Axios Future of Energy

October 27, 2026
🚵 The road to a permitting deal is rough and steep. We're opening with the latest twist and then moving on to...
- The energy stakes of Anthropic's IPO, policy and politics news, and what's next after Brazil's election, all in 1,269 words, 5 minutes.
🙏 Thanks to Mackenzie Weinger and Chris Speckhard for editing, and to our brilliant Axios visuals team.
🎹 This week in 1973, genre-bending legend Herbie Hancock released the album "Head Hunters," which provides today's intro tune...
1 big thing: Key Senate Dems set high bar for permitting bill support
Four Senate Democrats are pressing Trump officials to begin restoring billions of dollars in clean energy grants before a key vote on the permitting deal.
Why it matters: The path for the bipartisan bill in the lame duck session just got steeper.
The big picture: Before the first vote, the senators — Tammy Duckworth (Ill.), Ron Wyden (Ore.), Ed Markey (Mass.), and Jeff Merkley (Ore.) — want Trump aides to tell the Energy Department to:
- Begin reinstating grants terminated in October 2025 that have not already been restored with a clear timeline for completion, and allow recipients to draw on the funds under the original terms.
- Pledge in writing not to cancel grants based on the political hue of a state or its officials.
📻 Driving the news: Their new letter to the bill's authors stops shy of an ultimatum, but says it would be "compelling" if these steps occurred.
- It shows deep misgivings about the bill, arguing it could provide new tools for Trump to favor fossil fuels.
"[T]he promise of BAAJA will only succeed if President Trump takes care that it is faithfully executed. The Trump administration's record gives us no basis to assume that he will," the letter states, calling the bill by its acronym.
🏃 Catch up quick: The letter recounts the scuttling of Biden-era grants, and White House budget chief Russ Vought listing states that did not vote for President Trump in 2024.
- The Energy Department has acknowledged, in a court filing, that selections of grants for termination in October 2025 were based on politics.
- Restoring "unlawfully terminated DOE clean energy awards would be a small but important first step" toward fairness in permitting, it states.
🤼 Friction point: Co-authors Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) want to see more federal approvals of stalled renewables projects.
- They've called some recent administration moves a step in the right direction. But the new letter shows that other lawmakers have separate asks of the administration.
- Already, some House Democrats have criticized other portions of the bill and called for changes, such as its effects on tribal input into energy projects.
🏀 State of play: The status of billions of dollars in scuttled or frozen grants — under the 2021 infrastructure and 2022 Inflation Reduction Act — is a moving legal and administrative target.
- Many are in "limbo," per a report this month from the DOE Alumni Network and Lawyers for Good Government.
- It also found that most projects DOE retained have received "negligible" funding.
- The October 2025 cancellations largely targeted blue states, but wider delays and uncertainty have affected places of varying political stripes.
Flashback: DOE has said it reviewed grants for financial soundness, economic viability, consistency with administration goals, and other criteria.
2. 🪟 Anthropic's IPO opens new window into AI's energy challenge
Anthropic's IPO registration details a company that is transitioning into developing its own data centers and diving deeper into the energy supply chain, particularly natural gas.
Why it matters: The move positions Anthropic to better compete with the Big Tech companies but also introduces greater supply chain risk and stricter capital needs.
State of play: Anthropic reveals that some of its planned data centers — called Anthropic Direct in the S-1 — will rely on dedicated on-site gas generation.
- The company cites clean energy including "solar, wind, battery storage, nuclear, and geothermal" as risks that "may not be available in the quantities or on the timelines we require, or may be available only at higher cost."
Yes, but: The transition exposes Anthropic to more volatility around energy supply chains, including gas price fluctuations and disruptions.
- Anthropic says it expects increased competition for gas supplies and pipeline capacity, potentially rising gas prices and in some cases uncapped fuel cost pass-throughs that apply regardless of actual utilization.
Unlock the whole story, and for a steady diet of scoops and smart analysis, talk to our sales team about Axios Pro Deals.
3. 🧁 Bonus: Anthropic's risk matrix
Those gas risks are part of much broader disclosures about threats to Anthropic's data centers, AI compute and energy needs.
🌎 Threat level: "The physical effects of climate change may increase our operating costs over time, as higher average temperatures can increase the power consumption and water usage required to cool equipment at the facilities on which we depend," the filing states.
The intrigue: Another risk is a potential ESG squeeze.
- On one hand, it cites "significant time and resources" to meet ESG and climate disclosure regimes in California and Europe.
- But it also notes that "anti-ESG sentiment" has gained momentum federally and in some states, creating risks of litigation and investigations.
"Additionally, if our competitors' corporate social responsibility performance is perceived to be better than ours, potential or current investors may elect to invest with our competitors instead," it states.
Zoom out: In this case, way, way out.
- Anthropic's IPO filing includes an extensive list of extreme warnings — including the chance its own technology could put humanity at risk, Axios' Madison Mills writes.
The bottom line: Needless to say, there are billions and billions of reasons for Anthropic to IPO.
- The Claude maker didn't say how much it plans to raise in its IPO, but there is speculation that it could seek around $100 billion at a $2 trillion valuation, Axios' Dan Primack reports.
4. 🏃 Catch up quick on policy: Climate, states, diesel
🔍 Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) told industry groups that any involvement by their members in bringing Russian diesel into the U.S. would violate U.S. law.
- Why it matters: He's slated to lead the Judiciary Committee if, as expected, Democrats take control of the House. It's the latest sign that probing President Trump's diesel agreement with Moscow would be a Democratic priority of the party takes the House and/or Senate.
⚖️ Via the Albany Times Union, New York state's AG is appealing federal court rulings that struck down the state's "climate superfund" law, which would assess billions of dollars in damages against fossil fuel companies.
- What we're watching: The Supreme Court. It's weighing whether federal law preempts state-law climate cases against Big Oil, but the outcome could also affect these kinds of state statutes.
🛢️ President Trump will today announce proposed EPA rules to ease federal requirements designed to cut methane emissions from the oil and gas sector, Bloomberg reports.
- What's next: Trump has a pair of appearances in Texas today.
- Catch up quick: Easing rules on methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, is a lobbying priority for some oil and gas producers. The industry has pushed back against what it calls onerous rules.
5. 🗳️ Number of the day: 50%
That's the share of likely voters who predict gasoline prices will rise if Republicans keep control of Congress, per a new CBS News/YouGov poll.
Why it matters: It's well above the 30% who see pump prices rising if Democrats take control of Capitol Hill.
- It's another sign of high energy costs creating political drag on Republicans this election season.
6. 🌴 Quote du jour: Brazil's election stakes edition
"The reduction in deforestation over recent years has been crucial, but much more needs to be done. The next four years will be decisive for the future of the world's largest tropical rainforest and for climate stability in Brazil and around the world."— University of São Paulo climate professor Carlos Nobre, via Inside Climate News on the reelection of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
📫 Did a friend send you this newsletter? Welcome, please sign up.
Sign up for Axios Future of Energy







