There's fresh evidence that President Trump and his lieutenants are willing to sacrifice "drill, baby, drill" in the U.S. for low prices and other policy priorities.

Why it matters: Modest prices and a revival of trade friction won't help bring a new surge in domestic production.

The big picture: A growing number of recent decisions point to a push to keep energy prices low at the expense of producers.

• "100% of Americans consume oil and natural gas every day of their life, and 1% of Americans produce oil and gas, so high prices are a win for 1% ... but it's a net loss for the other 99%," Energy Secretary Chris Wright told an industry forum in Washington last week.

The intrigue: Trump's quest for Greenland now means higher tariffs against European trading partners.

• Trade battles put downward pressure on prices by slowing economic growth and hence demand.
• That's one reason producers despise tariffs. The other: higher costs for steel and other goods they need, which eat into profitability.

Catch up quick: Oil prices jumped last week on Trump's threats to hit Iran, then gave back some of the gains when he backed off.

• WTI, the U.S. benchmark, remains under $60 per barrel — too low to spark a drilling surge.

State of play: Trump, to be sure, does many things the industry wants.

• Producers are psyched about policies like expanded oil and gas leasing, including far more offshore auctions. But that's often more about setting the stage for long-term projects.
• They also support paring back Biden-era climate and pollution rules, though there's some angst about unintended consequences of going too far.

Yes, but: In the near-term, U.S. oil production faces domestic stagnation.

• The Energy Department's stats arm sees output staying flat this year and dipping in 2027, albeit from record levels.

Between the lines: I don't mean to oversimplify here. Even on just the upstream side of the sprawling sector, there's really no single "oil industry."

• Instead, there's a constellation of players whose opportunities vary based on where they operate, size, what they specialize in, risk tolerance, and so forth.

What we're watching: Venezuela.

• It's another wild card in an already oversupplied market, with the feasibility and timelines for output growth uncertain.
• Some analysts see potential for rather fast increases, even if returning Venezuela to the 3.5 million-plus barrels per day in the late 1990s would take many years and untold billions of dollars.
• White House officials call post-Maduro Venezuela a huge opportunity for U.S. producers and contractors.

The bottom line: Trump 2.0 is a split screen for oil producers.

Gas turbine maker GE Vernova's share price bounced over 6% on Friday after the White House and a bipartisan crew of governors pressed PJM to help tech companies secure new power.

Why it matters: It's a sign of early fallout from Friday's push for much more aggressive steps to finance new generation to fuel the AI boom — without sticking consumers with the bill.

Catch up quick: Trump officials and the governors of 13 states — including Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia — want PJM to hold an emergency auction for companies to bid on 15-year contracts for new capacity.

• But it's not clear what will come of the non-binding request, and PJM's board issued its own, separate plan later in the day.

What they're saying: "With 15-yr contracts and expedited timelines, gas-fired generation — particularly combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGTs) — is likely to dominate procurement, alongside some storage deployments," Jefferies analysts said in a note today.

• Jefferies' Julien Dumoulin-Smith sees GE Vernova as the "clearest winner," but its note also sees upside for other gas infrastructure and production companies.

Yes, but: Shares of several independent power producers tumbled, with Talen Energy falling over 11%, Constellation Energy dropping nearly 10%, and Vistra Energy down 7.6%.

• "Those companies traded down due to investor concern that existing power plants will be disadvantaged — not just in the near-term, but potentially structurally going forward — if the emergency auction floods the market with new power plants in the coming years," Josh Price of the advisory firm Capstone tells me via email.

He sees various other concerns weighing on investors too, like the possibility that hyperscalers won't contract directly with power companies.

• Still, a Capstone note highlights the uncertain bureaucratic path ahead and doesn't see "material risk" for independent producers.

Go deeper: Trump makes a political power play on data centers

SOLV Energy — which engineers, builds and operates solar and storage projects — on Friday filed to go public in what Renaissance Capital projects could be a $750 million-plus IPO.

Why it matters: Data centers' thirst for power helps counteract Trump 2.0's anti-renewables stance as tech companies scour for electrons from all kinds of sources.

State of play: SOLV's SEC filing cites tech companies' need for energy, and preference for carbon-free power, and a whole bunch of other reasons why its services are needed.

The bottom line: The filing sums up the U.S. power situation nicely.

• "The combination of growth in the number and capacity of data centers, manufacturing reshoring, increasing use of HVAC caused by more extreme weather, electrification of industrial processes and retirement of existing coal-fired generation facilities are resulting in rapid load growth that cannot be met by existing generation capacity."

Fusion startup Xcimer Energy plans to pick a site by year's end to host what would be the world's largest laser.

Why it matters: Companies, investors and governments are racing to try to commercialize fusion tech as a limitless form of clean energy.

Driving the news: Xcimer cofounder Alexander Valys told Axios that while the Denver-based company had hoped to make a decision by the end of 2025, it needs more time.

• "We are looking at a few different states," Valys said. "We'd love to stay in Colorado. But the next facility is going to be the world's largest, biggest brightest laser. It will have a bunch of other applications outside of fusion.
• "Because of all those other applications, we're really making sure where is the location that will have the most value."

How it works: Xcimer is using a form of ultraviolet gas laser called an excimer laser, which is already used by sectors like semiconductor manufacturing.

• The lasers can produce longer pulses, leading to lower-power, less expensive systems.
• Xcimer ultimately will use its lasers to compress nuclear fuel and kick off a fusion reaction. The idea is to make the lasers cheap enough to enable fusion to be commercial.

What we're watching: Valys joined other fusion executives in D.C. last week to lobby Hill and administration officials as the sector seeks up to $10 billion in federal funding.

• "The U.S. is in the lead in fusion, but not everyone really realizes what a race we're in," he said. "China, the U.K., Germany and Japan are putting in substantial capital and helping privately funded fusion."

🤝 ICYMI: Energy Secretary Chris Wright is looking to secure oil and critical minerals deals with Venezuela in the next few weeks ahead of a trip to Caracas, he said in a Friday interview with Axios. Full story.

🕵️ Top Democrats on several Senate committees are asking 15 banking giants whether they're involved in the Trump administration's new control over Venezuelan oil sales and revenues.

• Why it matters: The letters are a hint of oversight to come if Democrats regain control of either chamber of Congress in the midterms.

"Is there bankable land with potential for power?"

Expect a lot more on data centers and what will power them in Davos this week.