Second-quarter EV sales fell 6.3% compared to April-June of 2024, and the road ahead looks jarring with the loss of consumer purchase subsidies looming, per new Cox Automotive data.

Why it matters: While sales set a record in 2024, and the first half of 2025 narrowly did, too, the upward march was getting less consistent even before the GOP's new budget law nixed incentives.

Catch up quick: Tax incentives up to $7,500 for buying new EVs will end on Sept. 30 under the giant GOP budget bill that President Trump signed earlier this month.

• It quickly ends smaller subsidies for used EVs and credits for commercial EVs.
• Leasing incentives are also ending.

What's next: Cox analyst Stephanie Valdez Streaty, in a statement alongside the data, predicts a "rush ahead of the federal incentive phase-out, offering a short-term boost in an otherwise uncertain landscape."

• "Q3 will likely be a record, followed by a collapse in Q4, as the electric vehicle market adjusts to its new reality," she said.

State of play: The picture varies by automaker. GM sold over 78,000 EVs in the first half of 2025, more than twice the same stretch last year.

• Meanwhile, "Tesla's sales fell by more than 12% year over year in Q2, following a decline of nearly 9% in Q1," Cox notes.

What we're watching: The loss of credits isn't the only budget law provision that could affect EV sales.

• A new post on the law's impact from Columbia University's energy think tank flags new auto loan interest deductions — with income limits — for U.S.-assembled vehicles.
• "The deduction allowance largely benefits the early purchasing of lower-cost domestic gas cars, again increasing the incentive for consumers to switch away from EVs," it states.

Note: Cox Automotive's parent company, Cox Enterprises, also owns Axios.

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President Trump is threatening big new sanctions on Russia that could shake oil markets, but traders don't seem convinced that he'll follow through.

Why it matters: The price decline yesterday shows the market isn't bracing for a crude flow disruption.

• "The lack of any immediate action and the belief that these threats won't be carried out help to explain the market reaction," ING analysts said in a note.

State of play: Instead, fresh tariff threats against other trading partners are helping to push prices downward.

• Brent crude is trading at $69.24 per barrel after rising above $71 to start the week.

Catch up quick: Trump said yesterday he'll impose secondary tariffs of 100% on Russia if there's not a ceasefire in 50 days. He emphasized his authority to act alone.

• He also cited bipartisan legislation that would impose 500% tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, though lead sponsor Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) has emphasized it would give Trump discretion.
• Following through would hit China and India, both large importers of Russian barrels, especially hard.

What they're saying: "While Trump's demonstrable sensitivity to pump prices might give [Vladimir] Putin a reason at least to threaten a supply disruption, that very same sensitivity might also be a reason for Putin to wager Trump would not maximally deploy sanctions in the first place," ClearView Energy Partners said in a note.

• "At least for now, the market appears to be making the same bet," it adds.

Rest in peace to actor Michael Madsen, whose iconic turn as Mr. Blonde in "Reservoir Dogs" is captured above.

Google plans to buy up to 3 GW of energy from hydro projects owned by investing giant Brookfield, it said this morning.

Why it matters: Interest from hyperscalers is driving renewed investment in one of the oldest and largest forms of clean energy.

Zoom in: Brookfield Asset Management and Brookfield Renewable, in partnership with Google, have created what they're calling "the world's largest framework agreement for the purchase of hydroelectricity."

• The agreement includes $3 billion in contracts for power from Brookfield's Holtwood and Safe Harbor dams in Pennsylvania.

The big picture: The deal is focused on hydro assets that will be "relicensed, overhauled, or upgraded" to extend the life of the projects, the companies said.

• Older hydro assets are becoming increasingly attractive as interest in clean energy power for AI data centers soars.

Yes, but: Relicensing a hydro power plant takes an average of eight years.

Unlock the whole story, and for a steady diet of scoops and smart analysis, talk to our sales team about Axios Pro Deals.

💵 Google announced plans to invest $25 billion in data centers and other AI infrastructure over the next two years in the PJM grid region, which includes Midwest and mid-Atlantic states. Go deeper.

🛢️ Via Bloomberg, ConocoPhillips is asking regulators for permission to explore for more oil near its big Willow project in Alaska, "betting there are vast reserves of undiscovered crude in the state's Arctic north."

☀️ Saudi Arabian energy and finance companies are investing $8.3 billion to develop 15 gigawatts of wind and solar projects, marking a major expansion of renewables deployments there. Full announcement...Reuters coverage.

🌀 House Republicans want to cut NOAA's budget, but not as deeply as the White House proposal looks to pare back the weather and climate agency.

• The big picture: The new House plan would provide nearly $5.8 billion in fiscal year 2026 — a 6% cut instead of the 27% reduction in the White House budget that would end key climate research.
• The intrigue: The House spending panel's GOP leaders nonetheless look to curtail some climate work, such as banning any funds for "climate change fisheries research." Full bill...E&E News coverage.

⚡House appropriators voted along party lines yesterday to advance a fiscal 2026 energy and water spending bill backing nuclear and minerals while slashing funding for renewable energy.

• Why it matters: The draft bill — which won referral from House Appropriations' energy and water subcommittee to the full panel on a 10-5 vote — would codify Trump administration cuts at DOE's Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations.
• State of play: The committee is also looking to cut EPA's budget by 23%.
• Go deeper: Unlock the whole story, and if you need smart, quick intel on energy and climate policy for your job, get Axios Pro Policy.

🙅 NASA doesn't plan to host past versions of the congressionally mandated National Climate Assessments on its site, reversing an earlier plan, per AP and the NYT.

• Why it matters: The reports are major hubs for scientific info about how climate change affects the U.S., and the future of the next version is unclear.

That's the amount of U.S. coal-fired power capacity currently slated to go offline by the end of 2028, per EIA estimates.

Why it matters: Keep an eye on this one — the retirement picture is getting cloudier as power demand grows and some companies reconsider plans.

• Coal has long been declining in the country's power mix and provided 16% of U.S. electricity last year.
• Trump 2.0 officials argue that lost generation could threaten reliability, and they're also paring back regulations.

What we're watching: Discussion of baseload power when President Trump and top lieutenants appear today at a big AI and energy summit in Pittsburgh. Full EIA primer.