Global efforts to address climate change are — still — going far better today than they were a decade ago, even with recent politics pushing the problem to the back burner.

Why it matters: We humans usually operate on daily, monthly and yearly time frames. So it can be easy to miss the energy transition unfolding over decades and centuries.

Driving the news: The chart above compares two International Energy Agency projections to one from more than a decade ago.

• The larger gap between the top line compared to the lower two shows the progress made on clean energy over the last decade.

What they're saying: "This progress is not part of the prevailing view of climate change, but it should be," philanthropist Bill Gates said in his recent controversial memo while featuring a similar chart.

State of play: Clean energy, largely wind and solar, has grown significantly over the last decade, due largely to policies by a range of countries, including China, Germany and the U.S.

• Now they're more affordable than ever, which is pushing the energy transition forward even as policy stalls in key regions like the U.S.
• Natural gas, which emits far less carbon dioxide than coal, is also helping reduce emissions in the short term (though longer term its role is more complicated).

How it works: The chart above shows three different greenhouse gas emission scenarios from the IEA.

• The top blue line shows what the IEA was predicting would happen with policies in place and under consideration back in 2014.
• The middle pink line shows what IEA is predicting today based upon policies currently in place.
• The lower purple line shows where emissions from the energy sector could go if policies under consideration are put in place.

Reality check: Even so, past performance doesn't dictate future results.

"There is no guarantee that we will take stronger action on climate change in the future. I hope we will. I think we will because that's been the trend over the last few decades," said Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather in an interview.

• "If the 21st century is led by leaders who share ideology closer to the Trump administration, we won't."

The bottom line: The possible trajectories are better than a decade ago, but they still indicate significant global warming.

• When it comes to the impact of more extreme weather, the difference we're talking about is bad compared to worse. It's already going to be bad, but we've made it less bad in the last decade.

Disclosure: Amy Harder is the former founding executive editor of Cipher News, an independent news outlet supported by Bill Gates' climate and energy initiative Breakthrough Energy.

Energy-related CO2 emissions are rising an estimated 1.9% in the U.S. this year, new data shows.

Why it matters: U.S. emissions, the distant second-largest behind China, have generally been falling for about 15 years. But the path is bumpy.

State of play: A colder U.S. start to 2025 after a mild 2024 boosted heating needs, while higher natural gas prices lifted coal use, the Global Carbon Budget report finds.

• Higher electricity demand overall was also a factor, the research collaborative said.

Zoom out: Global emissions from fossil energy are climbing 1.1% this year (it also offers a range of 0.2% to 2.2%).

• The report is consistent with Amy's piece above — a world making strides on cleaner tech deployment but still facing very harmful warming.

Threat level: "The remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C is virtually exhausted," it states, citing the most ambitious Paris Agreement target.

• IEA's new World Energy Outlook sees nations' existing and planned policies bringing 2.5°C of warming above preindustrial levels by 2100.

What we're watching: It will take time to see how White House policies affect U.S. emissions.

Let's size up Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro's (D) latest energy move through 2028-tinted glasses.

Catch up quick: He just agreed to a state budget that includes pulling Pennsylvania out of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative.

• That's the power plant cap-and-trade system among Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, and yesterday's move angered environmentalists.
• Pennsylvania's participation has long been tied up in court.

🏈 State of play: Shapiro blamed state Republicans for using RGGI as an "excuse to stall substantive conversations about energy."

• He's pushing his own state energy plan that supports renewables, nuclear and fossil fuels. It includes a state-based cap-and-trade program.

🔍Between the lines: Muhlenberg College political scientist Christopher Borick called RGGI membership an "uncomfortable political fit for Shapiro," whose state is a huge gas producer.

• Shapiro's been seeking alternatives that defuse claims he's hurting the state's economy, but don't alienate him from Democrats and progressives, he said.
• "I think the budget crisis may have given Shapiro an out on RGGI that makes both his reelection in 2026 and a possible presidential run less encumbered by this particular matter," Borick, who heads the school's Institute of Public Opinion, said via email.

The intrigue: The decision was about solving a budget impasse, not 2028 politics, Penn State Harrisburg political scientist Daniel Mallinson said.

• It made sense for Shapiro, who was never a fan anyway.
• "There is also good political cover at the moment due to consumers [who are] already feeling the effects of inflation across the economy," he said in an email.

The bottom line: "The political trick down the road, however, will be how to explain this to the progressive wing of the party in a presidential primary," he said, "but I would expect Shapiro to run more in the moderate lane so it won't hurt him there."

Fewer solar projects are being delayed now compared to this time last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported this week.

Why it matters: Conventional wisdom pointing to politics, permitting and local battles suggests solar is facing increasing opposition, but short-term trends suggest that may be changing.

Driving the news: In the third quarter of this year, solar projects representing about 20% of planned capacity reported a delay, down from 25% in the same period in 2024, the EIA reported.

Reality check: Far more projects today are being delayed compared to just a few years ago, though.

• That 20% still represents a sizable increase compared to 2020, when about 10% of such projects were delayed.

The big picture: Despite a spike in delayed projects, 2024 still saw a record year for U.S. solar capacity additions, EIA reports.

The bottom line: Less than 1% of planned solar capacity is entirely canceled in a typical month, EIA says.

💬 Bloomberg explores a "nascent movement" to win COP30 language that offers "outlines of a path away from fossil fuels."

💵 Via the WSJ, electric truck maker Harbinger Motors raised a $160 million Series C round led by FedEx, which also placed an order.

⛏️ Reuters unpacks a bipartisan House report alleging Chinese manipulation of critical minerals prices.

That's projected U.S. crude oil production in 2025 and 2026, per the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates.

Why it matters: Their latest monthly snapshot has again slightly raised estimates.

What we're watching: Different oilfields. EIA sees 2026 output rising in Alaska and the Gulf of America (renamed by President Trump from the Gulf of Mexico).

• Lower 48 output declines next year, and Permian Basin output is basically flat year-over-year in 2026 after rising this year.
• Check out page 39 for a detailed regional look if that's your jam.