Oil markets are taking President Trump's claim that the Iran ceasefire is "over" seriously, but not literally.

Why it matters: The price jump is big, but even now, there are signs that the markets aren't expecting a complete return to war.

The latest: Prices climbed this morning after Trump said that while negotiations can continue, they are a "waste of time."

• His comments followed the U.S. conducting a new round of strikes on Iran, retaliation for renewed Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The global benchmark Brent crude is $77.53 per barrel this morning, about $5 above where it began the week following increases yesterday and today.

My thought bubble: Today's rise is sharp, but there have been larger spikes during the conflict, and prices are nowhere near levels in the spring, when Brent briefly touched $126 in April.

• That suggests the market hive-mind isn't pricing in a full re-escalation of the war that brings another prolonged closure of the strait or forces regional producers to again cut output from wells.
• Plus, substantial volumes of oil have flowed on tankers out of the region in recent weeks, improving the market's balances somewhat.

Yes, but: "Even if no sustained physical disruption materializes, uncertainty around vessel safety, insurance costs, potential delays, and the risk of further retaliation is likely to keep volatility elevated in the near term," the research and consulting firm Rystad Energy said in a note today.

• "Traffic through the strait will almost certainly remain reduced until the security situation becomes clearer and market participants gain more visibility on whether a diplomatic off-ramp remains available," it adds.

Driving the news: Yesterday, the U.S. revoked the temporary waivers it issued as part of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Iran that had allowed Tehran to sell oil, the Treasury Department announced.

• But as Bloomberg's Javier Blas points out, that still enables significant Iranian sales.
• "While the revocation doesn't fundamentally change oil market dynamics, it's important from a sentiment perspective" by showing risks that the U.S.-Iran agreement breaks down, ING analysts said in a note.

What we're watching: A sustained oil price rise could cause U.S. gasoline prices, which have been falling for weeks, to start rising anew.

A top renewables and storage group sees openings for progress on Capitol Hill as it looks to build more nationwide power on the political right.

Why it matters: Trump officials are targeting wind power, which the president overtly despises, and last year's GOP budget law phased out tax credits for wind and solar generation projects.

Driving the news: American Clean Power Association CEO Jason Grumet yesterday briefed reporters on the group's strategy — on and off Capitol Hill — in the near and longer term.

A few highlights of its quest for "policy durability"...

📃 Permitting: A big bipartisan deal is a top priority in this Congress — and one Grumet acknowledges is looking dicey.

• "We think the window of opportunity there is starting to close," he said, noting that a bipartisan Senate proposal from leaders of the environment and energy committees has yet to surface.
• Grumet's not especially hopeful about a lame duck deal.

💵 Tax policy: In the next Congress — assuming Democrats win control of at least one chamber — the group sees openings for new credits that support transmission projects, and improving incentives for domestic manufacturing.

• "We look forward to the opportunity, as we move into what we anticipate is divided government, to restore some of the bipartisan support for this industry," Grumet said.
• Boosting transmission would help ensure the grid is adequate for all energy technologies, he said.

🚢 Tariffs and trade: "We think there is growing discomfort in the Congress about the way tariffs are being used," Grumet said.

• There may be opportunities for Congress to make tariff policy less volatile, he said.

💪 Building power among conservatives: The group has been expanding its communications and messaging.

• One channel is the pro-solar "American Energy First" coalition of companies created in late 2025 that's affiliated with the group. It includes "clean energy companies that have worked together to activate a network of conservative thought leaders and digital influencers," Grumet said.
• Work to date included a poll conducted by former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway's firm.
• American Clean Power created a separate new grassroots effort last year called PowerVotes that aims to mobilize conservative support for permitting reform and state-level project siting work.
• And it's expanding efforts to build support across the political spectrum via platforms like TikTok, Substack and Instagram.

What's next: American Clean Power will help a group of member companies launch a major new consumer outreach campaign this fall about the benefits of clean energy.

• "It's really the first time that the industry is putting significant resources behind that kind of consumer engagement, consumer awareness," Grumet said.

🌳 Google and McKinsey are jointly contracting for 335,000 tons of CO2 removal over 10 years from nature-based removal company Thryve.Earth, while Chinese tech giant Tencent separately agreed to 300,000 tons.

• Why it matters: The purchases, to support landscape restoration in the Indonesian island of Sulawesi, are Thryve.Earth's first corporate purchase commitment agreements. It's also Tencent's first nature-based commitment outside of China, the announcement states.
• State of play: "This project restores degraded land in Sulawesi through fruit and timber trees that store carbon while generating lasting income for local communities," the companies said.
• Catch up quick: The Google and McKinsey commitment comes via the wider Symbiosis Coalition, a group of corporate heavyweights supporting nature-based removal that also includes Meta, Microsoft and others. Go deeper

⛏️ Senior Senate Democrats are probing "conflict of interest concerns" about the U.S. investment in USA Rare Earth, due to involvement of Cantor Fitzgerald. That's Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick's former firm that his sons now run. The WSJ has more.

⚛️ Nuclear fuel maker Standard Nuclear disclosed yesterday it aims to raise $355.9 million in its planned IPO, Axios Pro Deals reports.

🌡️ Quaise Energy, a geothermal startup looking to tap "superhot" (300-500°C) resources far below Earth's surface, raised $134 million in Series B finance. Canary Media has details.

🧳 EPA's top air pollution regulator, Aaron Szabo, is leaving the agency, the NYT reports.

Rivian's stock plunged that much yesterday after the key U.S. electric vehicle maker announced plans to raise more money via a new stock offering.

• It more than reversed last week's bump when the company announced second-quarter deliveries — a proxy for sales — that beat Wall Street expectations. Go deeper

"It's kind of a best of times, worst of times moment. We have the best fundamentals and the worst politics an industry could imagine."