Next week's presidential debate may be President Biden's last chance to win over some of the single-issue voters with cryptocurrency on their minds.

Why it matters: Much to everyone's surprise, both candidates for U.S. president appear to be taking the topic of cryptocurrency seriously as an election issue, but only the challenger has made clear statements about the topic from the stump.

State of play: Former President Trump is embracing digital assets. While the Biden administration has thus far been seen as hostile.

• The former president has used the topic to contrast the two leaders.

Yes, but: Axios is hearing that Biden's political team is making overtures to the industry, but that remains behind the scenes.

Friction point: The Biden executive order of 2022 has been the public template: tepid language on the positive side ("responsible financial innovation"), but unreserved on the negative ("strong steps to reduce the risks").

Biden could undercut Trump, however, if he finds something about the industry that he likes and says so.

Zoom in: There are a few issues that the president could pick up that are broadly popular, and that might throw Trump off his game:

• Bitcoin mining. It's an industry that the United States could win if it chose to. While the environmental concerns are salient, they can be mitigated if the nation decides it wants to lead the right way.
• Stablecoins. These instruments have been the most successful, most widely used single application of distributed ledgers. Bonus: Everyone who uses them prefers the ones that lean on the U.S. dollar.
• Ether's status. The president's SEC chair won't say whether or not Ethereum's coin is a security, but his CFTC chair and many others will say they don't think it is. Biden could take a side and that would turn heads, especially with ETFs imminent.

What we're watching: Trump is likely to bring up the topic if the moderators don't, probably calling Biden out.

💭 My thought bubble: Trump may bet that Biden will, at worst, stumble in response or, at best, equivocate in a way that turns off pro-crypto voters.

• That could backfire.

A decisive statement from Biden either way — even a blanket condemnation of Bitcoin and its ilk — might neutralize any gains Trump's shift has earned him.

The bottom line: Biden is the one to watch at the debate. If he makes politician-like non-statements about cryptocurrency, then nothing has changed.

• But if he offers an olive branch — without qualifying it — it could make some of crypto's very well-resourced leaders second-guess their newfound fervor for Trump. If Biden goes the other way, it will clear up any doubt from the anti-crypto electorate about where he stands.

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Younger investors like cryptocurrency a lot more than older investors.

• That might come as no surprise, but it's eye-opening to see how much they do like it.

The fine print: This is from a Bank of America survey conducted in January and February of 1,007 U.S. adults with at least $3 million in investable assets — not exactly your average man on the street.

Why it matters: This difference might help explain Trump's conversion to crypto as an election topic.

• First, it appeals to people with deep pockets, which can help him out of his fundraising disadvantage.
• Second, it might be a topic that gets some voters who are marginal about showing up to the polls to get out and vote for him.
• It's got that pocketbook angle for some younger voters.

The big picture: Biden is thought to have the advantage with older voters.

Coinbase International is offering futures markets on tokens that haven't launched.

Why it matters: For retail investors, these kinds of markets can aid in price discovery as they consider whether or not they want to buy a token when it starts trading.

• It also shows Coinbase getting competitive in an area adjacent to one that Binance has led internationally.

How it works: The pre-launch futures market will work like any other futures market. Investors will be buying or selling based on what they believe a given token will be worth at launch, based on all the publicly available information about it.

• When the token launches, it will convert to a regular futures market. In other words, this isn't a spot market. To get the actual token, investors would have to cash out and go buy it.
• This offering will be open to institutional investors and approved retail traders. It's not available in the U.S., the United Kingdom or Canada.

Between the lines: Now that Coinbase has shown up on the international stage, it's moving quickly to establish itself on all fronts of the global cryptocurrency trade.

Zoom out: A hot product for international exchanges has been what's known as the initial exchange offering (IEO), where startups run pre-sales on an exchange for the actual token. IEOs offer investors ways to buy a token pre-launch, sometimes using different arrangements to help crypto teams maximize their take on a launch or aid in price discovery.

• Exchanges vet projects before allowing them to run an IEO, which gives buyers a bit more confidence that they aren't throwing their money away.

What we're watching: When and if Coinbase offers IEOs.

💻 MicroStrategy has almost $15 billion in bitcoin after its most recent $775 million purchase. (MicroStrategy)

🥷 Leading privacy coin monero (XMR) has nearly recovered all it lost after Binance delisted it. (CoinDesk)

🍬 It's been a bad season for free magic space money (that is, airdrops). (Unchained)

😶 The creator of the DJT meme coin is felon Martin Shkreli. (The Block)

A milestone news dump hit with the midweek holiday: the SEC closed its monthslong investigation into Ethereum 2.0.

Why it matters: A sigh of vindication was audible from at least one major Ethereum firm that's been locked in a battle with the regulator.

Zoom in: Consensys, the company behind the Ethereum-based wallet MetaMask, touted the development Tuesday night as a "major win" for Ethereum developers.

• The SEC would not be pursuing charges against the company, according to Consensys.

Context: Consensys sued the SEC in April seeking a court order to halt an investigation that started months earlier, and "to stop its unlawful power grab," per the company's blog.

• The lawsuit also seeks a declaration that ether is not a security.

Behind the scenes: When Axios asked Consensys chief Joe Lubin about the suit in Austin last month, he said: "It's critical that we get clarity from the courts on this because if we sat on our heels and the SEC was on the offensive, they wouldn't have to answer certain questions."

• "They could just continue to attack us and other companies in granular fashion."

What we're watching: The letter from the SEC says that it "must in no way be construed as indicating that the party has been exonerated or that no action may ultimately result from the staff's investigation."