The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's global tariffs today. For businesses and investors, the big question is what comes next.

Catch up quick: In the 6-3 ruling this morning, the nation's highest court said many of the administration's tariffs were illegal.

• 👏 That sparked a wave of cheers from business trade groups, which quickly called for billions in refunds to cover the extra import costs companies paid over the last year — along with a broader reset of tariff policy.
• 😡 Within hours, Trump lashed out at the justices who struck down his policy, calling them a "disgrace to our nation."
• 🔄 He then announced he would impose new 10% tariffs on all countries, replacing part of the duties that had been overturned just three hours earlier.

📈 Market impact: Stocks moved higher after the court's ruling, but only modestly. The S&P 500 closed 0.7% higher, indicating the decision — or Trump's move to replace the tariffs — had already largely been priced in.

• Investors bought shares of companies most exposed to tariffs, such as Home Depot and Abercrombie, betting either on relief from duties or the prospect of refunds (more on this below).
• Shares of furniture companies, whose import levies had been paused by Trump last month, were also notable gainers, Wayfair and RH among them.

🤷 Yes, but: Uncertainty has reentered the arena.

• The ruling could affect existing trade agreements negotiated against the backdrop of the IEEPA tariffs — deals covering trillions of dollars in commerce.
• Trump's call for new tariffs could trigger fresh negotiations and another round of exemption requests, "potentially prolonging the tariff rate uncertainty and resulting [in] sourcing paralysis well into 2026," Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, supply chain industry practice lead at Moody's, noted.

"The market is uncertain about how to react given the lack of clarity," Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities said, per Bloomberg.

Reporting by Axios' Courtenay Brown, Kelly Tyko and April Rubin

Thousands of companies that paid tariffs are gearing up for a high-stakes fight to recover an estimated $120 billion, Axios' Pete Gannon writes.

⏳ Reality check: It could be a very long wait.

Between the lines: The Court's decision this morning didn't address refunds.

• So, without any Supreme consensus on remedies, the justices effectively left it to lower courts to sort out what happens next.
• That could take years — a reality not lost on Trump, who said at a news conference that "we'll end up being in court the next five years."

Zoom in: Justice Brett Kavanaugh noted in his dissent that the government may ultimately have to refund billions to importers who paid the IEEPA tariffs — even though some companies may have already passed those costs on to consumers.

• "As was acknowledged at oral argument," he wrote, "the refund process is likely to be a 'mess.'"

Among deficit-wary bond investors, the ruling revived worries about the potential impact of refunding billions of tariff dollars, Axios' Jeffrey Cane writes.

• The U.S. government has some $38 trillion-plus of debt that needs to be serviced.

What they're saying: "Tariffs had been functioning as a shadow tax that helped fund spending without explicitly raising taxes," Mark Malek, chief investment officer of Siebert Financial, writes.

• "Remove that and the deficit widens, borrowing rises, and historically that is the type of development that leans on the bond market and pressures yields higher."

Reality check: Still, the market reaction today was relatively muted.

• Treasury prices slipped, pushing the yield — which moves in the opposite direction — on the 10-year Treasury note, a benchmark for mortgages and other consumer rates, up slightly to 4.08%.

And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in Dallas this afternoon that the use of other tariff mechanisms "will result in virtually unchanged tariff revenue in 2026."

🕹️ Microsoft's longtime head of gaming, Phil Spencer, is leaving the company, which reported a bigger-than-expected revenue drop in its Xbox business last quarter. (CNBC)

⚖️ Tesla lost its bid to overturn a $243 million jury verdict tied to a crash involving the company's Autopilot driver assistance system. (TechCrunch)