Early signs are emerging that the energy shock could aid the global spread of renewable power, batteries, electric cars and other climate-friendly tech.

Why it matters: The throttling of oil and gas transit — together with higher prices — has short- and long-term consequences for use and economics of different fuels.

Driving the news: Very early data disputes the conventional wisdom that coal — the most carbon dioxide-emitting fuel — is a winner, per the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a research group.

• Instead, global power generation from fossil fuels was down in the first month of the war.
• Solar and wind power was up, as renewables offset more of the decline in gas-fired power than coal did, writes Lauri Myllyvirta, the group's lead analyst.
• Only Japan and South Korea saw "significant increases" in coal-fired generation.

What we're watching: The scope of efforts to swap out imported oil and gas with homegrown sources — some clean, some not — and cleantech imports that don't rely on risky trade routes.

• The outcome will depend on prices, but also on how much energy-importing nations remain spooked about the stability of the global oil and gas trade even after the war ends.
• "Any domestic energy will be prioritized," Patrick Pouyanné, CEO of multinational energy giant TotalEnergies, told Axios' Amy Harder in an interview. He includes renewables on the list.

What they're saying: "This thing is like a giant energy security Rorschach test," said Ethan Zindler of the clean energy research firm BloombergNEF.

• Some coal-rich nations, like Indonesia, will look to their domestic supplies.
• But other countries "don't have a tremendous amount of stuff underground that they can just extract at a low cost," he said in an interview.
• "And so for them, energy security is going to ultimately [be] more about importing clean energy equipment."

Yes, but: The analysis notes an uptick in March coal-fired generation in China, by far the world's largest user of the fuel.

What's next: EU officials — stung by roughly $26 billion in higher fossil fuel import costs since the war began — will propose new clean electrification plans.

Reality check: Memories can be short, especially if the Strait of Hormuz reopens quickly. And reorienting energy economies carries its own costs.

• In the near term, the research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie says the disruption is indeed "triggering a rebound in global thermal coal demand" as countries scramble amid constrained natural gas shipments.
• "[T]ightening LNG supply and elevated prices are accelerating fuel switching back to coal" despite decarbonization commitments by Asian countries, analyst Sushmita Vazirani said in a statement.
• And President Trump, who uses U.S. oil and gas for trade leverage, is promoting even higher exports.

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⛽ Average U.S. gasoline prices dipped again to $4.09 per gallon, per AAA.

☎️ Via Politico, "Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum will urge the heads of top U.S. oil and gas companies in a call Thursday to increase drilling in a bid to lower oil prices."

🕵️ The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is probing a "series of suspiciously well-timed trades in the oil futures market ahead of recent policy pivots by President Donald Trump" on Iran, Bloomberg reports.

💵 The Energy Department has decided to maintain billions of dollars in funding for a large number of Biden-era grants, a decision that follows a lengthy review.

• The big picture: The agency will keep financing direct air capture (DAC) "hubs" in Texas and Louisiana, and some large-scale hydrogen projects.
• State of play: It's a sign of relief for the carbon removal sector, which is facing a challenging private funding environment.
• What they're saying: "We have an opportunity to develop a new industry right here in the United States and keep the innovation, jobs, and economic activity that comes with it on American soil," Giana Amador, executive director of the Carbon Removal Alliance, said in a statement.
• Go deeper: Energy Secretary Chris Wright's description of the decision starts around 28 minutes into this House hearing replay, and here's DOE's full "retain/modify" list.

✏️ The Energy Information Administration — DOE's stats and analysis arm — will eventually implement mandatory surveys of data center energy use, building on a recent voluntary pilot program.

• Why it matters: There's no shortage of estimates flying around, but policymakers and the public need firmer info on what's emerging as a major source of power demand in the AI boom.
• Catch up quick: EIA head Tristan Abbey described the plan in a letter to Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D), who along with Sen. Josh Hawley (R) has urged detailed surveys.
• State of play: "EIA has determined that use of these voluntary pilots is the most cost effective and efficient means to understand the types of questions that would yield high-quality data on a mandatory survey," he writes.
• What's next: The agency plans to complete the voluntary data collection by Sept. 30, Abbey writes.

🤝 A bipartisan group of House members — including Reps. Scott Peters (D) and Gabe Evans (R) — unveiled new legislation to overhaul federal energy permitting by providing more certainty for projects.

• Why it matters: Permitting changes are a major priority for many industries and advocates, though the odds of a major Capitol Hill deal remain long.

As the race toward electric autonomy unfolds, a new U.S. "Big Three" in mobility is emerging: Instead of GM, Ford and Chrysler, it's Waymo, Tesla and Uber.

Why it matters: Automotive and tech giants, along with many well-funded startups, are vying for a slice of the self-driving future.

The big picture: Autonomous driving technology is no longer science fiction. It's here.

• Robotaxis are operating in about a dozen cities — with tests underway in many more — and driverless semi trucks are hauling loads across Arizona and Texas.
• But safely deploying AV technology is only the start — the next phase of the AV race is about who can operate networks at scale.
• This will require building the infrastructure and large-scale operations needed to support a viable robotaxi service.

Between the lines: Waymo, Tesla and Uber already have distinct advantages in these areas that will make it hard for others to catch up.

• Each has bet their stakes on an autonomous future, although with different paths to get there.
• And while none of them possess all the pieces needed for a successful AV business, each has a solid foundation and the resources to do so better and faster than others.

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💵 Advanced nuclear company X-energy wants up to a $7.5 billion valuation in its planned IPO, the company revealed yesterday.

• What's next: It's seeking to raise over $800 million in the offering. Go deeper via Axios Pro Deals.

🚗 Via the WSJ, "Doug Field, lured by Ford Motor from Apple five years ago to bring the 120-year-old automaker into the digital and electric age, is leaving the company amid a wider reorganization."

🛢️ Repsol, the Spanish oil and gas heavyweight, has an agreement to resume control of its assets in Venezuela and plans to boost production, per the FT and others.

Large tech companies are slated to boost capital investment in data centers by 75% in 2026 from last year's $400 billion-plus figure, per a new International Energy Agency report.

😮 "Capital expenditure of just five technology companies is now larger than global investment in oil and natural gas production," it finds.