New data captures the scope of today's U.S. solar boom — and AI could help developers swimming upstream in the Trump era's next stages.

Why it matters: "Data center demand is helping offset some political headwinds for utility‑scale solar," Wood Mackenzie analyst Kaitlin Fung tells me via email.

• Solar is the fastest-growing U.S. power source right now. But analysts have lowered long-term growth projections, thanks to the federal policy U-turn.

Driving the news: Solar generation rose by over one-fourth and met 61% of U.S. electricity demand growth last year, per new tallies from the climate think tank Ember.

• "It met all the rise in daytime electricity demand," states its analysis of U.S. Energy Information Administration data.
• Solar also matched some rising evening consumption as battery deployment expanded.

What's next: Separate EIA data and forecasts show solar generation accounting for 8% of total U.S. power this year and hitting 10% in 2027 — double the 2024 share.

Yes, but: The 2025 GOP budget law hastens the phaseout of federal tax credits for large projects (and they're already gone for home solar).

• Projects must start operating by Dec. 31, 2027, to qualify, unless they start construction by early July this year.
• And Trump officials have pulled back permitting for projects on federal lands or that require other federal approvals.

Threat level: Analysts have trimmed their growth forecasts by varying degrees.

• For instance, BloombergNEF last fall cut its utility-scale solar outlook for 2025-2035 by 25%.

State of play: Rising electricity thirst — from AI, manufacturing, EVs, extreme weather and more — could claw back some lost ground.

• Tech companies can't afford to be too selective as they seek electrons for AI, and many also have aggressive renewables and climate goals.

Catch up quick: The new IPO filing by SOLV Energy, a provider of construction services for solar and battery projects, captures the dynamic.

• It mentions data centers more than a dozen times, including the lead of a section on "market opportunity."

The big picture: Woodmac sees U.S. electricity demand rising nearly 3% annually through 2035, with data centers a big driver.

• This is bullish for solar in multiple U.S. regions.
• "Still, permitting delays, limited labor availability, interconnection, and grid constraints are expected to slow near‑term growth through about 2029," Fung said.
• But she sees faster utility-scale growth in the 2030s, especially in Arizona, Texas, Nevada, Virginia and Florida.

What we're watching: The rising political salience of electricity costs — and what it means for renewables and storage.

• Renewables backers see an opening to make a wallet-based argument.
• The American Clean Power Association just dropped a report that claims meeting demand growth in PJM — the largest U.S. grid region — will cost households thousands of dollars more over a decade if renewables and storage aren't in the mix.

OpenAI is committing to "paying our own way on energy, so that our operations don't increase your electricity prices" as it develops the big Stargate data center campuses.

Why it matters: The data center boom is facing a backlash that tech giants are trying to head off.

• OpenAI's pledge, in a wider blog post late last night, follows Microsoft's vow last week to cover electricity costs to shield consumers.

Driving the news: The Sam Altman-led AI firm said the power pledge would be "tailored to the region."

• "Depending on the site, this can range from bringing new dedicated power and storage that the project fully funds, to adding and paying for new energy generation and transmission resources," it said.
• OpenAI and partners have data center sites under development in Texas, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

State of play: The post touts existing efforts, like OpenAI's partners working with WEC Energy Group in Wisconsin to underwrite power investment with a dedicated electricity rate.

What we're watching: How tech giants work with regulators, power companies and grid managers in different regions.

• PJM, which oversees the nation's largest grid, faces political pressure to speed new generation without sticking consumers with the bill.

📊 The International Energy Agency just revised its 2026 oil demand growth forecast upward to 930,000 barrels per day, up from 860,000 in last month's outlook.

• Why it matters: The oversupplied market has been keeping a lid on prices, but that dynamic persists even with the new estimate. IEA sees global supply growing by 2.5 mbd this year.

👷 Oilfield services giant Halliburton is "seeking resumes for a range of positions in Venezuela" per a Jan. 16 job posting, "signalling a potential move back to the South American country," Reuters reports.

💵 Venezuela's interim leader Delcy Rodriguez "confirmed that her country had received $300 million from Washington's sale of Venezuelan crude and said she would use it to prop up the bolivar against the dollar," France24 and AFP report from her comments yesterday.

💵 New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill (D), on her first day in office, ordered state regulators to provide ratepayers credits that will offset electricity price increases.

• Why it matters: Power prices are atop the political agenda across the country. The order also directs regulators to explore a suite of other ways to defray costs, like reconsidering so-called special benefits charges on power bills.
• What we're watching: A second order calls the "electricity affordability crisis" an "emergency" and demands solicitations for solar and battery storage proposals, among other steps.

🕵️ Two House Democrats asked the Department of the Interior's internal watchdog to investigate whether the agency's third-ranking official played a role in green-lighting a lithium mine after her husband entered into a multimillion-dollar financial relationship with the mine's developer.

• Why it matters: Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), the Natural Resources Committee's top Democrat, and Rep. Maxine Dexter (D-Ore.) said recent evidence about Karen Budd-Falen "raises additional serious questions," including possible "violations of federal criminal law."
• The other side: Interior said Budd-Falen has served admirably across three administrations. "[H]er long record of professionalism and excellence ... speaks louder than any baseless accusation," the agency said in a statement.

⛏️ NOAA is issuing a final rule on deep-sea mining permitting that consolidates exploration license and commercial recovery permit applications.

• Why it matters: The two permits have been issued sequentially, a process that environmentalists said ensured safeguards. "It's simply shocking that this rule actually reduces monitoring and oversight for an extractive process that's hardly ever been done before," said Emily Jeffers, a senior attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity.

🛶 The House is expected to vote today on a Congressional Review Act resolution of disapproval to overturn Biden-era protections of northern Minnesota areas from copper-nickel mining.

• Why it matters: Backers of the resolution say the high demand for critical minerals makes the move necessary, while environmentalists say it sets a dangerous precedent to target public-lands withdrawals as rules under the CRA.

🛢️ Saudi Aramco sees "greater than expected financial gains" — running into the billions of dollars annually — from using AI to lower oilfield costs and boost productivity, Bloomberg reports.

• Why it matters: CEO Amin Nasser's comments at the World Economic Forum show how AI is helping oil giants cut costs and extract more fossil fuels, even as it also promises an array of clean tech applications.

🌍 Focus on climate is quite muted in Davos, per various reports like this one in Climate Home News, while energy security and fueling AI are higher on the agenda.

• What they're saying: "Energy costs will be key to deciding which country wins the AI race, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has said," CNBC reports.
• Threat level: "I've never seen energy security risks so multiplying — and the dark and long shadows of geopolitics — on the energy sector overall," IEA boss Fatih Birol said via Bloomberg.
• The intrigue: Lorenzo Simonelli, CEO of oilfield and energy tech giant Baker Hughes, tells the WSJ in Davos that climate is still present — but discussed in a different way.
• The bottom line: "It's moving away from the aspect of climate change as being the discussion, and it's around what is lower emissions energy and what makes financial sense," he said.

Geothermal energy developer Zanskar raised a $115 million Series C to develop multiple projects in the western U.S.

Why it matters: Geothermal is getting closer to the mainstream.

• Axios Pro Deals' Katie Fehrenbacher has more.