Axios Closer

July 29, 2025
Tuesday โ .
Today's newsletter is 553 words, a 2-minute read.
๐ The dashboard: The S&P 500 closed down 0.3%.
- That's despite signals that the U.S. and China could extend their tariff truce past the Aug. 12 deadline.
๐ฅถ Today's stock spotlight: Novo Nordisk (-21.8%), the Danish drug giant behind Ozempic and Wegovy, slashed its full-year guidance, struggling against nagging competition from compounders and rival Eli Lilly.
1 big thing: All aboard!
Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern officially announced an $85 billion merger agreement, creating what would be the country's first transcontinental railroad linking the East and West coasts.
- ๐ The combination, Union Pacific argues, will result in faster, improved service and fewer trucks on America's highways.
- ๐ Unions and trade groups argue it could lead to job losses, safety issues, price increases and fewer choices.
Zoom in: The deal calls for Union Pacific to acquire Norfolk Southern for stock and cash, valuing Norfolk at $320 per share.
- It would create a combined company valued at over $250 billion.
What's next: The deal requires approval from the U.S. Surface Transportation Board, whose review process will allow stakeholders to weigh in, Axios Pro's Colin Campbell reports.
Between the lines: That review will assess its impact on competition. As the NYT notes, the combination would result in two-fifths of America's rail freight being handled by a single company.
- But the companies are likely banking on favorable treatment from the Trump administration, as the president has pushed for deregulation in the industry.
- The companies hope to close the transaction by early 2027.
2. UnitedHealth stung by costs
UnitedHealth Group's stock continued its year-long plunge today, closing the day down 7.5% after the insurer warned that escalating medical costs will continue to drag down its earnings.
- ๐ต UNH's medical care ratio soared by 4.3 percentage points to 89.4% in the second quarter as costs "significantly exceeded pricing trends."
- ๐ฉบ In other words, patients are using their insurance plans at a much higher rate than expected.
Zoom in: The company reestablished its earnings outlook after suspending it in May, and said this morning that it doesn't expect to return to earnings growth until 2026.
๐ท๏ธ The impact: Customers can expect "strongly responsive pricing for 2026" as "we are intensifying our remediation actions," Tim Noel, CEO of the company's UnitedHealthcare insurance division, said on a conference call.
The bottom line: As costs balloon, so too will premiums.
3. Other happenings
๐งผ Procter & Gamble disappointed investors with its full-year forecast, saying it sees "consumer anxiety" stemming from President Trump's tariff and immigration policy shifts. The household goods company said it would raise prices on some products in the U.S. to offset tariff impacts. (Reuters)
๐ Stellantis, the maker of Chrysler, Fiat and Jeep, said U.S. tariffs will cost it around $1.7 billion in 2025 and are taking a toll on its North America business. (CBS News)
๐ง Spotify's user growth blew past investor expectations in its second-quarter, but the company reported its first quarterly loss in a year, citing "social charges," or higher taxes in certain countries related to employee compensation awards. (Axios)
4. ๐ป Boo! It's Summerween
It's still swimsuit season โ but the giant skeletons are already stirring this Summerween, Axios' Kelly Tyko writes.
- ๐ Big-box retailers โ including Home Depot, Lowe's, Walmart and Costco โ are moving early on Halloween as tariffs threaten to raise prices and fuel even more urgency among consumers.
๐ซฃ What they're saying: "With tariffs potentially driving up costs later this year, many shoppers are buying now to get ahead," Stephanie Carls, RetailMeNot retail insights expert, tells Axios. "Shoppers know if they wait, the best items might be gone or [be] more expensive."
๐ฐThe bottom line: Halloween is big money for retailers, which is why Summerween has turned the spooky season into a summer shopping event.
๐๏ธ On this day in 1909, a relatively new player in the industry called General Motors Corp. bought Cadillac, one of the country's leading luxury car brands, for $4.5 million of GM stock.
Today's newsletter was edited by Pete Gannon and copy edited by Sheryl Miller.
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