Let's break down last night's test vote on the big bipartisan Senate permitting bill, and what comes next.

Why it matters: The legislation could transform how America builds energy infrastructure, with major implications for everything from electricity costs to data centers.

• Cutting permit timelines and creating a more predictable process for energy projects is a top priority for fossil fuels and renewables sectors.
• But critics argue the Senate plan unacceptably weakens environmental protections and tribal input.

A few takeaways...

🗳️ The big margin was politically lopsided. The 73-25 split to advance the bill "was as good or a little bit better" than what co-author Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) was expecting, she told reporters in the Capitol.

• The GOP split was 51-1 in favor, with only Sen. Mike Rounds (S.D.) voting no.
• 21 Democrats and Maine independent Sen. Angus King voted yes, while 23 Dems and independent Sen. Bernie Sanders were against advancing the bill toward full debate.

🟡 It was tentative. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a statement afterward that he has "outstanding concerns" with the bill that he'll "fight to address" through amendments.

• He's not alone in only a tentative yes vote.

🌎 Climate hawk vs. climate hawk. The most outspoken Senate Democrats on climate change split on the vote.

• Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) joined coauthors Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) in backing the measure.
• But Sens. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.), along with Sanders, all voted no.

🕰️ Watch the clock. Whitehouse pledged a "very healthy" amendment process. But the Senate is now up against the lame duck calendar, and the House would still need to act on whatever emerges.

📉 Climate's cachet has fallen. Heinrich and Whitehouse, at a pre-vote press conference, emphasized affordability, data center accountability and jobs before touting power sector emissions curbs from the bill.

• But Whitehouse also sought to reassure climate and environmental organizations of further climate work when Dems have the majority, calling it "the floor, not the ceiling."

🃏 President Trump is a wild card. His comments shortly before yesterday's vote that he would not approve wind turbines, while reiterating his full support for the bill, rocketed around the Capitol.

• Still, the White House reaffirmed that the president "stands 100%" behind the bill.

What we're watching: Proposed amendments as they roll in, but also the politics in the closely divided House.

• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) criticized the bill last week and called for more engagement with his caucus.
• Asked yesterday whether the Senate co-authors' revisions addressed his concerns, Jeffries told reporters that it's still under review.

Full story

The national average gasoline price today fell below $4 per gallon for the first time since July 19, per AAA tracking.

Why it matters: High prices were highly visible election season reminders of broader cost-of-living increases that helped fuel Democratic midterm gains.

The big picture: Falling gasoline costs are following recent declines in crude oil prices.

• Traders are responding to signs of potential U.S.-Iran diplomacy and ascendant Democrats' pledges to help force an end to the conflict.

The latest: The global benchmark Brent crude fell below $90 today for the first time since late August before regaining some ground.

• The latest drop follows President Trump saying yesterday that a renewed military campaign against Iran is "quite unlikely" and "doesn't seem to be necessary."

The bottom line: The market is unwinding the geopolitical risk premium "as expectations grow that the conflict between the US and Iran could move towards de-escalation," ING analysts said in a note, adding that more oil making its way out of the region is also pushing prices down.

Worldwide CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are projected to dip this year due to reduced oil and gas supply from the Iran crisis, a new analysis finds.

Why it matters: The Global Carbon Project, a research consortium, provides closely watched annual tracking of emissions and what's causing them.

Yes, but: The data, arriving as COP31 is unfolding, does not signal a "structural" peak in these planet-warming emissions even as non-emitting sources grow.

Zoom in: The consortium projects a 0.4% decline this year, with an uncertainty range of a 1.5% drop to a 0.6% rise.

• Emissions from oil use are slated to fall 1.9%, "with reductions in all major world regions as well as in international shipping and aviation," a summary states.
• Natural gas emissions are projected to dip 0.3%, with declines in China offset by higher levels in the U.S. and a "mixed picture" elsewhere.
• Coal emissions are projected to rise by 0.6%, with a "strong" jump in India and slight rise in China, partly offset by substantial drops in the U.S. and EU.

The bottom line: Rapid growth in renewables, batteries and EVs is "pushing emissions down in dozens of countries, and slowing emissions growth in many more," said co-author Glen Peters of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research.

• "But the changes are not yet sufficient to lock in a peak and decline in global emissions," his statement adds.

🇻🇪 Exxon has a "preliminary deal" to explore investments in Venezuela, per the WSJ and the NYT.

• Why it matters: The oil giant, which exited two decades ago, has the balance sheet and know-how to help boost production.
• Yes, but: "This memorandum is a meaningful first step, but any future investment would require stable policies, clear regulations, strong investment protections and competitive returns," Exxon tells Axios and other outlets.

🇹🇷 Via Reuters, "COP31 host Turkey will urge countries on Tuesday to put a goal to increase the share of electricity in global energy use at the centre of the conference's final agreement, despite criticism the plan could do little ‌to cut emissions."

• Why it matters: Corralling support for increasing electricity's share of energy demand to 35% by 2035 is a major goal of the UN climate summit organizers.

⚛️ The Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved construction permits for small modular reactor developer X-energy to build four units at a Dow chemical manufacturing plant in Texas, the companies said.

• Why it matters: It's the "first advanced nuclear facility approved for an industrial site" in the U.S., X-energy said, with Dow making a similar statement.
• Yes, but: Dow has not made a final decision to proceed with the project.

"One of our most striking findings this year is that a security-first energy strategy, pursued not out of climate intent but out of necessity, can deliver lower emissions than our central base case."