Exclusive: The Senate permitting plan would cut emissions from power plants in the near term and help keep electricity prices down, a new analysis finds.

Why it matters: The study from scholars at Resources for the Future, a nonpartisan think tank, offers some of the most detailed independent modeling yet of the bill's effects.

• It will help inform lobbying and advocacy around the bill ahead of a test vote looming on Nov. 9.

Driving the news: The analysis models how the bill would affect the power sector compared with current law and policies. Among the findings from its central scenario:

• It would drive "robust" transmission expansion (see above), enabling "use of additional clean energy and existing resources of all types."
• Overall electricity system costs are an estimated 3.5% to 7% lower each year through 2041 compared to a no-bill baseline, saving over $350 billion total through 2050 in present-value terms.
• That should translate into lower electricity bills for people, co-author Kevin Rennert tells Axios, though the study does not directly model retail prices.

The bill would boost the build-out of renewables, partly enabled by expansion of transmission, with added clean energy displacing fossil fuels even though additions of gas-fired capacity still occur.

• CO2 from the power sector would initially drop as more coal is edged aside, and then climb over time — but remain below levels projected without the bill.

By the numbers: In 2028, there's roughly 60 gigawatts more clean energy capacity on the grid in the study's central outlook compared to a baseline of current law and policy.

Yes, but: The study — which uses a model developed by the Energy Department's National Laboratory of the Rockies — doesn't attempt to analyze every aspect of the wide-ranging bill.

• For example, it does not capture how changes in environmental laws would affect mining, pipelines, and various activities outside the power sector.

Catch up quick: There's a lot of other analysis flying around in the intense public and closed-door lobbying over the bill.

• A new White House study finds the bill would eventually boost GDP by $82 billion to $164 billion annually and provide substantial savings on power bills.
• And Punchbowl News reports that the Solar Energy Industries Association is circulating an analysis on Capitol Hill showing that under the bill, solar and wind would together provide over 37% of power generation in 2035 vs. around 20% under "obstructed permitting."

What we're watching: Emissions, renewables deployment, and costs are several factors in the permitting bill battle, but hardly the only ones as some environmentalists and other critics take aim at the bill.

• Other contested terrain includes the effect on consultation with Native American tribes, historic preservation and more.
• The NAACP, for instance, is out with a new document strongly criticizing the bill.

This chart from the RFF analysis shows how it sees the bill initially pushing power plant emissions downward.

• Even that eventual upward trend is hardly guaranteed.
• This kind of study is by definition packed with assumptions and variables that the authors acknowledge — the future being the future and all.
• For instance, it uses a "high-electrification demand scenario to represent the rapid increase in demand from data centers and other sources."

Big Oil earnings are underway! Multinational giants Shell and TotalEnergies both reported higher profits this morning, propelled by the refining segments.

Why it matters: The numbers reflect how the Iran war and strikes on Russian refineries have upended the market.

• Higher fuel prices are playing a starring role in the U.S. midterm elections.

📻 Driving the news: Shell reported $10.8 billion in third-quarter profits, up 10% from already high Q2 levels and its biggest haul since Q2 of 2022.

• It reflects "strong operational performance in a continued volatile and elevated commodity price environment with record refining margins," Shell said alongside the numbers.
• TotalEnergies notched $9.1B in Q3 profit, up 51% from the prior quarter.

🔍 What's next: Exxon, Chevron and BP all report tomorrow morning.

• Look for the results to play into the final stretch of the election.
• Tethering Big Oil earnings to fuel prices under President Trump is part of Democrats' and allied groups' political playbooks.

That's the amount of U.S. data center capacity currently under construction, per research and consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, with several hundred GW on the drawing board at some stage.

Zoom out: While the pipeline is growing, the surge in local moratoriums now affects more than 18% of planned capacity.

• "The latest data reveals projects are steadily advancing from early development to permitting and construction phases," senior analyst Caitlin Connelly said in a statement.
• "However, power availability and local opposition will remain key constraints to near-term buildout."

"Let's not fall into the trap to have endless new rounds on financing. The problem needs something much more fundamental."