The Supreme Court on Monday will hear arguments in a case that could determine the fate of state-court lawsuits nationwide seeking climate damages from oil giants.

Why it matters: Billions and billions of dollars are at stake for the oil industry in dozens of cases brought by state and local governments.

• Governments face mounting costs from climate change that litigants link directly to the companies' products.

The big picture: SCOTUS is considering whether federal law blocks damage claims under state laws for the effects of interstate and global emissions.

🏀 State of play: It's specifically about litigation against Exxon and Suncor that the city and county of Boulder filed in 2018.

• But dozens of state-court cases are active in California, Connecticut, New York, Massachusetts and beyond.
• The cases aren't identical. But overall they accuse oil giants of concealing risks or making deceptive statements, and seek damages for climate-related costs.

Here are a few big themes and dynamics ahead of Monday morning...

💥 This is a blockbuster. The decision will be the culmination of an intense, years-long battle (unless it's not, but more on that in a moment).

• There's a high level of organizing, lobbying and advocacy among industry and climate advocates alike around these state cases.
• Industry and allied groups say the wave of cases threatens oil companies' very ability to operate.
• It's a sign that both sides see litigation as a critical battleground on climate. Take a spin through the case docket and you'll see what I mean.

🤷 A kicked can is possible. SCOTUS might not decide the question of federal preemption.

• That's because it's also considering whether it even has jurisdiction right now.
• The question turns on whether a Colorado Supreme Court decision to let Boulder's case proceed in state court can be reviewed at this stage.

👋 There's an important absence on the bench. Justice Samuel Alito this week recused himself from the case.

• "Justice Alito's recusal is likely bad news to the petitioners as he is among the more preemption-friendly justices on the Court," writes Adler in a recent blog post.

🤔 Trump policies are a new(ish) wrinkle. U.S. and industry briefs argue that addressing an interstate and global topic with these state claims is preempted by federal law and the Constitution.

• But watch whether the White House attempt to repeal key Clean Air Act authority over greenhouse gases is used as a cudgel against federal preemption claims.
• This won't be the main argument — instead, the litigants against oil companies contend these cases are well within the bounds of traditional, longstanding state powers. But it could surface.

💧 There could be ripple effects. A ruling in favor of the oil companies could also jeopardize separate state climate policies.

• New York and Vermont have "climate superfund" laws that assess damages against fossil fuel companies to help fund climate adaptation. They're both tied up in court.
• Several states are considering some version of these laws.

Here are a couple of noteworthy follow-ups on the preliminary Senate permitting deal that's a BFD for the future of energy infrastructure...

🏅 Winners and losers: "The clearest beneficiaries are construction, gas midstream, wind/solar developers, and electric equipment providers," Jefferies analysts said in a note.

• The intrigue: Among potential losers are transmission-oriented utilities that face new risks from a provision to create more competition in that space by ending their "right of first refusal" to build certain projects.
• Zoom in: The Jefferies note name-checks some specific companies that would benefit from the wider bill. They include solar and storage-focused engineering and construction firm SOLV Energy and other energy construction players, gas turbine giant GE Vernova and gas pipeline players like Williams Companies and Enbridge.
• What they're saying: "The permitting bill's many boosts to geothermal, transmission, and distributed energy resources will support 24/7 clean generation, grid expansion and 'bring-your-own capacity' schemes to support growing data center power demand," BloombergNEF analyst Derrick Flakoll said in emailed comments.

⚔️ Friction point: There's a tactical debate sweeping the whole world — er, the particular corner focused on the biggest permitting policy news in a long time.

• State of play: Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), a senior House Dem, is arguing that his party should refuse a lame duck deal because it will have a stronger hand to play next year. He's mixing it up online with critics of the view.
• The other side: Huffman and others with this view are getting plenty of pushback, like these comments from Adam Jentleson, founder and president of the Searchlight Institute and a former senior aide to the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

⛽ European officials are weighing a French proposal for EU nations to release 50 million barrels of diesel from strategic reserves, per Reuters and Politico.

• Why it matters: Trump administration officials have been urging the EU to release more supply — and publicly weighing new limits on U.S. exports.

🪖 The U.S. military in recent weeks sent two additional Patriot missile batteries to protect oil and gas facilities in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Axios' Barak Ravid scooped.

• Why it matters: The U.S. wanted to reassure both allies that it would protect their key energy facilities in case President Trump decides to resume major combat operations against Iran. Full story

Several futuristic space experiments involving orbital data centers and high-tech energy transfers launched into orbit aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket yesterday.

Driving the news: Among the 130 payloads aboard the Transporter-18 "rideshare" mission:

• Google's MVP satellite, designed to test the concept of solar-powered data centers in space.
• Protostar, a satellite from startup Star Catcher meant to transmit energy to another satellite — to bear out the idea of an orbital power grid.
• Reason-1, a satellite from startup Cowboy Space designed to collect solar energy in space and beam it to Earth.

Full story

An unlikely power player in the fight over solar on farmland (Politico)

Amy says: It is fascinating to see the evolution of people like this who have experiences that clearly influence them into strong opinions. I wonder why there aren't more people speaking out about actually making money from wind and solar on their land.

Mesabi Metallics to build a $15B lower-carbon steel mill in Iowa (Canary Media)

Amy says: The simplified, tl;dr version of this important read is that the coal-to-natural-gas shift that dropped emissions so much in the power sector over the last 15 years might finally be coming for the manufacturing sector.

Japan Has No Space for Solar Farms Apart From Old Golf Courses (Bloomberg)

Amy says: This is an intriguing re-use plan. I reckon getting support for this type of thing in the United States could never get past the golfing industry!

Global fossil fuel subsidies could top that amount this year as governments look to shield people from high energy costs, a UN Sustainable Development Group report finds.

Why it matters: "While subsidies and tax reductions cushion consumers by shifting the burden onto public finances, they simultaneously intensify debt pressures and crowd out longterm development spending," it states (h/t Bloomberg).