Axios Future of Energy

October 23, 2026
🍺 Happy Friday! We open with a look at whether sky-high diesel prices will hasten a shift to alternatives, then move on to...
- The latest on permitting, oil prices, AI risks, cleantech funding and more, all in 1,367 words, 5 minutes.
🙏 Thanks to Mackenzie Weinger and Chris Speckhard for editing, and to our brilliant Axios visuals team.
📻 Today marks 37 years since Janet Jackson dropped an absolute banger of a single that's today's intro tune...
1 big thing: Why soaring prices aren't breaking the diesel habit
The quickest and most affordable response to historically high diesel prices is also the simplest: Use less of it.
Why it matters: Diesel is so entrenched in farming, trucking and other industries that even soaring prices aren't enough — at least not yet — to prompt a wholesale shift to alternatives from electric semitrucks to manure-powered tractors.
Catch up fast: Diesel prices have climbed to record highs since the U.S. war with Iran began in February, rising faster than gasoline amid global oil supply disruptions.
The big picture: Gasoline gets the attention, but diesel is the workhorse of the American economy. It powers grocery trucks, tractors, freight trains, construction equipment, hospital backup generators and even school buses.
Driving the news: The price spike is hitting farmers during fall harvest.
- When diesel "goes up the way it has spiked, that's the difference between profit and loss in a year," said Curt Blades, senior vice president at the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, a trade group representing tractor makers and other heavy-equipment manufacturers.
- President Trump announced $8 billion in one-time aid for farmers at a campaign rally in Kansas on Monday, where Republicans face a competitive Senate race.
State of play: Trucking and agricultural equipment experts say the most immediate savings come from using existing diesel engines more efficiently, like driving slower, idling less and ensuring tractors don't go over the same area twice.
Zoom in: Batteries that power truck drivers' sleeping quarters without idling the engine are gaining traction.
- Dragonfly Energy sells systems that recharge through the truck's diesel-powered engine while driving, then power air conditioning and other appliances while parked.
- The company projected a 160% increase in third-quarter trucking revenue, a bright spot amid otherwise sluggish financial performance.
The approach illustrates a fundamental tension in energy transitions: Does technology incrementally change an industry or revolutionize it?
- "We haven't even mastered leaving the truck off when it's not moving, let alone moving it with electricity," said Wade Seaburg, Dragonfly's chief commercial officer. "Let's master the little things first, and that's been a well-received message."
Yes, but: More dramatic changes are still percolating, particularly in electric trucking.
- Forum Mobility, which builds shared charging depots and leases electric trucks, says electric trucks have a roughly 40% fueling cost advantage over diesel in California, where diesel prices have topped $8 a gallon.
- The company has commitments from 25 carriers for 330 Tesla Semis and is building four additional charging depots in California.
Meanwhile, on the farm: New Holland, an agricultural equipment manufacturer, has spent more than a decade bringing methane-powered tractors to market, including those that can run on fuel derived from livestock manure.
What we're watching: "The increase in diesel prices has generated a little more interest," said Sean Dorosz, a product marketing manager at New Holland. But "I don't think it's going to be the one thing that makes them write a check to buy a methane tractor."
2. 🎭 There's permitting drama to spare
Fresh Trump team moves are shaking up the politics of the bipartisan Senate permitting bill as initial votes loom soon after the midterms.
Why it matters: Trump officials' willingness to approve — or fight — renewables projects could sway the bill's prospects.
Catch up quick: The Pentagon is advancing wind projects in Maine and South Dakota, and vowed more approvals will follow, the White House said yesterday.
- Remember that the Pentagon has been throttling projects by declining to offer once-common sign-offs the FAA needs.
- A White House official said the moves enable the bill to pass, and if it doesn't, Democrats' "internal fights" will be the reason.
State of play: Actions on those two projects is "obviously welcome, but there are hundreds of onshore wind projects in limbo that I'd like to see moving also, to get much needed gigawatts onto the grid," Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), a co-author, said in a statement.
- "I am optimistic that the White House appreciates the importance of good faith, forward momentum on these permits," he said.
🃏 And there's still another new wildcard. President Trump issued an executive order that bashes wind power and claims imported equipment poses national security risks.
- But it stops short of new restrictions or penalties, a decision Bloomberg notes will "likely be met with relief by an industry long opposed by the president."
- Instead, the administration will enter into talks with trading partners to address security risks from imported turbines and components, yesterday's order states.
The intrigue: This all landed the same week the Interior Department asked a federal judge to let it reconsider the Biden-era approval of another offshore wind project.
- The administration moves are yet another wrinkle in the intricate lobbying fight over the bill.
What we're watching: Whether there's political space at all for a deal, and whether it can happen in the condensed, busy lame duck session.
3. 🏃 Catch up quick on oil and gas


🇷🇺 Three tankers carrying Russian diesel are heading for the U.S., the shipping intelligence firm TankerTrackers reported this morning. Reuters reports one tanker en route.
- Why it matters: Multiple lawmakers from both parties say the imports, under President Trump's agreement with Moscow, may violate a 2022 law barring Russian oil and refined products.
📈 Brent crude prices are at their highest since May as traders weigh odds of renewed U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran.
- Why it matters: "Markets are increasingly worried about renewed escalation in the Persian Gulf, a scenario that could threaten oil flows that have so far remained remarkably resilient," ING analysts said in a note.
📝 President Trump issued an executive order declaring petroleum production, refining and logistics eligible for federal support under the Cold War-era Defense Production Act.
- What we're watching: The Energy Department said last night that $150 million will be made available to restart and expand domestic refining capacity.
4. 😬 AI is getting better at hacking power systems
The world's most advanced AI models are suddenly capable of blueprinting cyberattacks on critical services like power grids and water systems with alarming success rates, according to new research.
Why it matters: Critical infrastructure operators are running out of time.
- Top-tier frontier models are dangerously adept at mapping out attacks, new research from cybersecurity company Frenos shows, and it's only a matter of time before freely available AI models make such hacks easier to execute.
Driving the news: Frenos tested 10 AI models on their ability to plan attacks against industrial systems, such as the software that monitors water treatment processes.
- Three out of 10 models tested successfully constructed attack plans in roughly 90% of attempts.
5. 👓 Hot Reads: Nature, cars, hunting
Nations Meet in Armenia as Goal to Protect Nature Remains Out of Reach (NYT)
Amy says: Read until the end for an essential part: "The countries that are richest in biodiversity tend to be less wealthy financially. They often don't appreciate wealthier countries telling them not to exploit their own resources, especially since those countries have, in many cases, enriched themselves by doing just that."
The next generation of hybrids won't need much fuel (Bloomberg)
Amy says: File under: The future is rarely how we imagine it. Maybe the energy transition in the transportation sector will occur on the backs of technology that slowly squeezes oil out of the combustion engine instead of flipping a switch like fully electric cars do.
Trump Rule Lets Alaska Hunters Lure Bears With Bacon-Greased Doughnuts (NYT)
Amy says: It kind of feels like cheating if you're using such methods to lure in your target. Serious question: Doesn't that defeat the purpose of hunting? At that point, it's called shooting.
6. 🧮 Number of the day: $3.9 billion
That's venture funding for climate tech startups tied to the data center market in the first half of 2026, per new analysis from financial research firm PitchBook.
- That's already above the $2.4 billion in all of 2025 for this segment.
- "Non-lithium batteries are the top pick in climate tech," it states.
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