A new report underscores two truths about U.S. plans for gas-fired power plants: the numbers are stunning, yet stunningly speculative.

Why it matters: The AI boom is driving proposals for massive projects to supply data centers and other needs.

• The ballooning pipeline is bringing fresh fears about carbon emissions and localized air pollution.
• It's also a big challenge for regulators and planners.

"It is nearly impossible nowadays to guess what is a pie in the sky proposal, and what has a real chance of getting built," said report author Jenny Martos of Global Energy Monitor.

Stunning stat: The amount of U.S. capacity somewhere in the development pipeline doubled in the first half of 2026, per Global Energy Monitor's analysis.

• A whopping 189 gigawatts is planned for on-site data centers through the first half of 2026, roughly doubling (!) the pipeline at year-end 2025.

Driving the news: Overall, the U.S. pipeline has soared to 378 gigawatts, per the nonprofit that closely tracks projects internationally.

• More concretely, projects under construction climbed 76% in the first half of 2026 to 52 GW, around twice what China is currently building.
• A gigawatt can power roughly 750,000 U.S. homes.

Reality check: If all the 378 GW on the drawing board become reality, the U.S. fleet would grow by two-thirds.

• But the report tracks everything from construction to projects in much earlier stages that may or may not ultimately happen.
• "Pre-construction" and "announced" projects together account for about 86% of the U.S. pipeline.

State of play: The report highlights big questions. For instance, two-thirds of the capacity in development globally hasn't yet named a turbine or engine manufacturer.

What they're saying: "The directional signal here accurately reflects the near-term trends in power development to meet rising demand, [but] the long-term projections are highly uncertain," Jeff Dennis, executive director of the Electricity Customer Alliance, said via email.

• Dennis, a power market veteran, cites supply chain constraints, speculative data center projects and other factors.

Zoom in: Historically, around 30% of proposed U.S. gas-fired projects reach commercial operation, per Michael Thomas, founder of the market intelligence platform Cleanview.

• Applying that 30% to the 378 GW U.S. pipeline over a decade would mean about 11 GW annually, slightly above the 2005-2024 average, he said.

Threat level: That's still "a lot if you think we shouldn't be building any new fossil fuel infrastructure at all given how rapidly our planet is warming," he said via email.

• Thomas estimates that 20%-25% of what's on the drawing board will become operational, not 30%, noting that many are linked to uncertain data center projects.

What we're watching: The evolving backlash against data centers complicates things even further.

Texas has by far the biggest pipeline of projects somewhere in the development queue, far surpassing the rest of the top 10.

• It includes the 7.65 gigawatt, Amazon-backed GW Ranch proposal.

Yes, but: As I noted above, the report tracks everything from construction to projects in earlier stages that may or may not ultimately happen.

Friction point: Energy analyst Jane Flegal, writing on X, said the U.S. gas buildout should spur a deeper look at bureaucratic and cost barriers to fueling AI with "clean firm" sources.

• It's a term typically applied to tech including nuclear, geothermal, and long-duration storage.

☀️ Via Bloomberg, California is on the cusp of "allowing residents to install small plug-in solar systems on apartment balconies and in backyards to offset soaring electricity costs."

📃 The NYT explores brewing EPA changes in permitting procedures for some pollution sources, highlighting concerns it will make it harder for communities to weigh in on data center power plans.

⚖️ A federal appeals court rejected challenges to FERC's approval of Venture Global's big CP2 LNG project in Louisiana. E&E News has more.

Global renewables and storage investment in the first half of 2026 fell 11% from the same stretch last year, and is well below the 2024 peak, but "remains elevated compared to historic levels," per BloombergNEF.

The big picture: The research firm tallied $327.5 billion in global investment in the first half, with solar leading the way at nearly $198 billion.

• But financing for utility-scale solar fell 19% to the lowest level since 2021, with high supply challenging returns, making some projects less bankable.

Driving the news: Projects that combine renewables — mostly solar — and battery storage saw a record $25 billion in investment in the year's first six months, three times the amount in the same period last year.

The bottom line: "The concerns around revenue risk and returns that drove down investment in standalone solar are boosting the business case for assets that utilize storage," the report states.

"With its ability to synthesize knowledge from every scientific field, AI can accelerate innovation in the world's toughest technical challenges: providing reliable clean energy for everyone, combating climate change, growing enough food, eradicating diseases, and more."

Yes, but: Gates is also sounding a strikingly sober warning about AI, arguing the tech is advancing faster than governments and society are preparing for its consequences, Axios' Ina Fried reports.

That's the valuation of Emerald AI, a buzzy startup that helps transform data centers into flexible grid assets, after its new $150 million Series A raise.

• Announcement ... NYT coverage