U.S. gasoline prices jumped sharply as crude oil surged amid American and Israeli strikes on Iran and mounting fears of supply disruptions.

• ⛽️ The national average price of unleaded hit $3.11 per gallon today, up 11 cents overnight, according to AAA.
• It was the biggest single-day spike since March 4, 2022, according to GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan.

Between the lines: Tom Kloza, a longtime oil analyst now working for Gulf Oil, tells Axios that he expects the national average price to reach a high of $3.25–$3.50 in the coming weeks.

• Prices will jump even higher in the western U.S., he predicts.

💸 Follow the money: "That moves very quickly to the pump," Kloza says. "They will rocket higher when they're moving on geopolitics like this."

• As a general rule of thumb, every $1 increase in a barrel of oil translates into a 2.5 cent increase in gas prices, he says.
• 🛢️ The oil price spike will also lead to increases in diesel, jet fuel, heating oil and natural gas prices, likely increasing the cost of shipping, airline tickets and home heat, Kloza adds.

Reality check:

Even $3.50 per gallon gasoline is not devastating to the economy. And it's unlikely to lead to a significant change in purchasing behavior, as Americans have dealt with much worse spikes in the past.

• Plus, U.S. supplies of gasoline are in good shape — and American oil companies could benefit from price increases, leading to higher profits and more oilfield jobs.
• "I don't think we're looking at apocalyptic moves for gasoline," Kloza says. "Now, I say that and everything's changing very quickly."

The latest: Trump's move to backstop insurance for energy tankers and deploy Navy escorts in the Strait of Hormuz helped cool prices, with Brent crude back around $80.

The bottom line: The ripple effects of the attacks on Iran are still unfolding.

New Target CEO Michael Fiddelke laid out his plan to turn around the struggling Minneapolis retailer this morning.

• Investors liked what they heard.

Driving the news: A 2.5% drop in Q4 comparable sales capped a difficult year for Target, but Fiddelke framed it as a transition year, Axios' Kelly Tyko reports.

• After three years of declining comparable sales, Fiddelke is predicting growth ahead. The company is guiding for roughly 2% net sales growth in 2026 and expects sales to grow in every quarter of the year.

The big picture: A key to Fiddelke's plan is getting the "Tar-zhay" buzz back by fixing the company's home and apparel categories, which have been losing market share, Axios Twin Cities' Nick Halter writes from an event held later at the company's headquarters.

• It's plan: faster fashion, with inventory shifting every four to six weeks as the company detects new trends.
• It's planning a home goods overhaul, a step up in sports merch and a new drive in beauty.
• And more food. Grocery has been a bright spot, as the company reported 8% average annual sales growth since 2019, with an increased focus on private label and upcoming brands.

📈 Market impact: Target shares closed up 6.7%.

📺 Best Buy's holiday sales declined, but the electronics retailer's stock rose on encouraging news about its profitability. (CNBC)

⚖️ Paramount's deal for WBD is facing a DOJ probe, but antitrust experts expect it to overcome regulatory hurdles. (Axios)

⚠️ Private market firms acknowledged pain ahead as private credit funds see a wave of withdrawals. (Bloomberg)

The burger wars are getting spicy.

State of play: Burger King posted a video of U.S.-Canada president Tom Curtis taking an enthusiastic bite of the chain's newly overhauled Whopper.

• It was a clear swipe at McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski, who was pilloried on social media for taking a not-so-enthusiastic bite out of the company's new Big Arch burger.
• "I love this product. It is so good," Kempczinski said on the video, not so convincingly.

Fun fact: TikTok users posted parody videos of Kempczinski's underwhelming chomp, with one topping 1 million likes, People noted.

💭 Nathan's thought bubble: This is a good lesson for consumer-facing companies: Don't post video of your executives using your product unless they look genuinely passionate about it.