Iran decision looms: One big thing to watch is President Trump's expected announcement by the Oct. 15 deadline that he's decertifying the Iran nuclear deal.
Yes, but: That does not mean reimposition of sanctions on its own, but rather sends the question back to Capitol Hill. Congress probably won't move to re-impose U.S. sanctions against Iran, though the White House could act on its own in several months.
Market impact: Hard to gauge but could be muted initially, because it doesn't mean re-imposition of sanctions, and even if those sanctions eventually do return, Iranian crude exports will still flow absent a wider global move against Iran. A Goldman Sachs note this morning puts it like this:
"European buyers, which account for 25% of Iran's 2.2 [million barrels per day of] crude exports, could potentially stop their purchases to avoid falling foul of US secondary sanctions if those sanctions are unilaterally reimposed.""We believe the key to the global oil market is whether these flows will be curtailed rather than simply redirected to Asia with the potential impact of eventual US sanctions on international insurance and shipping key to this outcome."***A few other oil-related items catching our eye...Extraordinary: Via Reuters and elsewhere, OPEC secretary general Mohammed Barkindo told reporters in India Sunday that "some extraordinary measures" may be needed next year to rebalance markets, even though the current output-limiting agreement with OPEC and some non-OPEC producers — notably Russia — is making progress.The comments will reinforce the expectation that the production deal will be extended, perhaps with some changes, beyond the first quarter of 2018.Something to watch this week: The International Energy Agency will release the next edition of its closely watched monthly oil market reports on Thursday, which will take stock of the OPEC efforts.Shelter from the storm: Tropical Storm Nate forced evacuation of many Gulf of Mexico offshore oil-and-gas platforms (check out the Interior Department's Sunday summary here), but look for a quick return. Via Bloomberg's Sunday report:"While an estimated 93 percent of U.S. oil production in the Gulf was still shut, no damage had been reported, suggesting crude and natural gas supplies may quickly rebound this week."