File under wonky-but-important: The International Energy Agency's next flagship, long-term outlook will include a more conservative model of the transition from fossil fuels.

Why it matters: IEA's studies inform policymakers, energy company boardrooms, investors and researchers worldwide.

• But GOP critics and some analysts say IEA has adopted an overly rosy, advocacy-tinted view of the energy transition.

What we're watching: Whether the report this fall, and reaction to it, helps ease growing U.S. pressure on the multinational body.

• Energy Secretary Chris Wright has threatened a U.S. withdrawal from IEA, and some Capitol Republicans are seeking to end U.S. funding.

Driving the news: The agency's World Energy Outlook — the annual look-ahead to mid-century — will have a "current policies scenario" for the first time since 2019, IEA quietly announced in a wider March calendar notice about it.

• WEOs always have several scenarios, but in recent years the most cautious has rested on "stated policies" — including those "under development" — rather than just present ones.

What's next: The 2025 edition will have a "wide spectrum of possible outcomes that today's markets and policies imply," IEA said.

• "These will include exploratory scenarios that flow from different assumptions about existing policies, including the Current Policies Scenario, as well as normative pathways that achieve energy and emissions goals in full."

Between the lines: One friction point is IEA's view that oil demand will stop growing this decade, which Wright in June called "nonsensical."

Yes, but: While IEA's take on oil consumption collides with some look-aheads, executive director Fatih Birol points out that its view is well within the analytical mainstream.

Our thought bubble: Some of the drama is about vibes.

• IEA's widely-circulated "net-zero" case shows aggressive moves from fossil fuels and much lower oil and gas investment needs.
• Yet it's a theoretical roadmap to achieve an outcome — not a prediction of where the world is heading.
• But IEA critics accuse the agency of adopting the posture of a climate NGO and straying from its core security mission.

The bottom line: The WEO is always a must-read in energy circles, and this year's edition is under an especially bright light.

Exclusive: The League of Conservation Voters is launching a $4 million campaign across swing states and districts to sour voters on the GOP budget law.

Why it matters: It will help determine whether green groups can politically tether rising power prices to the law in the 2026 midterms, where control of both chambers of Congress is in play.

• The new campaign is the largest expenditure from LCV, a major node of environmental movement political work, since the law's passage.

Driving the news: The work in over 30 states will include "rallies, town halls, phone banks, digital ads, partnering with local officials and content creators, canvassing and tabling, and on the ground field operations," a summary states.

• States include Pennsylvania, California, Ohio, Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin and many more.
• It's the latest step in an effort that already includes ads from LCV and other environmental groups, including LCV's $1.3 million buy with House Majority Forward and Climate Power.
• LCV is targeting House districts expected to have highly competitive races, including GOP-held seats like Arizona's 1st and 6th; Colorado's 8th, Iowa's 1st, and Michigan's 7th, to name a few.

My thought bubble: Democratically aligned environmental groups see costs and jobs — not climate change — as the central message.

• "People deserve to know why their energy bills and groceries are going up," Sara Schreiber, LCV's senior VP of campaigns, said in a statement.
• "Congressional Republicans who voted for the Big Ugly Bill have broken their promise to lower costs and have instead given tax breaks to the ultra wealthy and sided with Big Oil, polluters and other special interests," she said.

What we're watching: How Republicans navigate power price politics. Trump officials say Democratic policies have put too many constraints on fossil fuels.

• Wright told Politico that he knows Republicans are vulnerable over power prices but hopes voters will blame Dems.
• "The momentum of the Obama-Biden policies, for sure that destruction is going to continue in the coming years," he said.

The U.S. could impose new financial penalties and travel limits in response to the UN shipping agency's net-zero plan slated for adoption in October, a State Department spokesperson tells Axios.

Why it matters: The comments are the first indication of what State and other agencies meant last week when they threatened to retaliate against countries that support the plan.

State of play: "We are actively exploring and preparing to act on remedies including tariffs, visa restrictions, or port levies should this effort succeed in the October IMO extraordinary session vote," State said in comments first reported by E&E News.

• Trump officials call the plan, which includes fees on ships that do not meet emissions standards in years ahead, "effectively a global carbon tax on Americans."

⚡️ Black Hills Corp. and NorthWestern Energy Group this morning announced an all-stock merger they said would create a "premier regional regulated electric and natural gas utility."

• Why it matters: The deal comes amid rising demand and the need for companies to invest more in generating and moving energy. Their combined investment plans from 2025 to 2029 "exceed $7 billion and will be focused on building new electric and natural gas critical infrastructure," they said.
• State of play: The merged company would have 2.1 million customers across Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming. It would have a pro forma market cap of roughly $7.8 billion, they said.

🛢️ BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners is buying a 49.99% stake in Italy-based oil and gas giant Eni's carbon capture, utilization and storage business.

• Why it matters: The deal "will further enhance our ability to deliver large-scale, technically advanced decarbonization solutions," Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi said in a statement.

💵 Via Bloomberg, "The Japanese government plans to raise $1.5 billion over the next three years for impact investing in Africa aimed at curbing the continent's greenhouse gas emissions and supporting sustainable growth."

Google and advanced nuclear startup Kairos Power plan to deploy a nuclear reactor for the Tennessee Valley Authority's grid to power Google's data centers in Tennessee and Alabama.

Why it matters: Tech giants are increasingly turning to advanced nuclear as an option for powering growing AI data center footprints.

Zoom in: TVA plans to buy 50 MW of electricity from Kairos Power's reactor, called the Hermes 2 Plant, that is planned for Oak Ridge, Tennessee, with a goal to start operations by 2030.

• TVA is the first utility customer from Kairos and Google's 500 MW partnership, announced last year.

Catch up quick: TVA's grid is also planned to be the site of a small modular reactor (SMR) designed by GE Hitachi.

• In addition, TVA is working with fusion startup Type One Energy on deploying a fusion reactor.

How it works: Kairos has developed a reactor that uses a "pebble" fuel system combined with molten salt coolant. This design is meant to be safer, simpler, and lower cost compared to traditional reactors.

• Kairos has a commitment of $303 million from the Department of Energy, but hasn't disclosed other backers.

Reality check: Kairos' nuclear tech is not yet commercial, and there is a lot unknown about the TVA deal, like how the first-of-a-kind project will be financed.

Read the whole story, and unlock a steady stream of scoops and smart analysis, by talking to our sales team about Axios Pro Deals.

"I always hate to say 'it's unprecedented' with the auto industry, but we've never really seen anything like this."

He's quoted in this Bloomberg feature on deeply discounted EV lease deals out there as the phaseout of federal tax credits looms.