If a U.S.-Iran peace deal actually happens this time — and that's still a big if— consumers have a long road ahead before filling up returns all the way to the good old days of early 2026.

Why it matters: Even if the Strait of Hormuz opened right away, pump prices will likely remain higher — maybe a lot higher — than pre-war levels at least through the midterm elections.

• U.S. retail prices are tethered to global oil markets that will be in turmoil for a while.
• The average U.S. price for regular gasoline was $4.54 per gallon yesterday, compared to just under $3 pre-war, per AAA data.

What we're watching: Some price relief would come within days of the Strait of Hormuz truly reopening, per Patrick De Haan of the market data and analysis firm GasBuddy.

• But the rest of the recovery would take longer. He sees prices coming down by about a third of the wartime jump within one to three months.
• "The next third might take 3-6 months, and we'd finally get back to pre-war prices I'd say right now in early/mid 2027," De Haan, the firm's head of petroleum analysis, tells me via email.

Between the lines: The reasons it will take so long are rooted in both global fuel movements and the economics of retail pricing at home.

• Reviving oil loadings and transit from the Mideast will take time, and so will bringing back the crude production that Persian Gulf producers dialed down when export routes were cut off.

"Even assuming a true and lasting end to the military conflict, it would still be several months before traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to its pre-war level," Rob Smith, a top fuels analyst with S&P Global Energy, said via email.

How it works: In the short term, even when oil prices fall — which they have already this week on news of progress toward a deal — gas stations are working through the higher-cost inventory they bought when prices were higher.

• It's one of the reasons market-watchers point out the "rocket and feathers" dynamic — retail fuel costs shoot up when oil prices do, but can decline slowly even when crude falls sharply.

The bottom line: "U.S. gasoline prices would ... decline in the months following an end to the war but would be unlikely to return to pre-war levels before the end of the year," said Smith.

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There are fresh signals that Big Tech's longstanding climate and clean energy plans are sagging under the weight of the newer, power-thirsty AI boom.

The latest: Microsoft may delay or shelve its goal of matching 100% of its electricity use on an hourly basis with clean energy, Bloomberg reported.

• It's one of several aggressive Microsoft sustainability targets.
• The report comes on the heels of Microsoft's pause of new carbon removal purchase deals.

The big picture: The climbdown would be among the starkest signs yet that tech giants' targets are colliding with AI power needs — even as the companies invest heavily in renewables and nuclear.

• Microsoft said that last year it met its target of matching 100% of its annual global electricity consumption with renewable energy.
• But doing it hourly is trickier.

Yes, but: Microsoft didn't directly address the anonymously sourced report. It issued a statement touting its wider environmental work and goals, while adding, "we may make adjustments to our approach."

• "Microsoft remains committed to its company goals to be carbon negative, water positive, zero waste, and protect ecosystems," said Melanie Nakagawa, the company's chief sustainability officer.

Zoom out: Jack Andreasen Cavanaugh, who works on climate for Columbia's energy think tank, argues more Big Tech policy advocacy is more important than clean energy and carbon removal deals.

• "[T]he marginal dollar and the marginal hour of executive attention would generate more deployment if directed toward policy advocacy than toward the next voluntary purchase agreement," he writes for Latitude Media.

What we're watching: How other tech heavyweights navigate the tension between climate targets and the AI buildout.

🦋 PJM Interconnection, operator of the largest U.S. power grid, is out with ideas for reshaping how the market functions.

• Why it matters: It's a frank admission of what's not working. The report aims to address a tough and risky situation — surging demand from data centers and other sources, constraints on the speed of new generation, and high prices.
• Threat level: It warns of a "credibility trap." That means: "[H]igh scarcity prices that are economically necessary to signal the need for investment become, in this environment, the trigger for governmental intervention that undermines the credibility of those same prices. ... Capital stays on the sidelines; the shortage persists."
• What's next: The analysis floats various options around longer-term contracting and pricing and more. One "would make explicit what today happens by default — that when supply falls short, some customers may bear more of the burden than others." Full report ... E&E News coverage.

📈 Shell beat expectations with a $6.9 first quarter profit, more than twice its adjusted earnings in the last three months of 2025.

• Why it matters: It's among the majors seeing higher returns during the Iran war, with earnings bolstered by higher prices and trading income. Those gains more than offset lower production due to the crisis, especially from LNG in Qatar.

🚗 Via Reuters, "Rivian is working on undisclosed variants of its R2 electric vehicles, the company's CEO said, days after starting volume production ​of the smaller and more affordable SUVs."

• What we're watching: Lucid Motors, another key U.S. EV player, "suspended its vehicle production guidance for the year as its incoming CEO evaluates the all-electric vehicle manufacturer's business operations," CNBC reports.

The dueling IPOs of nuclear firm X-energy and geothermal company Fervo Energy highlight the curious way the market is pricing next-gen energy.

Why it matters: The companies' IPOs are among the hottest in clean energy this year.

By the numbers: X-energy's valuation landed at $9.1 billion when it priced its shares last month. Its market cap has since fluctuated between $8.5 billion and $12.5 billion.

• Fervo Energy targeted a valuation that could reach $6.5 billion when it prices shares, likely next week.

The intrigue: Fervo's geothermal projects will deliver power many years before X-energy's reactors.

• Fervo's Cape Station project is targeting late 2026, while X-energy's projects could be operational in the early 2030s.
• Fervo's pilot project has been delivering electrons to the grid since 2023.

Zoom in: X-energy is indeed generating more revenue than Fervo, which is basically pre-commercial, reporting just $140,000 in 2025 revenue.

• But the bulk of X-energy's 2025 revenue, at $109.1 million, comes from government-linked contracts and development services, as well as grants.
• Fervo reported a net loss of $57.8 million in 2025, and X-energy saw a net loss of $389.9 million last year.

Zoom out: The AI boom, backed by U.S. federal support, is driving public market exuberance for nuclear.

• Geothermal can also deliver baseload power for AI data centers, but lacks the organizational and lobbying history of the nuclear industry.

What we're watching: Given the longer timelines for all nuclear reactors, even SMRs, public market sentiment could swiftly change and depress the nuclear stocks that have popped over the past year.

Talk to our sales team about Axios Pro Deals — where this story first appeared — for a steady diet of scoops and smart analysis.

"[I]t remains far from clear that there is any material movement toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, or if we are instead stuck in a rebranded 'ceasefire with no oil' purgatory for the time being."