A new paper helps explain why creating lasting and effective climate policy in the U.S. is so tough.

Why it matters: The U.S. is the world's second-largest emitter, and its policies, finance and diplomacy influence other countries — though the direction of course depends on who is in power here.

Driving the news: The study takes the pulse of U.S. "political elites, public servants, and policymakers" — congressional aides, lobbyists, law clerks, think tankers, policy pros, political journos and such.

• Among Republican elites in the 3,500-person survey, less than half agree with the scientific consensus on human-caused climate change.
• And many endorse the conspiracy theory that climate data is manipulated to undermine U.S. economic dominance.

The big picture: The paper is most concerned with what motivates beliefs — and finds partisanship isn't just a day job.

• It finds that "partisan polarization among elites reflects not only strategic electoral behavior but also privately held attitudes."
• Partisan ID "explains substantially more variation in elite climate beliefs than ideology, trust in science, or general conspiratorial predispositions," states the peer-reviewed paper in Environmental Research Communications.

What we're watching: Co-author Timothy M. LaPira, a James Madison University political scientist, sees tactical repercussions for backers of stronger climate policies.

• "If the belief gap were driven primarily by things like science distrust or climate conspiracy belief, the obvious remedy would be better science communication," he said via email.
• "But our regression [analysis] results show that partisanship is the main driver, and that's hard to change."

The bottom line: "Durable climate policy may depend less on persuasion than on political conditions that reduce the electoral costs Republican elites face when breaking with their party," he said.

🛑 Pentagon officials say the blockade of Iranian ports has been "fully implemented" and that the country's maritime trade has been "completely halted."

• Why it matters: The blockade shows an effort to increase economic pain on Iran to boost U.S. leverage, even though it further restricts already-throttled regional oil flows.

💵 Oil markets are weighing two opposing forces in Iran: escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, but also the prospects for new negotiations. Brent crude is trading around $95 this morning.

🛢️ The Treasury Department will not renew the month-long waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil that's slated to expire in a few days. "Treasury is moving aggressively with Economic Fury, maintaining maximum pressure on Iran," it said.

🇯🇵 Via Reuters, Japan plans to create a "financial framework worth about $10 billion to help Asian countries procure energy resources and bolster their stockpiles as Middle East tensions drive prices higher and disrupt supply chains."

🦞 Maine's legislature easily approved what would be the nation's first statewide moratorium on building large new data centers.

• Why it matters: It signals a growing backlash to the projects that, fairly or unfairly, are tethered to concerns about rising power bills.
• Yes, but: While roughly a dozen other states are weighing moratoria, Maine may not be a bellwether.
• What they're saying: "[T]his is unlikely to have a contagion effect on legislation beyond the Northeast, where high retail electricity prices have historically deterred hyperscalers," analysts with investment advisory and research firm Capstone said in a note.
• What we're watching: Gov. Janet Mills (D), who faces a tough June primary in her Senate campaign, has not said whether she will sign the bill. Go deeper via the Bangor Daily News.

⚖️ "The NAACP filed a lawsuit against Elon Musk's xAI on Tuesday, accusing the artificial intelligence company of violating the Clean Air Act with its use of natural gas-burning turbines to power data centers in and around Memphis, Tennessee," CNBC reports. Read the complaint.

Microsoft's pause in new carbon removal purchase deals is the latest sign 2026 will see a major slowdown in investment in the sector.

Why it matters: Microsoft made up the bulk of the industry's purchases.

Driving the news: Axios confirmed reports that Microsoft is telling some partners and suppliers that it's pausing future offtake deals with startups.

• Microsoft had signed first deals with many startups building new types of carbon removal systems, like spreading pulverized limestone rock on cropland and direct air capture.

State of play: Investment in carbon dioxide removal slowed in 2024 and 2025 after peaking between 2021 and 2023.

• Adding to the hurdles, the Trump administration pulled support for carbon removal, particularly big American hubs for direct air capture.

The latest: Microsoft emphasized in a new statement that its removal program has not ended.

• "[W]e continue to both build on and support our existing portfolio of both nature-based and technology-based solutions," chief sustainability officer Melanie Nakagawa said in a statement.

What they're saying: "[T]he news this week magnified a gap that already existed: more voluntary buyers were (and still are) needed to ensure this market keeps developing at pace," Hannah Bebbington of Frontier, the corporate consortium investing to expand the removal market, writes in a new post.

• But ultimately, scaling removal into a major weapon against global warming will require government policy-driven demand, argues Bebbington, the group's head of deployment.

💭 Katie's thought bubble: That carbon removal was being propped up so heavily by one player shows the weakness of the sector.

• Carbon removal needs a much broader and deeper bench of buyers to become an attractive industry for investors.

Talk to our sales team about Axios Pro Deals for a steady diet of scoops and smart analysis.

💵 Lucid Motors' latest deals and fundraising get to a wider trend: the expensive path to scaling hard tech often requires diversified business models to survive.

• State of play: Uber is buying another 25,000 Lucid vehicles for its budding robotaxi fleet, and investing another $200 million in the EV maker.
• Why it matters: It's the latest — and won't be the last — sign that robotaxis are emerging as a lifeline in the soft EV sales market.
• Zoom out: Makers of other kinds of climate-friendly tech are also expanding their horizons. Think carbon removal companies getting into power generation and EV battery companies getting into stationary storage, for instance.
• Catch up quick: Lucid yesterday also announced a new CEO, new stock offerings, and a $550M preferred stock purchase from Saudi Arabia, a key backer for years. Go deeper.

🔋 EV maker Rivian is working with battery recycler and storage player Redwood Materials to power Rivian's Illinois manufacturing plant, the companies said.

• Why it matters: It will be the "largest repurposed battery energy storage system for a U.S. automotive manufacturer," the companies said.

🚜 Via Bloomberg, "Caterpillar Inc. has acquired self-driving electric tractor startup Monarch Tractor, according to people familiar with the matter."

That's the record projected U.S. crude oil exports this month, per data from market intel company Kpler, via the WSJ.

Why it matters: The Iran crisis is giving U.S. barrels even more cachet.

• But as we wrote Sunday, higher U.S. shipments won't come close to offsetting the loss of Mideast exports to global markets.