Walmart's growth streak continued in the fourth quarter, though investors weighed strong results against a cautious full-year outlook in John Furner's first earnings report as CEO.

• Why it matters: As the nation's largest retailer, Walmart is widely viewed as a real-time gauge of U.S. consumer health — and its results suggest shoppers are still prioritizing price and convenience amid economic uncertainty.

🛒 Between the lines: Executives described spending as "resilient," though U.S. customers have been "choiceful" — with higher-income shoppers still driving growth.

• 💸 Furner said most of Walmart's product share gains again came from households earning more than $100,000 a year, suggesting Walmart's value proposition is resonating beyond lower-income households.
• For households earning below $50,000, "we continue to see that wallets are stretched."

⏱️ Zoom in: Both cohorts are emphasizing convenience nearly as much as price — a shift reflected in digital's strength, Furner said.

• E-commerce sales were up 27%, while customers using fast delivery — defined as under three hours — grew more than 60% for the year.

🤖 What we're watching: Walmart has also been expanding its use of artificial intelligence across supply chain and digital operations.

• Its AI assistant, Sparky, is gaining traction: Average order values are roughly 35% higher for users than non-users, Furner said.
• David Guggina, CEO of Walmart U.S., added that roughly half of app users have engaged with Sparky.

📊 By the numbers: Walmart said Q4 revenue rose 5.6% from a year ago, to $190.7 billion, while operating income grew 10.8%, outpacing sales.

• For fiscal 2026, the company expects net sales to rise 3.5%–4.5%, with operating income growing 6%–8%.

📉 Market impact: The outlook came in more cautious than analysts expected, sending shares swinging for much of the day before closing down 1.4%.

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Researchers hailed Kalshi's prediction market data in a new Fed paper, delivering a significant vote of confidence in the emerging platform as it weaves its way into the economic mainstream.

🔎 Zoom in: The researchers found Kalshi markets may outperform traditional derivatives and survey forecasts on key economic data.

• The findings suggest prediction markets could become a more reliable gauge of expectations — and potentially inform monetary policy decisions, they said.

🧐 Yes, but: Not everyone is convinced that Kalshi's markets are perfectly calibrated.

• Researchers at Europe's Centre for Economic Policy Research say they found evidence of "favorite–longshot bias" — a common betting-market quirk in markets where traders tend to overvalue unlikely outcomes and undervalue heavy favorites.

The big picture: The Fed paper is a credibility win for Kalshi and the broader prediction market industry — and a setback for state regulators, gambling groups and critics who argue these platforms are little more than speculative betting.

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🚜 Deere stock jumped after the agricultural equipment maker increased its profit outlook. CEO John May said the company is "encouraged by the ongoing recovery in demand." (Bloomberg)

🛌 Wayfair's annual sales rose for the first time since 2020, when furniture sales were flourishing during the pandemic. Revenue was up 5.1% to $12.5 billion. (CNBC)

✈️ Airbus shares fell after the jet maker blamed engine supplier Pratt & Whitney for production shortfalls. (WSJ)

🍨 Nestlé plans to sell the rest of its ice cream business. It's the latest example of Big Food trimming its portfolio to focus on its best-performing brands. (FT)

The Chicago Bears are edging closer to moving to northwest Indiana.

State of play: The historic NFL franchise today won unanimous approval from an Indiana House committee for the creation of a stadium authority aimed at luring the team to a site in Hammond, Indiana, AP reports.

• The team issued a statement saying, "We are committed to finishing the remaining site-specific necessary due diligence to support our vision to build a world-class stadium near the Wolf Lake area in Hammond."
• Wolf Lake is about 15 miles from the Bears' current stadium, Soldier Field.

The other side: Illinois is still weighing a bill to incentivize the Bears to stay in the state, though not necessarily in the city of Chicago.

💭 Nathan's thought bubble: The question is whether the Bears are using Indiana as bargaining leverage, or whether they're truly considering leaving their home state.