Mexico).
- Why it matters: The "downhole commingling" policy, which deals with allowable pressure differences between certain reservoir layers, could boost output by 10% over 10 years, Interior said. Rigzone has more.
⚠️ Via the FT, the LNG industry is warning Trump officials that it "cannot comply with new rules aimed at forcing them to use US transport vessels by imposing levies on Chinese-built ships docking at US ports."
❌ Navy Secretary John Phelan said he's scrapping the service's climate action plan unveiled in 2022, which had goals including 65% cut in emissions from Navy operations and energy supplying them by 2030. Inside Defense has more.
3. 🛢️ Big Oil has plenty to discuss this week


Major oil and gas companies like Exxon and Shell report Q1 earnings this week.
Why it matters: Execs' with analysts could shed new light on how they see the effects of tariffs, the uncertainty around them, and the recent oil price slide.
- And I'm watching several company-specific topics.
- They include activist fund management Elliott Investments' press for more changes at BP and updates on Exxon's and Chevron's plans to build behind-the-meter gas plants to serve data centers.
What's next: BP reports tomorrow; TotalEnergies comes Wednesday; and Exxon, Chevron and Shell all report Friday.
4. ⛓️💥 Trump's boundary-breaking 100 days
In only 100 days, President Trump has swiftly reshaped the federal government: redefining the scope of executive power, testing and defying the courts, and targeting his perceived enemies.
Why it matters: The president's team has been open about his second term's "flood the zone" strategy.
- The strategy has included an especially sharp u-turn on energy and climate policies — and efforts to greatly downsize EPA, NOAA, DOE and more.
The accounting below is a selection of Axios coverage and exclusive reporting since Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20.
5. 🇨🇦 Quote of the day: climate politics edition
"[Mark] Carney did a really smart thing by repealing the consumer carbon tax, which was wildly unpopular and was basically the basis of Poilievre's campaign against him. That took the wind out of the Conservatives' sails."— University of Toronto political scientist Jessica Green
She's quoted in this NYT look at climate's low profile in Canada's election, despite Liberal Party leader Carney's lengthy resume on the topic.
- He's far ahead in the polls ahead of today's election.
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🙏 Thanks to Chris Speckhard and Chuck McCutcheon for edits to today's edition, along with the brilliant Axios Visuals team.
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