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Onto music. 50 years ago today, Cream released "Goodbye," their final album, so one of those cuts is today's intro tune...
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
The U.S. oil-and-gas production surge could boost domestic and global greenhouse gas emissions in the future, a new study released via the nonpartisan think tank Resources for the Future shows.
Why it matters: Daniel Raimi's analysis takes a broad, global look at the shale boom's climate effects in the years ahead and focuses in-depth on the role of higher oil production.
What they did: Raimi explores a range of oil-and-gas production levels over the next dozen years based on last year's version of the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook.
What they found: There are several reasons to think that what's been the climate benefit of gas replacing coal could become a different story going forward, including these possibilities...
The big picture: There could be a substantial increase in emissions if production rises substantially, climbing on the oil side to 15 million barrels per day by 2030, the study concludes.
Here are some topline conclusions:
Yes, but: The study also openly acknowledges that it rests on a range of limitations and unknowns. It's about the future! For instance, one thing that's not modeled is how OPEC and other producers could engage in more strategic market interventions to prop up prices.
The bottom line: “Because of the global nature of oil markets and the scale of U.S. oil production, the oil effects of the shale revolution [on the climate] are likely to be substantially larger than the natural gas effects moving forward, and not in a good way,” Raimi tells Axios.
BP is the latest oil-and-gas giant to beat expectations.
By the numbers: This morning the company announced a $3.48 billion Q4 profit and a full year haul of $12.7 billion, more than double the 2017 tally, the fruit of higher prices and higher output.
The big picture: The multinational company's report follows earnings announcements from ExxonMobil, Chevron and Shell last week that also beat Wall Street forecasts.
The bottom line: Via Bloomberg, "The better-than-expected earnings should give shareholders some comfort after BP took on more debt to pay for a swath of U.S. shale assets, its biggest deal in 20 years. The company’s facilities were still able to churn out cash even as the oil market turned south late last year."
Go deeper: BP's 2018 profit doubles to 5-year high as output soars (Reuters)
The Sierra Club and Tom Steyer's NextGen America, as well as veteran Democrat Rep. Earl Blumenauer, were among the first backers yesterday of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's upcoming resolution calling for a Green New Deal.
Where it stands: Ocasio-Cortez's office is circulating a "dear colleague" memo seeking more initial co-sponsors for the resolution that will call for a "national, social, industrial and economic mobilization at a scale not seen since World War II."
Why it matters: The short memo her office is circulating seeking backers, obtained by Axios, provides an early look at support for the first formal — if non-binding — GND effort on Capitol Hill.
Who they are: Other lawmakers listed as initial co-sponsors are Democratic Reps. Brendan Boyle, Joaquin Castro, Yvette Clarke, Pramila Jayapal, Ro Khanna, Ted Lieu, Joe Neguse, and Ayanna Pressley.
The big picture: The memo lays out the broad framing of what the resolution will call for, including:
Achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions through a fair and just transition for all communities and workers.
Create millions of good, high-wage jobs and ensure prosperity and economic security for all.
Promote justice and equity by preventing current and repairing historic oppression to frontline and vulnerable communities.
Interior: President Trump on Monday announced he will nominate David Bernhardt, a former longtime energy lobbyist, to lead the Interior Department, ending the search for a permanent replacement for embattled and scandal-ridden Ryan Zinke, Axios' Khorri Atkinson reports.
EPA and cars: Bloomberg has some good reporting that shows EPA and California are far apart when it comes to auto emissions rules.
Venezuela: The Wall Street Journal reports that the turmoil and sanctions could jolt the market soon.
LNG: "British energy supplier Centrica and Tokyo Gas Co. have agreed to jointly purchase 2.6 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) a year from Mozambique LNG Company Pte Ltd, the firms said on Tuesday," Reuters reports.
Trend-spotting: Over at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Nikos Tsafos noticed something interesting about U.S. oil demand data.
"This reversal partly reflects the strong fundamentals in the U.S. economy: growth in petrochemicals, a rebound in freight movements, and more travel by car and plane."
"But it also signals a failure to implement strict efficiency policies—a failure made more acute by the complacency of the current administration, which has touted the lowering of carbon emissions as one reason to be less stringent about regulation."
Buying: Via TechCrunch, "Tesla has acquired energy storage company Maxwell Technologies in an all-stock deal valued at $218 million, a deal aimed at helping the electric automaker improve its batteries and lower costs as more competitors enter the market."
Charging: Electrify America, VW's U.S. charging subsidiary, said Monday that it's installing Tesla Powerpack battery systems at more than 100 charging stations across the country this year.