China's long-awaited emissions target is either a nod to realism (and the benefit of under-promising) or a dangerous failure of ambition, depending on who you ask.

Why it matters: It's the world's largest carbon emitter by a mile.

• China's future energy mix will help sway how much Earth warms.
• Its evolution ripples through markets as the top oil importer and a huge gas buyer.

👟Catch up quick: China yesterday vowed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 7%-10% and hopefully more by 2035 from peak levels — a peak that may be here already.

• It pledged to increase non-fossil sources' share of energy consumption to over 30%, and expand wind and solar capacity 6x over 2020 levels.
• Chinese President Xi Jinping offered the non-binding Paris Agreement targets in video remarks to the UN yesterday.

The big picture: It's an early — and somewhat ambiguous — sign of climate diplomacy's new landscape.

• China's target arrives amid President Trump's latest pullback and divides within the EU, which has tough climate policies but is grappling with internal divisions.

💬 What they're saying: "China's underwhelming show of ambition reflects leaders' preference for caution amidst economic and geopolitical volatility," Kate Logan, who directs the Asia Society's China Climate Hub, said in a statement.

• She noted that China didn't specify a peak year (it has previously targeted a peak by 2030 and ideally sooner), which risks allowing emissions to tick back up again.
• "[I]f Beijing is 'striving to do better' — as Xi said — then they could start by acknowledging an early peak and sticking to it," she said.

John Podesta, who negotiated a 2014 Obama-era deal with China that helped enable the Paris Agreement, said its new pledge is "taking their strategy of under-promising to a new art form."

• He cited China's "astonishingly" fast deployment of zero-carbon power, and EV growth.
• It could cut emissions by 30% by 2035 instead of their new 7%-10% goal, he said.
• "They blew an opportunity to demonstrate leadership, at a time when the world is trying to come to grips with the Trump Administration's radical climate denying ideology," he told Axios via email.

🔍 What we're watching: Facts on the ground in China, by far the world leader in renewables and EVs, but also by far the largest coal-fired power source.

• "If China's pace of deployment of renewables and EVs, and rate of emissions decrease (which was 1% in the first half of 2025, year over year) continues, China would overdeliver on its 2035 target," said Melanie Robinson of the World Resources Institute, via email.
• She's the group's global director for climate, finance and economics.

The bottom line: "With little pressure from the international community, Chinese leaders see lots of risk and little reward for pushing the envelope on ambition," the Asia Society's Logan said.

We listened to many, many people over these last few days. Here are a few quotes that stood out to us since our last edition...

🥃 "I'm not saying we had a good year. I'm saying we're going to have some bad years on the way to solving this problem ... We're still on a trajectory that's a hell of a lot better than had we not passed the original [IRA] bill." — Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii)

💵 "When we talk about climate finance, we're not talking about charity — we're talking about compensation for what is due." — Hilda Heine, president of the Marshall Islands

😮 "I'm going to suggest you might, five years from now, give President Trump the 'hero of the climate' award, because in the Trump administration, you will see more downward movement in greenhouse gas emissions globally and in the United States than any other leader in history." — Energy Secretary Chris Wright

🤬 "Tariffs — I'm not the best speller in the world, but it has become a four-letter word ... In April, our supply chain team did a fantastic job, and then a month later there's a change and then a month later, another change, and then there's a tweet. It causes chaos in the supply chain." — Jeff Tolnar, president of Shoals Technologies Group

🖥️ "As we grow our (data center) footprint, we're very focused on energy efficiency. I worked in energy efficiency for 10 years before coming to Amazon, so I have a chip on my shoulder about it." — Jake Oster, Amazon director of sustainability policy

The Dallas Fed keeps publishing new data points that underscore why Trump's "drill, baby, drill" push faces headwinds.

Why it matters: The market isn't cooperating amid modest prices, ample supply (though there's uncertainty around inventories), and tepid demand growth.

Driving the news: The Dallas Fed's latest survey of oil and gas execs in its region — which includes the Permian Basin — finds that Trump's regulatory changes aren't yet fundamentally reshaping shale economics.

• Over 80% see regulatory changes lowering new well breakeven costs less than $2 per barrel, and well over half see less than a dollar of impact.

Yes, but: Trump officials' energy agenda goes beyond just regulatory changes, such as seeking expanded export markets in trade agreements.

• And beyond near-term output changes, Trump's policies also look to open up more long-term opportunities for offshore and Alaskan drilling.

The bottom line: Overall, the latest survey showed rather sour sentiment among onshore producers, with complaints about macro-conditions but also Trump tariffs and more.

Power giant Constellation Energy sees consolidation coming in the renewables space — and it could be a buyer, CEO Joseph Dominguez said.

Why it matters: His comments signal new opportunities from the mix of declining federal wind and solar support but rising power demand.

The big picture: "There are a number of companies that have created these big investment books that they're not going to be able to fund, and I think that's going to be a good marriage for Constellation, because we will have the dollars to be able to fund some of this development," he said in an interview at Climate Week NYC.

• "Customers continue to want clean energy, and they want renewables," he said.
• It's part of Constellation's wider strategy to grow a mix of sources including renewables, he said.

Catch up quick: The electricity heavyweight already has an expansive basket of nuclear — its biggest power source — but also gas, wind, solar, and hydro.

What's next: While federal tax credits are phasing out in coming years, Dominguez said wind and solar have policy support elsewhere.

• "We have over 30 state jurisdictions where they have very supportive programs for wind and solar in particular. That's going to be part of the growth," he said.

🛑 Via Bloomberg, "The Trump administration plans to continue using emergency authority to stop coal-fired power plants from retiring."

💵 House Democrats are pitching new proposals aimed at rising electricity prices, Heatmap reports.

• Why it matters: They signal "how the party plans to talk about climate change in the Trump 2.0 era."

🖥️ Via Inside Climate News, New Jersey lawmakers sent a bill to the governor's desk that would force data center operators to publicly disclose power and water use.

"These are not data centers. Data centers is where your Instagram pictures are stored. It's the storage of data. These are real industrial load. They are producing tokens. Tokens of knowledge. Input is electricity, output is tokens. These are knowledge factories."

Why it matters: His comments get to how massive AI infrastructure is a whole new animal in the electricity world, for better or worse (probably both).