Axios Future of Energy

December 10, 2025
πͺ Halfway! We're getting you over the hump with looks at...
- π’οΈ Exxon's future
- π Permitting overhaul talks
- β‘ Data center power trends
- π΅ Geothermal funding and more, all in just 1,321 words, 5 minutes
π Thanks to Chuck McCutcheon and Chris Speckhard for edits to today's newsletter, along with the brilliant Axios Visuals team.
πΈ This week marks 35 years since AC/DC dropped today's intro tune...
1 big thing: What's next for Exxon on AI and climate
Exxon offered a few peeks into its strategy beyond just the topline numbers in its latest five-year corporate outlook.
Why it matters: The multinational giant is one of the world's most powerful oil companies and influences other market players.
Catch up quick: Exxon now sees $25 billion in earnings growth through 2030, up $5B from the prior outlook, it said yesterday.
- It also boosted oil and gas production plans to 5.5 million barrels of oil-equivalent per day, citing Permian Basin efficiency and other factors.
The intrigue: A few takeaways from the new documents and execs' call with analysts...
πͺ Flexing on AI for oil recovery. Exxon said it's ahead of its competitors in using AI on well data "to improve how we develop the resource to maximize value and operate assets at the lowest cost," chief financial officer Kathy Mikells said in prepared remarks.
- "It's clearly a game-changer to increase resource recovery, reduce capital deployed, and maximize net present value," she said, touting proprietary methods developed in-house.
- Exxon is hardly alone. As Amy just wrote, AI could help wring a lot more barrels from existing discoveries β a prospect climate advocates find chilling.
π It cut planned spending on low-carbon initiatives to $20 billion, instead of up to $30 billion by 2030 under prior guidance.
- It comes after Exxon put plans for a big hydrogen project in Texas on hold. But execs are more bullish in other areas.
- "The hydrogen market ... is one area that has been more slowly developing than we originally expected. But on the reverse side of that, the CCS [carbon capture and storage] market seems to be accelerating," Mikells told analysts.
π New data center info. Exxon revealed it has ID'd sites in Louisiana and Mississippi for its first planned gas-fired power plants to directly supply data centers.
- The plan envisions plants that can capture CO2, taking advantage of Exxon's transport and storage infrastructure β and hyperscalers' interest in low-carbon power.
- CEO Darren Woods also said final investment decisions should come next year, and cited talks with tech giants and power companies. NextEra Energy revealed on Monday that it's one of Exxon's partners.
- It's not clear whether the planned gas-fired plants would immediately start trapping CO2.
What they're saying: Exxon's vision of growing in the Permian Basin well into next decade "contrasts with industry views of 'peak Permian' and a shift from some companies (e.g., Chevron) to 'harvest mode,'" HSBC analyst Kim Fustier said in a note.
The bottom line: The market seems moderately pleased with Exxon's outlook, with its share price rising 2% yesterday.
2. π§ Bonus: Exxon and its peers from COVID onward


Exxon's market performance has generally outpaced its rivals as oil majors emerged from the depths of the pandemic.
3. π οΈ Why a permitting overhaul has a (faint) pulse
Some key members of Congress are bullish about a permitting overhaul's chance of becoming law β though one Democrat said Trump administration reluctance to approve solar projects remains a sticking point.
Why it matters: Industry groups are exerting pressure on lawmakers to streamline federal agencies' processes for green-lighting projects, saying it's essential if the U.S. is to surpass China on AI.
Driving the news: At an Axios event on permitting yesterday, two Democratic senators and a House Republican said colleagues understand the urgency.
- "Even if we were to build as fast as we ever have in the past, [permitting] is far too slow for what we're facing," said Rep. Julie Fedorchak (R-N.D.).
- Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) said Republicans and Democrats "are not just talking to each other, but are making suggestions, listening to each other and responding."
Friction point: Hawaii's Brian Schatz, a member of the Senate Democratic leadership, said lawmakers must confront what he described as the administration's "national solar ban" before addressing the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA).
- Solar companies have complained of a "near complete moratorium" for projects on federal and private lands in which the Interior Department plays a role.
- "The administration has tons and tons of tools to not just revoke permits β which they've done β but also to sandbag permits to the point where ... a lot of projects are dying on the vine right now and creating an energy shortage," he said.
What's next: The House is expected to vote next week on a bill, the SPEED Act, aimed at overhauling reviews under NEPA.
- Schatz and two other leading Senate Democrats β Rhode Island's Sheldon Whitehouse and New Mexico's Martin Heinrich β issued a joint statement opposing the House bill, Heatmap reported.
4. π² Data center power crunch brings unlikely winners
The race to power AI data centers is offering an unprecedented opportunity for tech startups across sectors β even ones building supersonic airliners.
State of play: The queue for gas turbines is so long that it is actually threatening to slow the rollout of AI data centers, data shows.
Driving the news: Boom Supersonic has modified its jet engines into gas turbines for AI data centers, and the company has closed a $300 million round.
- Darsana Capital Partners led the financing with participation from Altimeter Capital, ARK Invest, Bessemer Venture Partners, Robinhood Ventures and Y Combinator.
State of play: Data center developer Crusoe has ordered 29 of Boom's 42 MW gas turbines, dubbed Superpower, and the company says it has a backlog of more than $1.25 billion in orders.
What we're watching: The revenue from the turbines will help finance the continued development of its jet engine and actually "accelerate" the delivery of its supersonic airliner Overture, Boom Supersonic CEO Blake Scholl tells Axios Pro.
Unlock the whole story, and talk to our sales team about Axios Pro Deals for a steady diet of exclusives and smart analysis.
5. π Catch up quick on policy: Wind, climate, models
βοΈ This week's federal judge's ruling that scuttled President Trump's January anti-wind order is important β but probably limited in its real-world fallout.
- What they're saying: "The Trump Administration may appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, and federal agencies could reject any project applications or slow-walk reviews without issuing a formal pause," CleanView Energy Partners said in a note.
π€ Two U.S.-relevant doings in Europe to watch: one is that officials reached agreement on the bloc's emissions-cutting target of 90% by 2040, with some use of offsets. A separate deal softens ESG laws that Trump officials and many businesses love to hate.
- Why it matters: Europe is an important market for low-carbon energy companies. Meanwhile, a sweeping ESG rule β the notorious Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive β will affect U.S. companies like Exxon operating in Europe and doing business with the bloc.
- Yes, but: The ESG changes are unlikely to end strong opposition from U.S. officials, and big companies dismayed by their reach. Go deeper.
π§½ Via E&E News, "EPA has scrubbed references to people's contribution to rising temperatures from some of its climate change webpages."
π€ Wonky but important: The U.S. Energy Information Administration said it's revamping the model underpinning its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- Why it matters: The reports on current-year and year-ahead conditions are closely watched by traders, analysts, and many others with an interest in supply, demand and prices.
6. β¨οΈ Number of the day: $462 million for geothermal player
That's how much geothermal startup Fervo Energy just closed in Series E funding, which will help Fervo develop its first commercial power plant in Utah and other projects.
The intrigue: New investors include Google, while B Capital led the round.
What's next: The clean-power producer is among the few climate tech companies heading toward an IPO in 2026. Go deeper via Axios Pro Deals.
7. π’οΈ Quote du jour: Poetic license edition
"Not everything in that speech is 100% accurate, but I'll just put it to you this way: Those windmills don't fly themselves over there."β Billy Bob Thornton to the WSJ on the viral (and questionable) anti-wind speech in "Landman"
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