Happy Friday! Today's Smart Brevity count: 1,121 words, ~ 4 minute read.
Tomorrow marks 40 years since Dire Straits released "Communiqué," so let's head into the weekend with some amazing guitar work...
Iranian navy boat tries to control the fire on Norwegian-owned Front Altair tanker on June 13. Photo: Tasmin News/AFP/Getty Images
Two big forces are tugging on the global oil market: the weakening global economy and rising geopolitical tensions over tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman.
Where it stands: The weakening economy is carrying a lot of weight despite the spike in tensions from the U.S. blaming Iran for yesterday's violence near the Strait of Hormuz, which is the world's biggest oil choke point.
Why it matters: The muted price response despite the tanker attacks is likely a sign of the faltering global economy.
What to watch: Whether the economic headwinds or the threat of more and wider conflict will hold more sway. RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft summed up the competing forces in a CNBC interview yesterday.
What's next: Looking at 2020 for the first time, IEA sees demand growth recovering to 1.4 million barrels per day, "supported by solid non-OECD demand and petrochemicals expansion."
What they're saying: "A clear message from our first look at 2020 is that there is plenty of non-OPEC supply growth available to meet any likely level of demand, assuming no major geopolitical shock," IEA said.
Winners and losers: As Bloomberg notes, the report underscores OPEC's struggles. IEA sees demand for OPEC's crude falling to 29.3 million barrels daily next year, which is 650,000 barrels below May's output.
Axios' Amy Harder reports ... Top executives of Big Oil and investment companies ended a meeting Friday with Pope Francis at the Vatican by signing a joint statement on carbon pricing and transparent investments, according to BP, which attended the meeting.
Where it stands: The joint statement supports carbon pricing and investment risk disclosure as it pertains to climate change, but additional details, including all the signatories, weren’t immediately available.
Driving the news: Earlier Friday, the Pope “warned executives that a ‘radical energy transition’ to clean, low-carbon power sources is needed to stave off the effects of a rapidly warming planet,” per AP.
Axios' Andrew Freedman reports ... Earlier this year, we saw the unprecedented disappearance of sea ice from the Bering Sea during a time of year when it should be gaining ice.
What's new: This trend toward plummeting sea ice in the Alaskan and Canadian Arctic continues, this time centered in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas.
Why it matters: Sea ice loss is disrupting the balance of heat in the Northern Hemisphere, and that's reverberating throughout ecosystems.
The big picture: Across the entire Arctic, sea ice extent is at a record low for this point in the year, and depending on weather conditions during the summer, it's possible that 2019 could set a new record low ice extent.
Threat level: "The Arctic is a regulator of Northern Hemisphere climate, and while the ice that is melting now isn't going to affect whether you get a thunderstorm tomorrow, in the long term, these are going to have profound effects on your weather and climate down the road that you will have to take action on, like it or not," says Rick Thoman of the University of Alaska at Fairbanks.
Axios Expert Voices contributor Paul Sullivan writes ... A recent delivery of 200 electric buses from Chinese manufacturers BYD and Yutong, with more orders to come, is advancing Chile's goals for electric-powered public transit — 80% by 2022 and 100% by 2040.
Why it matters: Chile is electrifying transportation to help clean its air, reduce urban noise pollution, cut oil imports and add more renewables to its energy mix.
Context: Transportation has contributed to significant pollution in Chile’s cities, with serious public health consequences. Adopting an all-electric taxi and bus fleet in Santiago could prevent 1,379 premature deaths, according to a UN study.
What to watch: China is already Chile's largest trading partner, and electric buses are just one area where it's working to extend that relationship.
Sullivan is a professor of economics at National Defense University and an adjunct professor of security studies at Georgetown.
Electric cars: "Carmaker Fiat Chrysler (FCA) has signed an agreement with European utilities Enel and Engie to help offer its customers charging points for electric vehicles (EV) it is planning to roll out," Reuters reports.
Renewables: Via E&E News, "U.S. officials granted an exemption [Wednesday] from President Trump's solar tariffs to a type of two-sided panel — a move that could buffer much of the utility sector from trade barriers."
2020: "Democratic presidential candidate John Hickenlooper‘s [climate] plan calls for the U.S. to rejoin the Paris climate agreement, implement a carbon tax and work with the private sector to invest in green infrastructure programs," Politico reports.
Coal: Per NYT, "Plans for a fiercely contested coal mine in northeastern Australia received a long-awaited government green light on Thursday, less than a month after conservative politicians who champion coal triumphed in national elections."
That's the 2017 share of U.S. commutes made with cars, and it's almost identical to what the percentage was in 1980.
Why it matters: "For all the talk about a revolution in mobility, the data on commuting show that car is still king," writes Nikos Tsafos of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in this post on how Americans get to work.