NEW YORK CITY — Senate negotiators are nearing a bipartisan permitting deal, but getting it done requires clear evidence that Trump officials will stop holding up renewable energy projects, a key senator said.

Why it matters: Permitting is a top legislative priority for major business groups, with incumbent and clean energy sectors alike looking to cut red tape.

Driving the news: A bipartisan agreement is "very close," Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) told me onstage at Axios House during Climate Week NYC.

• Schatz noted that he met yesterday with Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), the lead Democratic negotiator along with Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.).

⚔️ Friction point: He cautioned that lawmakers need to understand whether the administration is "going to lift its ban on solar and wind energy."

• He specifically cited the Pentagon's refusal to provide once-routine sign-offs needed for Federal Aviation Administration wind permits.
• "If those factors come together, I think we'll have a deal. Whether or not it's in the next couple of weeks I think remains to be seen," he said.

🆕 The latest: A fresh sign of the K Street permitting push landed this morning via a new Trump-facing ad from the powerful National Association of Manufacturers.

😬 Reality check: Schatz also warned that "usually that last five yards is the hardest five yards" and that backers also "need a theory of the case for passage in the House."

• Semafor reports that talks are "hitting a wall," with chances of a pre-election deal fading.

State of play: Asked what Democrats need from the White House, Schatz said they want tangible action on project approvals.

• "We're not very comfortable with a pig in a poke and sort of hoping that they see religion on this," he said.
• Schatz also said he'd like to see "statutory constraints" on the extent to which the departments of the Interior and War can continue to "do violence to the possibility of clean, cheap, abundant energy."

Catch up quick: Elsewhere in the interview, Schatz said Americans are "connecting the dots" between climate and affordability strain, citing higher insurance costs and non-renewal of policies.

The big picture: Schatz is a rising political force in the party, likely to replace the retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) as Democratic whip, the No. 2 position in leadership.

🔭 What we're watching: He riffed in broad terms about energy and climate goals if the party regains both chambers and the White House.

• Schatz called wind and solar the "low-hanging fruit" on emissions, but said nuclear, geothermal, and carbon removal are also important for carbon cuts — and have bipartisan support.
• "If we don't have technological and scaling and financing breakthroughs for firm power, then we're going to hit a wall in the mid-2030s," he said.

There are two new signs that both AI's emissions toll and potential to aid climate tech are getting more attention on the climate diplomacy circuit.

Catch up quick: The Turkish hosts of COP31 yesterday announced it will develop and seek support for the "Antalya Pledge on Artificial Intelligence."

• It's about "how AI is designed, procured, powered, deployed, measured and managed in support of climate and sustainable development objectives," the announcement states.
• There's also a new "AI for Clean Technologies Initiative" to support "AI-enabled clean-technology pilots in priority sectors." And there will be a dedicated day on tech and AI at the UN summit.

Friction point: The UN's top climate official, Simon Stiell, yesterday called on tech giants to improve their emissions performance, and warned more broadly that "AI leaders are now on thin ice when it comes to license to operate."

• "Energy-guzzling artificial intelligence is driving up planet-heating pollution from coal, oil and gas," he said in a speech at Climate Week NYC.

This ☝️ helpful graphic comes from our colleague Jim Sergent's look at what may be next in the U.S. data center buildout — and the energy stakes.

Why it matters: On average, the next generation of data centers is on track to consume 2.5 times more power than those opening in 2026. Full story

↩️ What we're watching: How much the political backlash could slow development.

• The latest pushback came yesterday, when Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) told state regulators to "halt all permits sought by data centers" until the state's grid manager completes its audit. CNBC has more.

📈 The number of Republicans pushing to pause or restrict diesel exports amid record prices keeps rising, though it's still a select group.

• The latest: Mike Rogers, Michigan's GOP Senate candidate, joined the club yesterday. So did Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican hopeful in Iowa's Senate contest, whose Democratic opponent Josh Turek also wants a pause.
• The big picture: Those are very tight races, which is a sign of the politics of diesel, even though many market analysts and oil industry officials are yelling from the rooftops that a ban would be bad policy.

📉 Brent crude has tumbled under $100 per barrel on reports that Saudi Arabia is resuming operations at its east-west pipeline and readying to restart loading oil at a crucial Red Sea port.

• What they're saying: Hope for "constructive discussions" at this week's United Nations General Assembly meeting is also putting downward pressure on what remain high prices, ING analysts said in a note.
• The latest: Brent is trading at $98.81 per barrel this morning.

That's Chinese companies' share of announced manufacturing investment in batteries, EVs, and wind and solar from 2019 through mid-2026, per Atlas Public Policy and the Clean Power Information Project.

State of play: Their new analysis has all kinds of wild stats on China's dominance, and cautions that the race for "clean energy leadership" rests on targeted choices, not just matching China's scale.

The bottom line: "Countries that can identify opportunities in emerging technologies and strategic supply chains, while balancing affordable deployment, resilient manufacturing, and trusted trade relationships, will capture the next phase of clean economy growth."

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Jigar Shah, the outspoken clean energy adviser, entrepreneur and podcaster, sported these kicks at his Axios House interview during Climate Week NYC yesterday.

• Shah quipped to Amy that they're his podcasting shoes, but the interview also covered more serious topics.
• He also told her that "I am not as smart as people purport me to be," but check out the interview and judge for yourself.