Hi, Tuesday. On this day in 1854, the first-ever Iowa State Fair concluded in Fairfield, per Notes on Iowa.

🌧️ Weather: Mostly cloudy, then slight chance of rain showers, with a high of 69 and a low of 54.

🎂 Happy birthday to our members Rick Tollakson and Celaysa Mora Teav!

Today’s newsletter is 829 words — a 3-minute read.

Republicans dominate Iowa politics right now, but economic dissatisfaction, open seats and an unusually engaged electorate could give Democrats an opening.

Why it matters: Iowa Democrats are hoping the midterm election is their breakthrough moment after a decade of Republicans wielding a statehouse trifecta and holding most of the state's congressional seats.

Flashback: Some pundits may reduce Iowa to a solidly red state, but Donna Hoffman, a political science professor at the University of Northern Iowa, says the state has leaned more purple over the past 20 years.

• In 2018, during President Trump's first midterm election, Democrats won each of the state's congressional districts except the historically conservative 4th District.
• Four years later, during former President Biden's midterm, Republicans swept all four seats.
• "Iowa's a swing state, is what I would say," Hoffman says. "Sometimes it is red, sometimes it is more purple."

State of play: With the Nov. 3 election approaching, Democrats are bullish about winning the governor's race and flipping Republican-held congressional seats, Hoffman says.

Hoffman points to some unique dynamics shaping this year's election:

1. Frustration with Republicans: The GOP has controlled Iowa's governorship and Legislature since 2017, while Republicans also hold the White House and Congress.

• That gives voters dissatisfied with the cost of living a party to blame, Hoffman says.
• "The message may not be as important as just being different," she says.

2. The independent vote: Republicans have a sizable voter registration advantage, making independent voters especially important for Democrats.

• As of Oct. 1, Iowa had about 713,300 active registered Republicans, 533,200 Democrats and 572,200 no-party voters, though it's hard to fairly compare numbers since voter registration laws changed in 2022, she says.
• Dissatisfaction with the status quo and major interest in the governor's race could motivate independent voters who typically skip midterm elections.

3. Bipartisan appeal: In that effort to reach independents, Democrats and Republicans have focused on bipartisanship, Hoffman says. Sand has critiqued the two-party system, while Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek has highlighted his willingness to work across party lines.

• GOP U.S. Senate candidate Ashley Hinson has also distanced herself from Trump.

What we're watching: Whether voter enthusiasm affects down-ballot races, including Iowa's secretary of agriculture contest between Republican Mike Naig and Democrat Chris Jones.

Roosters Coffee, a new coffee shop with a drive-thru, has opened in Cumming.

How it started: Owner Haley Gremler grew up in town and recently graduated from Iowa State after studying business management. Her father, Mark Gremler, owned land along G-14 and North 43rd Street, and her family decided to build the farmhouse-themed coffee shop.

• Just down the road, her sister, Madison Gremler, owns Black Silo Roasting Co. and air-roasts the beans that are used for the shop.

The menu: The shop serves several specialty drinks, including a limoncello cloud cold brew, strawberry banana matcha, pumpkin cortado and affogatos made with espresso or matcha.

• The food menu includes breakfast sandwiches, acai bowls and baked goods.
• Gremler says the menu was created with a consultant from Seattle, where she also got barista training.

Plus: A speakeasy is planned for the other side of the building next year.

If you go: 5:30am-4pm Monday–Friday, 7am-3pm Saturday-Sunday

• 4301 Cumming Ave.

🛍️ Many Hands Thrift Market is closing its Merle Hay location on Nov. 9. (News release)

🗳️ Republican Chris McGowan is favored to defeat Democrat Dave Dawson in Iowa's 4th Congressional District, but voter turnout there could also help decide competitive statewide races. (IPR)

🙏 Des Moines Bishop William Joensen says his recent White House visit was exploited for political purposes after a private meeting with other bishops turned into a photo opportunity with President Trump. (WHO-Radio)

🏳️‍⚧️ Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Josh Turek is facing bipartisan criticism over a new ad where he opposes allowing transgender women to play in women's sports, and supports blocking Medicaid funding for gender-affirming surgeries. (Iowa Capital Dispatch)

After the Halloween sun sets, prepare yourself for the scariest thing of all — the end of daylight saving time.

Why it matters: Sunday marks the start of much earlier sunsets in Iowa.

By the numbers: Sunset in Des Moines will be 6:10pm on Halloween. On Nov. 1, it will be at 5:08pm.

• And by Dec. 1, it will be at 4:45pm.

The bottom line: We'll give it six months, give or take.

📺 The last pitch: Gubernatorial candidates Rob Sand and Zach Lahn will debate tonight in Cedar Rapids on KCRG and The Gazette from 6:30-8pm.

• IA-3 candidates U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn and Democratic challenger Sarah Trone-Garriott will also debate tonight on KCCI at 9pm.