Congress has its best chance in years to pass sweeping permitting legislation, but a series of political and policy obstacles could derail the bipartisan Senate plan.

Why it matters: Cutting hurdles for energy projects is a top priority for fossil fuels and renewables sectors, and major business groups more broadly.

Here are five risks to a lame-duck deal:

👱‍♂️ President Trump himself. The White House says it supports the bill, but Trump is mercurial, so nothing is final until it's final.

• His administration's willingness — or not — to loosen the screws on wind and solar projects it's restricting could also sway the lame-duck politics and complicate efforts to win Democratic support.
• Flashback: Co-author Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) last month cited "unresolved" questions about Trump officials returning to "regular order" for renewables, but credited their "very reasonable" proposal.

🗳️ A big blue wave. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), a senior House Democrat, has been arguing that Democrats will have more leverage next year.

• For now, there's little evidence that view is gaining traction among Democrats. The few definitive statements on the bill from lawmakers in both parties are supportive. But a strong Democratic showing in November could change that calculation.
• The big arguments against waiting: Dems won't have 60 votes even if they take the Senate, and Trump still needs to sign anything, limiting the prospects for a better deal next year.

🟩 Environmentalists. Groups with close ties to Dems — such as the Natural Resources Defense Council, League of Conservation Voters and Evergreen Action — are still weighing their positions on the bill.

• A coordinated push against it could make it harder for Democratic lawmakers to back the legislation.

⚡ Utilities. Regulated utilities would see new competition in transmission development and greater oversight of their planning and business.

• American Electric Power and Berkshire Hathaway Energy support the bill, but the sector's trade group — the Edison Electric Institute — has not taken a position.

⏰ The lame-duck squeeze. A busy legislative calendar, potential changes to the bill and uncertainty about lawmakers' appetite for legislating after the election could leave too little time to secure passage through both chambers.

• Already, House Energy and Commerce Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) told Punchbowl News that he wants to modify the electricity provisions.
• If Republicans lose the House majority, their willingness to push a major bipartisan deal across the finish line could diminish.
• "It's hard to convince people to hang around and wait for something to happen when they're being constantly reminded that they lost," Jeff Navin, a former Democratic Hill staffer and co-founder of clean tech lobbying firm Boundary Stone Partners, said via email.

The bottom line: This is a partial list!

• To riff on Mickey Rourke's advice to William Hurt in the great 1981 noir flick "Body Heat," there are 50 ways to mess up any bill, and if you can think of 25, you're a genius.
• Needless to say, I'm no genius.

Jason Grumet, head of the American Clean Power Association that strongly backs the bill, sounded optimistic notes about utilities' position.

• "There are certainly some utilities who have indicated that there are some changes that they'd like to see as the bill moves forward, but they're in the realm of the kinds of policy improvements that lots of different interests are going to be seeking," he said.
• But he added: "I think people recognize the space for amending the structure is very narrow."

Many states with tight governor's races have lots of data centers on the drawing boards, per new analysis from the market intelligence firm Cleanview.

Why it matters: The election outcomes and the policies that follow will sway future power demand in these states.

• The chart above shows projects that have not yet started construction.

What we're watching: Governors and state legislatures have power to block, slow, and set terms for development, a summary states.

• "They can pass moratoriums, strip tax breaks, appoint new utility regulators, and require more stringent environmental and labor standards."

🦞 Heating oil costs were a big part of last night's debate in Maine's tight Senate race, per the Maine Morning Star and other outlets.

🛢️ The Interior Department is easing review requirements for wintertime oil and gas exploration in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, drawing the ire of environmentalists.

🧑‍🔬 New DOE funding under the Genesis Mission — a program to harness AI for scientific breakthroughs — includes awards for fusion, geothermal, and critical minerals-related R&D.

Tom Cruise, Climate Warrior? (NYT)

Amy says: OK, this review makes me want to watch this movie ("Digger") a little bit more. But when I watched the trailer, I was turned off at the crudeness of the characters (I realize it's satire).

• I'll put it in the same category as the oil-themed TV show Landman, watching entertainment for work's sake.

Refinery outages pumping up fuel prices more than cost of crude oil (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

Ben says: This unpacks a trend hitting consumers worldwide and spilling into the U.S. midterm elections: why refined product prices have soared more than oil prices during the Iran conflict.

• In particular, it nicely explains regional differences in refinery capacity and what that has meant for fuel costs.
• Come for the lucid market description, stay for the reasons why market pressure will remain long after the Strait of Hormuz has normalized.

The USDA just made it way harder for farmers to get grants for solar (Canary Media)

Amy says: My family's cattle ranch was on the cusp of signing a deal under this program before President Trump was reelected, but then my parents ultimately made the decision to back out of it, citing the uncertainty. It doesn't look like this uncertainty is getting any better.

Oil Is Back In, Climate Is Out at a Marquee Energy Conference (WSJ)

Amy says: The (relatively) small size of this gathering, compared to, say, CERAWeek or the United Nations annual conference, actually means it's a better barometer of the changing zeitgeist because it has a more monolithic theme. And in this case, the changing times are obvious.

That's Delta Air Lines' estimated full-year increase in fuel costs, an expense that's lowering its projected profits, the carrier said today. Go deeper