Axios Future of Defense Thought Bubble

April 08, 2025
🌊 Good morning from day two (of three) of Sea-Air-Space. I've walked around, snapped some photos and listened to admirals.
- Here's a vibe check.
Smart Brevity™ count: 395 words, 1½ mins.
1 big thing: Get your ship straight
President Trump last month promised new ships "very fast, very soon."
- But getting there will be difficult after years of decline. And for every vessel built in America, the Chinese pump out about 200.
- That gap and the measures needed to close it are coloring conversations here at Sea-Air-Space, the defense conference unfolding just south of the Capitol.
Why it matters: China's commercial ascendancy feeds its military. Beijing's fleet is the largest in the world.
- Meantime, U.S. Navy "programs and their shipbuilders are effectively made to operate in a perpetual state of triage," according to a federal watchdog, whose reviews of recent performance show "lead ship challenges regularly cascade to follow-on ships, causing entire programs to run aground."
Yes, but: Folks are searching for solutions. They acknowledge there exists no quick cure-all.
- At the show, McKinsey & Company floated the idea of private-equity intervention while BAE Systems touted a growing capacity for submarines after pouring $260 million into facilities in Florida and Kentucky.
- Before the show, Chris Kastner, the CEO of America's largest shipbuilder HII, told reporters he met with the president's advisers. "Any help we can provide to that team or to the administration to expand shipbuilding, we'll do that," he said.
- Separately, experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and Hudson Institute suggested leaning on South Korea and Japan, two U.S. allies second and third to China in market share.
Between the lines: The maritime industrial base looks different than other sectors; mom-and-pop stores still supply key parts.
What they're saying: "The conversation is louder than it's been," acting Chief of Naval Operations Adm. James Kilby said on the conference sidelines. "It's happening in Congress and in the White House and in industry."
- But awareness only goes so far. It's "going to take a national effort to get after" the problem, Kilby said. (He declined to discuss the effects of tariffs when asked.)
Go deeper: Saronic, now valued at $4 billion, wants its own futuristic shipyard
📩 What's your solution? What should the U.S. do to regain the upper hand?
- Reply to this email and let me know!
🖋️ Thanks to David Lawler and Matt Piper for the edits.
Sign up for Axios Future of Defense Thought Bubble


