Mainstream organizations are rapidly embracing prediction markets — even as roughly a dozen states have yet to legalize sports betting.

• 📊 The latest: The owner of fight entertainment group UFC announced a partnership today with Polymarket to power live fan-prediction data in its broadcasts.

⚖️ Catch up quick: Sports betting is regulated at the state level, while prediction markets are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

• Their lines only started to blur last year, when predictions markets started testing the waters with sports event contracts.
• Despite some legal challenges around the sports contracts, the CFTC has so far allowed the model to spread. Even if they eventually lose in court, that would now probably be "years away," sports gambling analyst Dustin Gouker wrote in his newsletter The Closing Line.

🤝 State of play: DraftKings and FanDuel — the market share leaders in American sports gambling — announced in recent days that they are launching their own prediction market products in 2025 in states where sports betting isn't currently legal.

• Robinhood rolled out sports event contracts earlier this year.

Beyond sports, Yahoo Finance just announced a deal to integrate Polymarket probability data into its investor tools, while Intercontinental Exchange last month agreed to invest up to $2 billion for around a 20% stake in Polymarket.

🥊 Friction point: The sportsbooks have dropped their pursuit of betting licenses in Nevada and decided to launch prediction markets there instead. But regulators in Nevada have already expressed opposition to the new approach.

The bottom line: The battle isn't over, but prediction markets are mounting a furious charge.

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Disney shares plunged nearly 8% today after the company reported disappointing revenue and warned of a prolonged distribution fight with YouTube TV, Axios' Christine Wang reports.

The big picture: Disney+ and Hulu's continued growth was overshadowed by a streaming-era carriage disagreement and declines in the legacy TV business.

Zoom in: Entertainment revenue for the fiscal Q4 declined 6% from a year ago, dragged down by a 21% drop in linear network revenue.

• Yes, but: Disney's streaming business helped offset difficulties. While the overall entertainment segment reported a 35% plunge in operating income, the direct-to-consumer unit's operating income surged 39%.
• Disney reported a total of 196 million Disney+ and Hulu subscribers.

Catch up quick: Millions of YouTube TV subscribers lost access to Disney channels in late October after the companies failed to reach a new distribution deal.

What we're watching: Disney CFO Hugh Johnston said during an earnings call today that negotiations with YouTube "could go for a little while."

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"It's our industry that forces, I guess, even government to get back together and to open up."

📞 Verizon is poised to cut about 15,000 jobs in the next week. It's losing postpaid phone subscribers and is facing stiff competition for wireless and home internet customers. (WSJ)

💉 Pfizer is selling its stake in mRNA vaccine partner BioNTech. The COVID-19 shot collaboration between the two companies will continue. (Bloomberg)

The pushback against artificial colors has brought us "pale yellow" Flamin' Hot Cheetos.

• Such is the colorful description Bloomberg affixed to the new version of PepsiCo's cheesy snack, now without the synthetic dyes that Health and Human Services Secretary RFK Jr. has campaigned against.

🧪 State of play: PepsiCo food experts have been in the lab seeking a natural way to color their products — and they're dubbing their "naked" creation lineup as Simply NKD.

• The new products hitting stores Dec. 1 include Doritos Simply NKD Nacho Cheese, Doritos Simply NKD Cool Ranch, Cheetos Simply NKD Puffs and Cheetos Simply NKD Flamin' Hot. The original versions will still be available.

🗣️ What they're saying: "It wasn't based on consumer data or trends," PepsiCo Foods US CEO Rachel Ferdinando said. "No insight would ever suggest removing color from Doritos or Cheetos because these are fan favorites."

💭 Nathan's thought bubble: That does not sound like someone who's confident this will go well.