The push to pass a sweeping permitting bill is gaining powerful allies and encountering fresh resistance as Congress prepares for a post-midterms showdown.

Why it matters: It's the most important energy bill in a long time.

• Cutting hurdles for projects is a top priority for fossil fuels and renewables sectors.
• But some environmentalists say it badly weakens crucial protections in the name of speeding reviews.

🗞️ Driving the news: A new, interactive analysis out today projects potentially huge time savings if the bill becomes law.

• Transmission projects could see the biggest acceleration, per Jack Andreasen Cavanaugh, a researcher with Columbia's energy think tank.
• He based it on historical data about a large number of specific projects, then estimated how much quicker they would have proceeded under the bill.
• Columbia's Center on Global Energy Policy doesn't have an institutional position on the bill. But founding director Jason Bordoff, a prominent voice in energy policy circles, is urging environmentalists not to oppose it.

🏀 State of play: A who's who of economic and national security officials spanning six presidents (including Trump) are linking arms behind the bill in a new letter to Capitol Hill leaders.

▶️ What's next: The effort goes beyond signatures for some of the former officials, according to letter organizer Arnab Datta of the Institute for Progress, a nonpartisan think tank.

• "Some folks are engaging beyond the letter itself with stakeholders across the board, and some have made themselves available for members briefings or conversations," he tells me via email.

🏃 Catch up quick: The letter from 19 officials includes Biden-era Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Trump 1.0 Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, among five people who held the job.

• The list also features Trump 1.0 Secretary of State and CIA boss Mike Pompeo, and Leon Panetta, who had top Obama-era defense and CIA gigs, to name just two others.
• And via Punchbowl News, a separate coalition of former top officials are on a new letter with business leaders urging support for the bill.

⚔️ Friction point: The last 24 hours has also brought new signs of simmering opposition to the bill, or at least parts of it, adding to existing concerns among tribal leaders and some green groups.

• Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) posted on X that it would be "tone deaf if Congress makes it easier to build data centers."
• That drew pushback from backers who emphasized provisions to ensure data center companies cover grid costs.

🔍 What we're watching: The Edison Electric Institute, a powerful group of for-profit utilities, still hasn't weighed in.

• But David Pomerantz, who's with the progressive Energy & Policy Institute obtained an Oklahoma Gas & Electric document criticizing the transmission provisions.

The bottom line: The Senate is expected to hold a procedural vote on the bipartisan permitting bill immediately after lawmakers return from recess.

The midterm elections have high stakes for tech companies' and developers' plans to build large, energy-thirsty data centers.

State of play: Calls for moratorium are more popular with Democratic governor's hopefuls, while support for new restrictions is more bipartisan, per the research firm BloombergNEF.

• Still, there's plenty of overlap, too — the data center backlash is bipartisan.
• The chart above is from their much wider clean energy market outlook.

What we're watching: Democrats could gain full control of legislatures and governors' mansions in states including Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

• This could provide a boost to renewables in those states. But "a growing focus on dispatchable power to meet data center demand could push policy marginally toward gas at renewables' expense," BloombergNEF says.
• Meanwhile, potential loss of trifectas in Iowa, Georgia and Ohio could reduce those states' odds of favoring gas.

The bottom line: The AI boom is a big tailwind for gas-fired power, but state-level elections will help determine the strength of that boost.

One issue is breaking through even among the most loyal Republican supporters: gas prices.

Why it matters: Republicans promised to slash gas prices. But the Iran war sent them soaring, up 37% since President Trump took office.

• Republicans call it temporary. But there are limits to what voters will accept.

Driving the news: On recent campaign trips with House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) and Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), gas prices were the most frequent concern raised at events attended by Axios.

• These weren't rooms full of undecided voters. They were GOP donors, activists and supporters who had turned out to help Republicans win in November.

The big picture: Republican candidates are feeling the pressure too.

• Texas Republican Senate nominee Ken Paxton privately blamed the Iran war and gas prices for his campaign struggles, according to audio obtained by Axios.

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🏠 Per Reuters, the Energy Department will offer to loan about a third of the country's 1 million-barrel home heating oil reserve.

• Why it matters: Northeast homes reliant on heating oil are facing huge cost increases amid the diesel crunch, though one analyst said the volumes are "not going to move the needle."

🚗 Tesla and SpaceX have formed special committees to discuss a potential merger — and Elon Musk thinks "it's a good idea," the CEO of both companies said yesterday.

• Why it matters: The companies have increasingly been collaborating on chips and AI projects — and Musk leads both companies — prompting widespread speculation that they could join forces. Go deeper.

⛽ Via Argus Media, "The US is looking at 'some opportunities' to help re-open refineries that have been shut within the past decade, secretary of energy Chris Wright said."

🔋 Bloomberg reports that GM led a $108 million Series B round for Peak Energy, which will help expand manufacturing of its sodium-ion-based grid-scale storage batteries.

That's projected warming above pre-industrial levels this century even if countries fulfilled their current emissions pledges under the Paris Agreement and "similar efforts continue," a major new UN report finds.

Why it matters: It's among several metrics in the annual "emissions gap" report that shows the world falling well short of Paris goals to limit unfolding and future harms from climate change.

• The 2.6°C projection is higher than last year's analysis due to the U.S. bailing on Paris and "revised estimates of historical emissions," it finds.

Go deeper: Full report and executive summary ... NYT coverage